Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Tempo vs. Mercury on Tuesday)

Tuesday’s WNBA action features a standalone game between a pair of 2-2 teams, as the Toronto Tempo remain on the road to face the Phoenix Mercury.

Brittney Sykes and the Tempo split back-to-back games with the Los Angeles Sparks on Friday and Sunday, covering the spread as road dogs in both of them. Now, the Tempo are road underdogs for the third time this season against a Phoenix team that made the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season.

Phoenix no longer has star forward Satou Sabally – she signed with New York in free agency – but it still has a solid core centered around Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas. The Mercury have wins over the Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky this season, ranking third in the W in net rating.

So, how should we bet on this matchup?

I’m eyeing just one play for this matchup, and it’s one that has hit two times already this season in my Peter’s Points column.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 15-8 (+4.22 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 190-172-2 (+7.13 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Toronto Tempo +7.5 (-105) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Toronto Tempo +7.5 (-105) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Tempo are a better team than oddsmakers are giving them credit for, as they have two All-Star caliber guards in Sykes and Marina Mabrey running the show.

So far in the 2026 season, the Tempo rank sixth in net rating, fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating while going 3-1 against the spread. Toronto only failed to cover against the Washington Mystics in its season opener, losing that game at home by three points.

Oddsmakers had the Tempo as 7.5-point dogs in back-to-back games against Los Angeles, yet Toronto lost by four and won by 10 in those matchups.

The Mercury are a slight step up from the Sparks, though their net rating is being carried by a blowout win over Las Vegas in their season opener. Phoenix is just 1-2 since, losing by double digits to Golden State and by four at home to the short-handed Minnesota Lynx.

The loss of Sabally certainly has lowered the Mercury’s ceiling this season, and I don’t believe that they’re three possessions better than Toronto, which has shown that it could be a playoff contender in 2026.

I’ll take the points in this matchup, as this line seems to be an overreaction to Phoenix’s season-opening win. I’d likely lean the other way if the Mercury were 4.5 or 5.5-point favorites on Tuesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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