Big Ten Offseason Report: Power Rankings and Burning Questions for 2020-21

A few late NBA draft decisions have left the Big Ten in another strong spot as it looks to build off a highly successful 2019-20 season.

Author:
Molly Geary
Publish date:
Aug 7, 2020

The Big Ten enjoyed a dominant men's basketball season in 2019–20, widely regarded as the nation’s strongest conference, top-to-bottom. Before March Madness was canceled in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the conference looked poised to send as many as nine or 10 teams to the NCAA tournament—including Rutgers’s first appearance since 1991. Alas, the only official team hardware handed out was the three-way regular-season crown, split by Wisconsin, Michigan State and Maryland, but the league is in good shape heading into 2020–21.

Spearheaded by the prominent recent returns of Luka Garza and Ayo Dosunmu, the Big Ten could once again be a juggernaut, with no shortage of challengers for the title. There’s no more Cassius Winston, Anthony Cowan or Lamar Stevens, but the conference’s quality depth once again extends far—at least on paper. With NBA draft-related roster decisions settled, how do we see the Big Ten shaking out at this point?

Big Ten Summer Power Rankings

1. Illinois: The return of Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn propel the Illini all the way to (ever-so-slight) favorite status, though it’s shaping up to be another tight battle in the Big Ten. After the transfer of Alan Griffin—which could potentially loom large—the Illini will need shooting from incoming four-star shooting guard Adam Miller. Dosunmu and Cockburn could be one of the nation’s best inside-out duos, but offensive improvement from the likes of Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Trent Frazier and Da'Monte Williams might be equally critical to their title hopes.

2. Iowa: Luka Garza’s return cemented big expectations for the Hawkeyes, as he re-joins an experienced core that includes a now-healthy Jordan Bohannon, Joe Wieskamp, CJ Fredrick and Joe Toussaint. Iowa should be right in the running for what could be its first Big Ten regular-season title since 1979, but improving on defense and avoiding its usual February swoon are imperative.

3. Wisconsin: The Badgers closed 2019-20 by winning eight straight to co-win the Big Ten, and lost only Brevin Pritzl from that rotation. D'Mitrik Trice, Brad Davison, Micah Potter, Nate Reuvers and Aleem Ford are all seniors now, making this one of the most experienced groups in the Big Ten. Four-star forward Ben Carlson is the highest-rated of a five-man freshman class.

4. Michigan State: Yes, Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman are massive losses, but underestimate the Spartans at your own risk. A now-eligible Joey Hauser is a strong addition to the likes of Aaron Henry, Rocket Watts and Gabe Brown, and MSU might finally see the return of Joshua Langford to the court. Ultimately, this team’s ceiling will be determined by the leaps players like Henry, Watts, Brown and Marcus Bingham make—which, under Tom Izzo, is usually a safe bet to be at least encouraging.

5. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights’ most successful season in years was cut heartbreakingly short by the pandemic, but they’re well-positioned to come back strong. With Geo Baker, Ron Harper, Myles Johnson, Jacob Young and more back—plus the addition of top-50 center Cliff Omoruyi—Rutgers should be stout again defensively under Steve Pikiell but will need to improve on offense if it’s to seriously challenge for the conference title.

6. Michigan: A roller-coaster offseason saw a good amount of roster turnover in Ann Arbor—and the loss of incoming five-star Isaiah Todd, who opted for the G League—but there’s a quite promising core here. The return of Isaiah Livers was huge, as the Wolverines were at their best with him healthy last season. Expect a sizable leap from Franz Wagner; meanwhile the additions of Columbia point guard Mike Smith, freshman center Hunter Dickinson and Wake Forest wing Chaundee Brown—if Brown gets a waiver—all have difference-making potential.

