Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kelsey Plum, Tempo vs. Lynx on Thursday)

Several potential title contenders are in action in the WNBA on Thursday night, as the New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury are all at home and looking to move up in the standings.

Tonight’s WNBA Games

Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty
Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx
Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury

Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally (both questionable) could return for the Liberty on Thursday night, and I’m staying away from that game in today’s column since the line could move quite a bit depending on their statuses.

Still, there is a side and a player prop that I’m taking on Thursday, as Los Angeles Sparks star Kelsey Plum has been one of the hottest players in the league through four games.

It’s been a great start to the season in these plays – I’m up nearly six units – so let’s keep the momentum going for this three-game slate on May 21.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 18-9 (+5.87 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 192-173-2 (+8.77 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Toronto Tempo +6.5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Lynx
Kelsey Plum OVER 20.5 Points (-130)

Toronto Tempo +6.5 (-108) vs. Minnesota Lynx

The Tempo are 4-1 against the spread this season, and they’re 3-0 against the spread on the road, winning two of those games outright as underdogs.

Toronto has a higher ceiling than most expansion teams, as Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey are two star guards that can carry this offense when needed. Plus, rookie Kiki Rice has really come on as of late scoring the ball.

The Lynx remain without their best player in MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, and they’re coming off a home loss to Chicago in their last game.

While Minnesota should contend for a title once Collier is back, this team isn’t nearly as potent without the star guard. In fact, the Lynx rank just 10th in the WNBA in net rating and offensive rating through four games.

Toronto, on the other hand, has the No. 3 offense in the league and is now sixth in net rating after beating the Mercury the last time it played. So, I think getting two possessions with the Tempo is a pretty solid value on Thursday night.

Kelsey Plum OVER 20.5 Points (-130)

Sparks star guard Kelsey Plum is off to a great start in the 2026 season, averaging 26.8 points per game while shooting 59.4 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from beyond the arc. Plum has taken at least 14 shots in every game (she’s averaging 16.0 per game), giving her a pretty solid floor when it comes to any scoring prop.

I’m surprised to see this number set at 20.5, as Plum has at least 25 points in every game this season. The star guard is getting to the free-throw line nearly seven times per game, and she’s always been a lethal 3-point shooter, posting two games with four 3-pointers made in the 2026 season.

Phoenix is just eighth in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, and it’s 12th in the league in both opponent 3s made per game and opponent 3-point percentage. Plum should be able to come near her season average once again on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google