Wizards vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 3

The Washington Wizards have been frisky since adding veterans like Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart, as they’ve won three of their last 10 games and picked up a road win over the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday night.

Now, Washington hits the road to play Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat on Monday night.

Miami is playing the second night of a back-to-back after it blew a 19-point lead and lost in overtime against the New York Knicks on Sunday. The Heat are firmly in the mix for a play-in tournament spot in the East, but they are still under .500 entering their 60th game of the 2024-25 season.

Oddsmakers have favored Miami in this matchup, and rightfully so, but can it hold off this Wizards team that is showing some signs of life since the trade deadline?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional matchup.

Wizards vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Wizards +8.5 (-108)
Heat -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Wizards: +300
Heat: -380

Total

218.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Wizards vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, MNMT
Wizards record: 11-48
Heat record: 28-31

Wizards vs. Heat Injury Reports

Wizards Injury Report

Saddiq Bey – out
Malcolm Brogdon – out
Colby Jones – out
Jordan Poole – out
Jaylen Martin – out

Heat Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Wizards vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Washington Wizards Best NBA Prop Bet

Khris Middleton UNDER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Khris Middleton is an interesting target in the prop market:

Veteran forward Khris Middleton has played in four games with the Washington Wizards, and while he has helped raise their ceiling, I’m still not sold on him stuffing the stat sheet on Monday against a tough Miami Heat defense.

Here’s a look at some key Middleton stats over his four games in Washington:

Game	Minutes	PRA
vs. Milwaukee	24:32	19
vs. Brooklyn	25:53	15
vs. Portland	24:01	17
@ Charlotte	24:04	28

While Middleton did clear this prop against the Hornets on Saturday night, Miami is much better than the team that has the worst net rating in the NBA over its last 10 games.

Plus, Middleton’s ceiling is limited by the fact that he’s played no more than 25:53 in a single game or taken more than 10 shots. I can’t trust him at this number on Monday.

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 19.5 Points (-115)

Bam Adebayo was electric against the Knicks on Sunday night, scoring 30 points on 12-of-16 shooting from the field.

He’s now scored 20 or more points in nine of his last 14 games, averaging 22.1 points per game over that stretch, shooting 57.4 percent from the field. He should dominate the Wizards, who have the No. 28 defensive rating in the NBA.

Wizards vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Washington has struggled as a road underdog this season, going under .500 against the spread while posting an average scoring margin of -12.5 points per game in those contests.

Meanwhile, Miami is over .500 against the spread as a home favorite, and it really needs this matchup after the overtime loss to New York on Sunday.

The Heat have just a half-game lead on the Orlando Magic for the No. 7 seed, and they already have a 20-point win over Washington this season.

Washington has been a hard team to trust all season given its league-worst net rating, even though adding some veterans has raised its ceiling.

I’ll lay the points with Miami on Monday in what it should consider as a must-win matchup.

Pick: Heat -8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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