7. Indiana: The return of Trayce Jackson-Davis and the commitment and reclassification of five-star guard Khristian Lander (who headlines a top-20 recruiting class) have optimism high in Bloomington. With Lander, Rob Phinisee and Al Durham running the backcourt, the Hoosiers will have plenty of available playmaking, and Race Thompson is a quietly intriguing presence in the frontcourt after showing flashes down the stretch last season.

8. Ohio State: Kaleb Wesson (as well as his brother Andre) is gone, but a quartet of transfers should keep things humming in Columbus. Harvard transfer Seth Towns is a former Ivy League Player of the Year who was highly-sought after, though there is some uncertainty after a major layoff due to injuries (his last collegiate game came in March 2018). Former Cal forward Justice Sueing will join Towns in the frontcourt after sitting out last season and, along with the returns of Kyle Young and E.J. Liddell, should help make up for Kaleb Wesson's departure. In the backcourt, Bucknell transfer Jimmy Sotos and Utah State transfer Abel Porter will provide playmaking alongside C.J. Walker, with Duane Washington Jr. back on the wing after a solid sophomore season.

9. Purdue: The abrupt transfer of Matt Haarms wasn’t the end of the world for the Boilermakers, who have Trevion Williams ready to anchor this team at center. Nojel Eastern’s defense will be missed after he also opted to move on, but the Boilermakers have an intriguing core that could play out a number of different ways next season. Purdue didn’t have a go-to guy on the floor when Williams was on the bench last season, and could benefit greatly from a jump by junior guard Eric Hunter Jr. Sasha Stefanovic is back to provide sharp-shooting, and there will be some pressure on a freshman class led by promising four-star guards Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton to contribute early in West Lafayette.

10. Maryland: After striking out on the majority of their grad transfer targets to replace Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith, the Terps will rely big time on the returning core of Darryl Morsell, Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala and Donte Scott. Depth in the frontcourt is a concern, and Ayala and incoming freshman Aquan Smart will need to prove they can handle point guard duties over the course of a long season. Still, Maryland will be led by veterans who know how to win, and could overachieve if player development breaks right.

11. Minnesota: The pending NCAA waiver decisions of Both Gach (Utah) and Liam Robbins (underrated transfer from Drake) will play a big role in expectations for the Gophers, with Gach seeming the more likely of the two to be granted immediate eligibility. Daniel Oturu is a major loss in the frontcourt, but guards Marcus Carr and Gabe Kalscheur are proven pieces back in Minneapolis. The question here is how strong the supporting cast will be, particularly if Gach and/or Robbins has to sit the season out.

12. Penn State: This ranking feels a bit unfair to the Nittany Lions, but such is life in a conference as good as the Big Ten. The graduation of Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins leaves a concerning size void down low, and the returning core will need to prove it has a lead guy or two among it for this team to make noise. Big Ten All-Defensive Team selection Jamari Wheeler is back in what should be another athletic and defensively stingy PSU backcourt, but keep an eye on junior guard Myreon Jones, who shot 40.3% from three last season and has definite breakout potential.

13. Northwestern: You could argue the previous eight teams in this ranking are close enough in terms of potential outcomes, but the Big Ten's bottom tier will likely once again start here. A largely inexperienced Wildcats roster had a brutal 2019–20 season, but it was always going to be a rebuilding year in Evanston. Young talent like Boo Buie, Miller Kopp and Ryan Young are pieces to build around, and Buie in particular could be the key to Northwestern surprising some if the point guard can build on what was a solid if inconsistent freshman season. This group is likely another year away from potentially turning things around for the program, but an improvement on its 3–17 mark in conference play is well within reach.

14. Nebraska: Fred Hoiberg’s first season in Lincoln was, as expected, one to forget, with the Huskers failing to win again after a Jan. 7 victory over Iowa. Nebraska is no longer bringing in Wisconsin transfer Kobe King, but adds several transfers for the second year in a row, including former WVU guard (and JUCO standout) Teddy Allen and now-eligible Pitt transfer Shamiel Stevenson. Fellow Pitt transfer Trey McGowens doesn’t seem likely to get a waiver, but factors into Hoiberg’s big-picture plans for rebuilding the program. The Cornhuskers stand to have more talent than last season, but still seem likely pegged for the Big Ten basement.

