Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Dream, Lynx-Aces)

Fresh off of a quick 2-0 sweep on Tuesday, I’m back with a few more WNBA best bets for the two matchups on Wednesday night.

A little 2-0 sweep on Tuesday!

🏀 Sun-Sparks UNDER 156 ✅
🏀 Satou Sabally OVER 30.5 PRA ✅

Season record: 49-37 (+7.20 units)! https://t.co/rrfZEJbZ7w pic.twitter.com/qTooIGgsbJ
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) August 21, 2024

The Phoenix Mercury and Atlanta Dream kick off today’s action, with the Dream sitting as home underdogs after winning back-to-back games out of the Olympic break.

That matchup is followed up by one of the best meetings we’ll see all season – the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Minnesota Lynx.

The Lynx and Aces are both in the mix for a top seed in the WNBA playoffs, but oddsmakers have the Aces favored by 5.5 points at home.

With MVP candidates like Napheesa Collier and favorite A’ja Wilson squaring off, how should we bet on these matchups?

Here are my favorite WNBA bets as we look to keep this hot streak rolling!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

2024 season record: 49-37 (+7.20 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-135) vs. Atlanta Dream
Minnesota Lynx +5.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-135) vs. Atlanta Dream

I’ve been impressed with Atlanta’s play out of the Olympic break, knocking off two playoff teams in Seattle and Connecticut, but I think the streak ends here.

Both of those teams match up well with Atlnata’s struggling offense, as they’re defensive minded squads – and the Sun love to slow the game down. That helps Atlanta’s poor shooting stay afloat.

The Mercury are a much different animal. They enter this game as one of the five best shooting teams in the WNBA, and they rank No. 3 in offensive rating.

With Brittney Griner healthy, the Mercury have a tough Big 3 with her, Kahleah Copper and Diana Taurasi.

Atlanta lost the first meeting between these teams back in May, but Griner did not play in that contest. I don’t want to take too much away from that, since these teams have half of season worth of games since then, but there is one trend that I’m interested in.

This season, the Mercury aren’t great on the road, going just 6-9 straight up, but they have dominated as favorites, going 9-3 against the spread.

I’ll back them to earn a road victory on Wednesday.

Minnesota Lynx +5.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Aces

This game opened up at Las Vegas -4, but the odds are moving in Wilson and company’s favor ahead of Wednesday’s matchup on ESPN.

I think we’re in line for a terrific game against two of the top five teams in the WNBA this season, and I’m not sold on Las Vegas being this heavily favored – even at home.

The Lynx are one of the best teams in the league as an underdog this season, going 7-3 against the spread, and they’ve won three games in a row to build a 1.5-game lead over the Aces in the standings. With Napheesa Collier back, Minnesota is a much better team than the one that we saw struggle a bit ahead of the All-Star break.

Meanwhile the Aces aren’t exactly a great team to bet on this season, struggling against the spread at home and overall (10-16 ATS). The Lynx outrank the Aces in net rating and defensive rating (they’re No. 1 in the league) entering this matchup.

While Vegas’ offense is even better with Chelsea Gray healthy, I’m not sold on the Aces winning big in this game, especially after they lost to another one of the league’s best teams – the New York Liberty – at home right out of the break.

I’ll gladly take the points in a game that is truly a toss up on Wednesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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