How Michigan’s Blowout Loss to USC Impacts Wolverines’ Playoff Chances

Saturday’s Wolverines loss in Los Angeles is a crucial blow to Michigan’s College Football Playoff hopes.

Sherrone Moore (right) and Michigan will take on USC for the second time as Big Ten rivals on Saturday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan's 2024 football season didn't result in a return trip to the College Football Playoff or a second consecutive national title, but it would be hard to argue that Sherrone Moore's inaugural season stepping into the head-coaching job vacated by Jim Harbaugh wasn't pretty successful. Despite fumbling the quarterback situation in the offseason, the Wolverines rode one of the nation's top defenses to wins over eventual national champion (and hated rival) Ohio State in the final week of the regular season and then Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Michigan entered 2025 with higher expectations. The defense lost a number of top playmakers, but remains one of the best in college football, and while true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood hasn't taken the sport by storm quite yet, he's a marked upgrade over the players the Wolverines had under center last season.

It is too early to determine whether Michigan is CFP-bound after six games. For the most part, Moore's team has held serve, dropping its biggest challenge in respectable fashion at Oklahoma, 24–13, while beating the rest of its early slate. A tight win at what looks to be a solid Nebraska team looks to be a good result, but there isn't much else to write home about yet. The most important chunk of the Wolverines' schedule began with Saturday's night game at USC—a 31–13 loss that narrows the program's playoff path significantly.

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The blowout loss may not necessarily eliminate them, but it gives the Wolverines little wiggle room through the rest of the season. Before we analyze what Saturday's game means for Michigan's postseason hopes, here's a full look at the Wolverines' 2025 schedule.

Michigan's 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 7 AP Top 25.

Date	Opponent	Score
Aug. 30	vs. New Mexico	W 34–17
Sept. 6	at No. 6 Oklahoma	L 24–13
Sept. 13	vs. Central Michigan	W 63–6
Sept. 20	at Nebraska	W 30–27
Oct. 4	vs. Wisconsin	W 24–10
Oct. 11	at USC	L 31–13
Oct. 18	vs. Washington	TBD
Oct. 25	at Michigan State	TBD
Nov. 1	vs. Purdue	TBD
Nov. 15	at Northwestern	TBD
Nov. 22	at Maryland	TBD
Nov. 29	vs. No. 1 Ohio State	TBD

Michigan had no answers for USC's offense

Michigan entered Saturday's game with one of the most vaunted defenses in the country, and it will likely end up being a real feather in the cap for Lincoln Riley's USC offense.

Jayden Maiava ended the night 25-for-32 for 265 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, with star receiver Makai Lemon catching nine passes for 91 yards and a score. More impressive was the Trojans rushing attack, which rolled up 224 yards and 6.2 yards per carry with two touchdowns. King Miller was dominant, gashing the Wolverines' front for 158 yards and a score on 18 carries.

Michigan was outgained 489 yards to just 316. Bryce Underwood was relatively efficient, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt en route to 207 yards and two scores, but the Wolverines could never get it going on the ground, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

With Michigan's loss...

The loss at the Coliseum makes things pretty hairy for Michigan moving forward, now 4–2 after Saturday's game. It is difficult to cite precedent, as we've gone through just one year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but in 2024, no team earned an at-large bid with three losses. That doesn't mean it can't happen. Last year Alabama finished the regular season ranked at No. 11 by the CFP committee with a 9–3 record, but was edged out by a pair of conference champions for the final two spots in the field: No. 12 Arizona State (11–2, Big 12 champion) and No. 16 Clemson (10–3, ACC champion). Had SMU, which finished at No. 10 after its loss to Clemson in the ACC championship, won its conference, Alabama likely would have gotten in.

That doesn't necessarily help this Michigan team, however, with the loss to USC. There aren't a ton of great win opportunities left on the Wolverines’ schedule. Washington and Nebraska could conceivably finish the year as ranked teams, but right now Ohio State is the only team in the Top 25 left on the schedule. With two losses already, a win over Ohio State to finish 10–2 would give them perhaps the best single data point in all of college football, but Michigan would probably enter that rivalry as a significant underdog yet again, and it stands to reason that at some point Ryan Day will figure out how to win The Game.

Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Michigan

Michigan entered Week 7 ranked No. 15 in both the AP and Coaches Top 25 polls. Neither has a direct impact on how the selection committee, which begins its rankings on Nov. 1, will treat the Wolverines, but the polls indicate that UM is hovering on the fringes of the playoff conversation.

SI's college football experts had Michigan around this same range, though Bryan Fischer was a bit higher on the Wolverines ahead of Week 7. Ahead of Saturday's loss, Fischer slotted UM in the field as the No. 11 seed, on a crash course with No. 6 Texas A&M. After the USC game, however, Michigan has been unsurprisingly bounced from SI's live CFP projection. Pat Forde had UM on the outside looking in as one of his 10 "teams also considered" before the loss. These are both set to change with Saturday's loss.

The Wolverines will look to bounce back next week with a noon ET home game against 5–1 Washington.

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