MORE BASKETBALL REPORTS: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Pac-12 | SEC

Big Ten players Ayo Dosunmu, Luka Garza and Rocket Watts — Jeffrey Becker, Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports, Nick King/Lansing State Journal-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Burning Questions

Can Iowa’s defense improve enough to be a national title contender?

Maybe the surest thing about the Big Ten heading into 2020–21 is that Iowa’s offense is going to be good—real good. With Garza back to lead a group that finished with KenPom’s fifth-most efficient offense last season—a group that adds a healthy Jordan Bohannon, a talented and experienced offensive player who played just six (limited) games in 2019–20—there’s no question the Hawkeyes are going to score, and likely challenge for the nation’s top offense. But what about the defense?

For the last four years under Fran McCaffery, Iowa hasn’t been known for its defensive prowess—in fact, its No. 97 finish in KenPom’s defensive rankings last season was its first top-100 finish in that metric since 2015–16. But that was only good enough for the 12th-best defense in Big Ten play, holding back the Hawkeyes from being truly elite. If Iowa is going to contend for a national title next spring, it has to figure out how to defend better—particularly inside the arc, where opponents shot 52% last season. No team since 2002 that has entered the NCAA tournament outside the KenPom top 40 on defense has gone on to win the national championship, and the Hawkeyes have a way to go from last season to get inside that window.

How will Illinois handle having a target on its back?

It's been a while since Illini basketball has been truly elite. And there's a good chance Illinois isn't the official preseason favorite in the Big Ten—that honor could very well go to Iowa. But barring an early debacle tempering expectations, this team will be hunted next season, and will more often than not come into games carrying a pretty appealing AP poll number next to its name. Brad Underwood's team got a taste of having a target on its back last season, when it won seven straight games in January to surge into first place in the Big Ten, but responded by dropping four in a row that ultimately left it one game short of the conference's three-way crown.

When the Illini hit their peak last season, they were essentially playing with house money—a revitalized program finally back in the spotlight. This year, there will be no house money. With Dosunmu back for a surprise third season, there's no doubting what Illinois's goals are: "I need that national championship," the guard said in his return video. This group will have major expectations from the start, and it will have to show it can adjust to that—from Dosunmu down to the incoming freshmen.

Is Indiana ready to take the next step?

Hoosiers fans are still awaiting their team’s return to national prominence—its NCAA tournament drought extends back to 2016 after the 2020 tournament was canceled—but there’s plenty of reasons to look forward to 2020–21. The spring reclassification of five-star guard Khristian Lander was big, and gives Rob Phinisee a skilled co-ballhandler in the backcourt who can provide scoring. The returns of Trayce Jackson-Davis, Race Thompson and Joey Brunk help absorb the transfer of Justin Smith down low, with Jackson-Davis carrying starring potential as a go-to guy in the post.

But for Indiana to take the next step, it must improve on offense, where it ranked third-to-last in KenPom efficiency during conference play last season. In fact, for a number of reasons, the Hoosiers have yet to have a top-50 national offense (in terms of efficiency, per KenPom) under Archie Miller, their highest ranking under him coming last season at No. 65. Indiana didn’t often attempt many threes in '19–20, but struggled inside the arc and at the free throw line, especially compared to its Big Ten peers. The pieces haven’t always fit together in Miller’s first three seasons in Bloomington, but he just might have the balance in 2020–21 to finally make bigger waves.

Can anyone challenge Garza for Conference Player of the Year?

