Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At BYU Cougars

Cincinnati is 0-5 in Quad 1 games this season.
Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) dunks the ball in the second half of a NCAA men’s basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders, Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. Red Raiders won 81-71.
Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) dunks the ball in the second half of a NCAA men’s basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders, Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. Red Raiders won 81-71. / Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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CINCINNATI — The Bearcats could use a repeat of last year's road trip to BYU. Cincinnati (12-6, 2-5) travels to take on the Cougars at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 this Saturday night.

Cincinnati won this road matchup 71-60 last year and needs to start beating a few Quad 1 opponents for its dwindling NCAA Tournament hopes. The Bearcats enter the game ranked 41st in the NET and 44th on KenPom, while BYU is 43rd in the NET and 38th on KenPom. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 36% chance of getting its first Quad 1 win of the season.

It will be extremely difficult to knock off the Cougars in the mountains. BYU is 9-1 at home and 2-1 in Quad 2 games, as Cincinnati fits that distinction being a team ranked outside the NET's top 30. The Bearcats are 2-1 against BYU since the 1949-50 season, winning by an average of 11 points. 

Offensive Storyline: Jumpers Need To Fall

BYU (66th nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency) profiles as a rough matchup for UC's offense, given how poorly they've shot in conference play. Bottomline, Cincinnati is a bad shooting team, posting 32.4% from deep this season (259th nationally), and 65.2% from the free throw line (339th) nationally. Those are the two best gauges for a team's shooting touch and the former is even worse in conference play (26.4% on 21.1 three-point attempts per game).

The offense has ticked up a bit over the past two games, thanks to better free throw shooting and good rim attacks. Alas, the Cougars stifle teams around the rim (47.6% shooting allowed from two, 89th) as they sell out to stop those plays with a smaller lineup. 

They are more than willing to let teams shoot and Cincinnati has to finally prove it can before things get too dark in conference play. BYU gives up 25.3 triple tries per game (310th) and allows a 34.9% hit rate (276th). Cincinnati has to punish that mantra on the road, or they won't keep pace with BYU's top-30 offense.

"Needless to say, I'm disappointed," UC head coach Wes Miller said about Tuesday's loss. "It was a big opportunity here at home against a good team, and we didn't do our part. They're a very, very good offensive team. I believe we have the ability to be a great defensive team. We didn't defend tonight. Our offense is continuing to find its rhythm and improve. There were some good moments tonight. 

"Obviously, I don't like how we executed in the last two and a half minutes of the game, three minutes of the game. I was very frustrated with that. The defense didn't hold fort tonight. Generally defensively when you're geared up, your deflection numbers look right the offensive rebounding is consistent with defensive effort because it's just movement to the ball and effort to the ball loose balls. We didn't win those battles tonight and that was very frustrating."

Those loose balls and rebounds are huge against a team with the sixth-best rebounding rate in the country (56.6%). One improving trait Cincinnati must tap into is its increased free throw rate. They've hit 75% on 18.7 attempts per game over the last three contests and need those to keep consistently popping up to keep pace here.

Good luck. 

BYU fouls at just a 22.6% rate (81st nationally) and only sends teams to the line 17.6 times per game (98th nationally).

Defensive Storyline: Smash The Glass

Cincinnati has to find a way to win the shooting volume battle in conference play and getting outrebounded again won't help things. They've been beaten on the glass by at least three boards in each of the past five games. Let that happen again and waves of Cougars will make them pay. 

BYU holds a plus-9.1 rebound differential this season thanks largely to a pair of maulers from Mali in Keba Keita (6.6 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Fousseyni Traore (9.7 points, 6.3 rebounds). BYU's had a bunch of lineup combinations this year and rolls out a roster with nine different players averaging at least two rebounds.

It's at the heart of head coach Kevin Young's teachings and helps to fuel one of the better shooting teams in the country. BYU is hitting 58.6% of its two point shots (14th) and 35.9% from deep (82nd). Guard Richie Saunders (14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 43% from deep) has taken the reigns as BYU's best offensive option. He's parlayed it into extreme efficiency, with the fourth-best effective field goal rate in the Big 12 (62.7%).

Four different Cougars are shooting at least 36% from deep on 3.5-plus tries per game. They also have a standout freshman projected to go in the NBA draft lottery range this summer. 6-9 forward Egor Denim (10.7 points, 4.2 rebounds) has hit just three triples in the past five games (27.3% on threes this season), but he has plenty of skill to break out in this game.

It's a similar wide-ranging shooting force to Texas Tech, which just dropped 12 threes on Cincinnati (their first time allowing double-digit threes this season). UC has to be a little tighter with its closeouts, and play like their season is on the line when those shots clank around the hoop into a rebound.

Show that you want it more than another NCAA Tournament, just on the outside looking in. Whoever wins this game will be much better positioned to go dancing than the loser.

Prediction: 76-69 Cougars

Season Prediction Record: 14-4

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Russ Heltman
RUSS HELTMAN

Russ Heltman is a contributor for AllBearcats and AllBengals. He is the morning host and producer for 89.3 WMKV in Cincinnati, OH. Russ can be found on Twitter: @RussHeltman11 or you can reach him by email at Heltmandm@yahoo.com.