Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 2

The New York Yankees have dropped back-to-back games against the Toronto Blue Jays, and they are in serious danger of losing the top spot in the AL East.

New York is just one game up on the Jays heading into Wednesday’s matchup, the third game of this four-game set.

The Blue Jays have been rolling, winning seven of their last 10 games, and they’ve benefitted from back-to-back losses by Tampa Bay to take over the No. 2 spot in the division standings.

Will Warren will be on the mound for New York in this matchup against Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios, who enters Wednesday with a 3.26 ERA in 2025.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for this AL East battle.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+128)
Blue Jays +1.5 (-156)

Moneyline

Yankees: -126
Blue Jays: +104

Total

9 (Over -109/Under -112)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Yankees: Will Warren (5-4, 4.37 ERA)
Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (4-3, 3.26 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 2
Time: 7:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): SNET, Amazon Prime Video
Yankees record: 48-37
Blue Jays record: 47-38

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Will Warren OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The Blue Jays average the fewest strikeouts per game in MLB this season, but I think this number is set too low for Warren, who has one of the best strikeout rates in MLB.

Warren has 103 punchouts in 80.1 innings of work, and he ranks in the 89th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 66th percentile in whiff percentage this season. Overall, the Yankees righty has five or more K’s in 13 of his 17 outings in the 2025 season.

While Toronto averages just 6.72 K’s per game, I don’t think it’s impossible for Warren to clear this prop. He is averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings for the second straight season at the MLB level.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

The Yankees are in trouble.

New York ranks just 18th in runs scored and 19th in OPS over the last month, a major drop-off from the beginning of the season when the Yankees had arguably the best offense in baseball.

On top of that, their bullpen ERA has been slipping, falling to 3.77 on the season. The 'pen has cost the Yankees twice in this series, and the offense taking a step back has made it even more critical that the bullpen step up.

Meanwhile, Berrios is the better pitcher in this matchup, and he has a 2.78 ERA since the start of May, leading the Jays to a 6-5 record during that stretch. Toronto is 10-7 when he’s on the mound in 2025.

After the way the first two games of this series played out, there’s no way I can justify the Yankees being favored with Warren on the bump against Berrios. Warren has been solid in 2025, but he still has a 4.37 ERA and five outings with four or more earned runs allowed.

New York’s struggles should continue in Toronto.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (+104 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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