Luke Garza is going to rightfully be the preseason National Player of the Year favorite, but repeating a superstar season can be harder than it looks. Just look at one year ago, when Cassius Winston was a near-consensus preseason NPOY favorite but didn’t even win the Big Ten's award by season’s end (and, it should be noted, dealt with the sudden death of his brother at the season’s onset). Instead the conference honor went to Garza, whose surprise 23.9-ppg breakout campaign propelled him into national prominence and a First-Team All-America selection. Odds are Garza goes back-to-back in the Big Ten, but who—if anyone—could be his main challengers?

Illinois’s Ayo Dosunmu could have something to say about the race, particularly if he improves his three-point shot and leads the Illini back to prominence. Purdue’s Trevion Williams is an interesting candidate if he keeps up his production with more playing time, and Indiana’s Jackson-Davis, Michigan’s Isaiah Livers, Wisconsin’s Nate Reuvers, Minnesota’s Marcus Carr and Rutgers’s Geo Baker are all among those who could conceivably make a run at it. A more outside-the-box candidate might be Michigan State’s Rocket Watts, who would need to make a significant jump from his freshman season but seems in line to become the new-look Spartans’ top offensive option.

How much can Wisconsin improve?

The Badgers bring back almost everyone from their Big Ten-winning group (sans Brevin Pritzl and the midseason transfer of Kobe King), but if there’s one thing working against them it’s the fact that juniors-turned-seniors (with exceptions, of course) don’t tend to individually improve as much as sophomores-to-juniors or freshmen-to-sophomores. Having a high minutes continuity is a valuable weapon but isn’t a guarantee a team will necessarily take a significant leap forward as a whole.

The good news for Wisconsin is that it doesn’t need to make a big leap to compete for another Big Ten title, and the better news is that it’s adding a five-man recruiting class that should give it the kind of depth it often lacked in 2019–20. Of the key returnees, senior Micah Potter could be in the best position to break out. After having to sit out the first 10 games last season, the 6’ 10” Potter was impressive in just 17.5 minutes per game, averaging 10.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and shooting 45.1% from three on 51 attempts.

Is last season’s supporting cast ready to carry Maryland?

Mark Turgeon was unable to reel in a high-profile replacement for either Anthony Cowan or Jalen Smith, and those exits are the primary reason the Terps have tumbled so much in expectations as compared to how they finished 2019–20. Despite the return of three starters and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Aaron Wiggins, the big questions here are around depth and playmaking. The 7’ 2” Chol Marial is a wildcard down low, with Maryland hoping he’ll be a reliable contributor at center to stem some of the frontcourt questions. If Boston College transfer Jairus Hamilton gets a waiver, he’ll be another option at the four alongside promising sophomore Donta Scott, with Alabama grad transfer Galin Smith also serving as a big man option.

In the backcourt, the Terps have talent and experience but will need to see a level of offensive consistency from Wiggins, Darryl Morsell and Eric Ayala that often eluded the trio in 2019–20. Wiggins is the most likely option to take over Cowan/Smith’s departed “go-to” role, but will need to improve his efficiency and get his three-point shot closer to where it was as a freshman. This roster has some quality pieces but will need to see multiple players step up as leading offensive options to compete for the top-half of the Big Ten.

Can Rutgers fix its shooting woes?

The Scarlet Knights are, in some ways, the opposite of Iowa; the Hawkeyes can shoot and score with anyone but must learn how to get more stops. Meanwhile, Rutgers finished sixth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings last season—including the second-best mark in Big Ten play—but lacked consistency on offense and particularly struggled from the outside, ranking 285th nationally from three (30.8%). To the Scarlet Knights’ credit, they didn’t make three-point shooting a large part of their offense, with the lowest rate in the Big Ten, but they also ranked dead last in conference play in assist rate and were just average at shooting inside the arc.

Rutgers failed to score 1.0 points per possession in 14 of its 31 games, a number that must go down if it’s to challenge for a top-three finish in the league. One of the Knights’ two most efficient players last season, Akwasi Yeboah, has graduated, so the improvement must come internally—particularly from Geo Baker (29.4% from three on 119 attempts) and someone like Jacob Young or Montez Mathis.