Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 12

The New York Yankees have dropped four games in a row to fall into second place in the AL East, but they are favored in Tuesday’s matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore won Monday’s series opener, and it is expected to have ace Trevor Rogers (on the injured list with an illness) back in the rotation on Tuesday night.

Rogers has a 4.75 ERA this season, and the O’s are 3-3 in his six starts. However, he was in the Cy Young conversation after 18 terrific starts in the 2025 campaign, where he posted a 1.81 ERA.

The Yankees will counter with righty Will Warren, who was tagged for six runs in four innings in a loss to Texas his last time out. Still, Warren has a 3.46 ERA this season, and the Yankees are 6-2 when he takes the mound.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Tuesday night’s AL East showdown.

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+100)
Orioles +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Yankees: -168
Orioles: +139

Total

8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Yankees vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

New York: Will Warren (4-1, 3.46 ERA)
Baltimore: Trevor Rogers (2-3, 4.75 ERA)

Yankees vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, MASN
Yankees record: 26-16
Orioles record: 19-23

Yankees vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Will Warren OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)

This season, Warren has struck out 53 batters in 41.2 innings of work, including a nine-strikeout game in 6.1 innings against the O’s earlier this month. Warren was dominant in that outing, allowing just three hits in a Yankees win.

Warren ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage this season, even though he’s only in the 47th percentile in whiff percentage. On top of that, the right-hander has six or more K’s in six of his eight starts.

Baltimore has struggled to avoid strikeouts in 2026, ranking 27th in MLB in K’s per game, averaging over nine per night. Warren is a pretty solid bet at this number, as he even struck out seven batters in just four innings in last week's rough showing against Texas.

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

These teams combined for just five runs in Monday’s game, but they went for nine or more combined runs in all four games during a four-game set earlier this season.

So, I wouldn't be shocked to see a high-scoring game on Tuesday, especially with this pitching matchup.

Both of these starters rank just above the 60th percentile in expected ERA this season, and the Baltimore bullpen (4.29 ERA) has been a little shaky in 2026. The Yankees are No. 2 in the league in bullpen ERA, but Warren allowed six runs in his last start and now ranks in the eight percentile in average exit velocity against and the 22nd percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Rogers has only made six starts, but he’s allowed at least two runs in five of them, including three straight outings with three or more runs allowed.

Baltimore also happens to be on the best OVER teams in MLB, hitting it in 61.9 percent of games in the 2026 season.

I’ll bet on a bounce-back showing from these offenses in Game 2 of this series.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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