Indiana vs. Alabama: Three Bold Predictions for Rose Bowl Battle in 2025 CFP

The No. 1 Hoosiers will face the No. 9 Crimson Tide at the Rose Bowl for a spot in the CFP semifinals.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza will lead his team in the Rose Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Indiana and Alabama are set to face off in the 112th edition of the Rose Bowl, which is doubling as a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup this year. An upstart program faces arguably the greatest in the sport’s history in what should be a fascinating showdown.

The Hoosiers enter the game as the No. 1 team in the nation after an incredible 13-0 season. The Crimson Tide come in ranked No. 9 at 11-3 after a 34-24 opening-round win over No. 8 Oklahoma. The game will feature two outstanding quarterbacks with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson dueling it out.

The Hoosiers enter the game favored and on an absolute heater after besting Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. That said, the wildly talented Crimson Tide shouldn’t be counted out.

Here are three bold predictions for the game.

Indiana’s pressure will get to Ty Simpson

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has had a solid year. Entering the Rose Bowl, the junior has completed 64.1% of his passes for 3,500 yards, with 28 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt and has a quarterback rating of 146.5. His QBR of 76.6 ranks 19th in the nation. While I expect him to make some good throws, Simpson’s lack of mobility will hamper his team’s offense against Indiana.

Despite head coach Kalen DeBoer’s track record of building offenses, Alabama ranks 74th in yards per game this season (380.1). The running game has been particularly bad, averaging a meager 109.9 yards per game, which ranks 118th nationally. In that regard, it's certainly not a rushing attack that college football fans came to expect regularly under Nick Saban. With no consistent running game to speak of, Indiana’s pass rushers should be able to pin their ears back and target Simpson.

The Hoosiers have the fourth-ranked defense in the nation and are allowing 257.2 yards per game. A big part of that is the team’s front seven and pass rush. Indiana’s 39 sacks are tied for sixth in the country. It’s a balanced group led by linebackers Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones, who have eight and seven sacks, respectively. Along the defensive line, tackle Tyrique Tucker and Mario Landino will lead the way with Stephen Daley out for the rest of the season.

Indiana has pressured opponents all season, and that should continue during the Rose Bowl.

Alabama’s defense will stop the run

Indiana’s offense ranks eighth in the country, averaging 472.8 yards per game, and is 10th with 221.2 rushing yards per game. On the other side, Alabama is 13th in total defense (288.9) and 28th in rushing defense (120.6). This battle could be a stalemate.

The Crimson Tide has a front loaded with talent. Defensive linemen LT Overton and Tim Keenan III, and linebackers Justin Jefferson and Yhonzae Pierre, will make life difficult for Indiana running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers will be able to get yards on the ground but will be held far below their season average, as they were against Ohio State.

Fernando Mendoza will carry Indiana to victory

With the running game potentially bottled up, Indiana will turn to its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback to make the difference. He’ll do just that.

Mendoza has had an outstanding season, and I see no reason for him to slow down at the Rose Bowl. Entering “The Granddaddy of Them All,” Mendoza has completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, with 33 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a sparkling passer rating of 181.4. His QBR of 88.7 ranks third in the nation, and he has added 240 yards and six touchdowns on 69 rushes.

More than the raw statistics, the chemistry he has with his receivers elevates him above the rest of the quarterbacks in college football. Omar Cooper Jr. (58 catches, 804 yards, 11 touchdowns), Elijah Sarratt (51 catches, 687 yards, 12 touchdowns), and the emerging Charlie Becker (26 catches, 515 yards, two touchdowns) are all exceptionally difficult to cover.

Alabama ranks 10th in pass defense this season, allowing 168.4 yards per game. The Crimson Tide’s secondary is packed with underclassmen. Cornerbacks Zabien Brown and Morgan Red are sophomores, while Dijon Lee is a freshman. Indiana’s veteran receivers and quarterback should exploit that youth.

Indiana is the more well-rounded team and should come out ahead on the strength of its best player.

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