Michigan's Ugly Decline Takes a Toll on SI's Top 10
As the Big Ten season continues to sort its weird self out, here is the one lesson that must be remembered when ranking teams from that conference: Michigan is terrible, and beating it carries limited value.
For eternity, a victory over the winningest program in the history of college football was a big freaking deal. If you defeated the Wolverines, you did something significant. Probably something worthy of being ranked.
That ain’t the case in 2020. Michigan is 1-3, and a bad 1-3 at that. After beating a reallllly awful Minnesota team in the season opener, the Wolverines have not led for a second in any of their three subsequent losses to Michigan State (blech), Indiana and Wisconsin. And their plummet into irrelevance means that wins over a brand name will be overvalued.
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They won’t be here at the SI Top Ten. Indiana is undefeated, and was very happy to beat Michigan, 38-21, on Nov. 7. Wisconsin is undefeated, and was very happy to beat Michigan Saturday night, 49-11. But guess which Big Ten team has better wins than either the Hoosiers or the Badgers?
Say hello to Northwestern, the new arrival in the Top Ten. Based on what teams have done to date, the 4-0 Wildcats should be ranked ahead of both the 4-0 Hoosiers and the 2-0 Badgers. (Maybe even Ohio State, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.)
Combined opponent record for Northwestern: 7-5. Combined opponent record for Wisconsin: 2-6. Combined opponent record for Indiana: 3-13.
At this point in time, beating Maryland, Iowa and Purdue (as Northwestern has) all count more than beating Michigan. So the Wildcats are in the Top Ten at No. 9, the Hoosiers are No. 10, and the Badgers remain on deck as we await more data.
Big data will arrive this week, with the respective clashes of unbeatens in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is at Northwestern and Indiana is at Ohio State. After that, we will know who the true favorites are in each division.
We already know who it isn’t: that’s Michigan. It is goes against decades of ingrained thinking, but if your team beats the Wolverines, don’t get that excited. It just doesn’t mean that much to beat a lousy team.
1. Alabama
Last game: Beat Mississippi State, 41-0, on Halloween
Next game: Kentucky Nov. 21
The Crimson Tide lost the chance to exact merciless revenge on LSU Saturday when the struggling Tigers couldn’t play due to COVID-19 issues. They will now be coming off two open dates to play the Wildcats — don’t look for that to matter. ‘Bama has scored at least 38 points in every game this season and leads the nation among teams that have played more than two games at 47.2 points per game.
2. Notre Dame
Last game: Beat Boston College, 45-31
Next game: at North Carolina on Friday, Nov. 27
The Fighting Irish showed no significant Clemson hangover in Chestnut Hill, rolling past the Eagles behind a second consecutive outstanding game from quarterback Ian Book. He threw for 283 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and ran for a game-high 85 yards and another score. Book connected for all three scoring passes to Northwestern transfer Ben Skowronek, who is becoming more important to the Notre Dame offense after an early-season hamstring injury. The Irish look like an increasingly complete team.
3. Ohio State
Last game: Beat Rutgers, 49-27, Nov. 7
Next game: Indiana Nov. 21
The Buckeyes’ game against Maryland was one fo the many COVID casualties, which means they still have not played a team with a winning record. That will change Saturday against the undefeated Hoosiers, in the most unlikely of Big Ten East showdown games. Quarterback Justin Fields rolls into that game with 11 touchdown passes and 11 incompletions on the season.
4. Clemson
Last game: Lost to Notre Dame, 47-40, Nov. 7
Next game: at Florida State Nov. 21
The Seminoles might want to call in sick for that game. They’re not only frightfully bad, they’re playing an angry and motivated Clemson team that gets Trevor Lawrence back off the COVID inactive list, and probably other key Tigers who missed the Notre Dame game (both defensively and at wide receiver). That said, the Fighting Irish did expose some weakness in Clemson, most notably the offensive line and in linebacker depth.
5. Cincinnati
Last game: Beat East Carolina, 55-17, Nov. 13
Next game: at UCF Nov. 21
The Bearcats have won every AAC game by at least three touchdowns, and they sure didn’t take their paw off the gas against the Pirates Friday night. A fake punt and a late score when the game already was out of hand led to a long and clearly unpleasant postgame conversation between Cincy coach Luke Fickell and ECU’s Mike Houston. But the Bearcats need any and all style points as they try to force the nation to take them seriously as a playoff contender. The game at UCF Saturday is the biggest of the season and will be a huge showcase.
6. Texas A&M
Last game: Beat South Carolina, 48-3, Nov. 7
Next game: Mississippi Nov. 21. Maybe.
The Aggies’ game against Mississippi State was called off, and the next one against the Rebels is no sure thing, either. It’s a bit tenuous keeping Texas A&M ranked ahead of red-hot Florida — but the Aggies did win the head-to-head matchup, and since they both have the same number of losses that has to be taken into consideration.
7. Florida
Last game: Beat Arkansas, 63-35
Next game: at Vanderbilt Nov. 21
Kyle Trask’s thermonuclear season continues. The Gators quarterback strafed the Razorbacks for 356 yards and six touchdowns — and that’s with star tight end Kyle Pitts not playing. He’s having a year that stacks up with the best work of former Florida Heisman Trophy winners Steve Spurrier, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Tebow. And there’s no telling what he might do to the winless Commodores in the next game.
8. BYU
Last game: Beat Boise State, 51-17, Nov. 6
Next game: North Alabama Nov. 21
The Cougars have been brilliant this season, but are in jeopardy of falling off radar. They only have two games remaining, and North Alabama is a body-bag game — an FCS opponent that is playing just four games this season. After that, BYU is off until playing San Diego State Dec. 12. This is a good team that probably won’t get a chance to show whether it can match up against the best of the Power 5. Zach Wilson’s strong Heisman Trophy candidacy isn’t a bad consolation, though.
9. Northwestern
Last game: Beat Purdue, 27-20
Next game: Wisconsin Nov. 21
As discussed above, the Wildcats have the best wins of any unbeaten team thus far in the Big Ten. Aside from the opening rout of Maryland, Northwestern doesn’t win big — it just wins. By a point over Iowa, eight over Nebraska and seven over Purdue. This is a very good defensive team, especially against the pass and in the Red Zone. And Peyton Ramsey has improved the quarterback play enough to give Pat Fitzgerald’s team some completeness. The Big Ten West could very well be decided Saturday in Evanston.
10. Indiana
Last game: Beat Michigan State, 24-0
Next game: at Ohio State Nov. 21
The Hoosiers once again rode the mistakes of their opponent to victory, improving their season turnover margin to plus-eight. The Michael Penix-to-Tyler Fryfogle combination tore up the Spartans, to the tune of 11 connections for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Now Indiana advances to the biggest game it has played since 1967 — the last time the Hoosiers went to the Rose Bowl. Dare to dream, crimson and cream?
Also considered: Wisconsin, Oregon, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Miami, Colorado, Nevada.
