Preview: UC's Three-Point Defense Faces Sharpshooting SMU Mustangs

The Bearcats have won nine consecutive games against SMU.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Jan 5, 2022 3:10 PM EST

CINCINNATI — Thursday brings a late-night affair to the hardwood at Fifth Third Arena. Cincinnati (10-4, 0-1) takes on SMU (11-3, 2-0) at 9:30 p.m. ET in a crucial test early in the AAC season.

Cincinnati comes into the contest licking their wounds from a 68-60 loss against Tulane, but they've dominated SMU historically. The latter is 16-5 overall against SMU and has won nine-straight meetings. That was then and things have shifted in 2021-22, ESPN's matchup predictor expects SMU to win 53.2% of the time.

Cincinnati comes into this game at No. 91 in KenPom, while SMU ranks 62nd after a strong start in the conference.

The Mustangs are an offensive juggernaut that should finish in the top three of most major AAC scoring statistics besides offensive rebounding. SMU averages 78.3 points (54th nationally) and holds a 110.6 adjusted offense rating on KenPom (35th).

Senior guard Kendric Davis (team-high 21.5 points, team-high 5.4 assists, 4.9 rebounds) is a big reason for that offensive efficiency. The Houston native is a walking bucket that hunts the hoop soundly on drives and can hit jump shots from anywhere on the floor.

The sixth-leading scorer in the nation heads up a three-point shooting brigade that features five players canning at least 38% of their shots from deep.

The 5-foot-11 guard is relentless in his search for high-percentage baskets. Davis ranks fourth among all AAC players with a 58.2% effective FG rate, which factors in the added value of a three-point shot.

He's nearly even on the number of twos (6.6) and threes (6.5) he takes per game. All while making sure he finds contact on about half of those shots inside the arc. Davis (88.9 FT%, 33rd nationally) is a big reason why SMU is shooting so well from the charity stripe this season (74.4%).

The Mustangs go as Davis goes: SMU has a +11.7 scoring differential over its past three games and Davis has either made or assisted on 47% of all SMU field goals in that stretch.

Stop Davis and UC has a great chance to end SMU's eight-game win streak. Only one player in the country has more KenPom Game MVPs than Davis's nine (Iowa's Keegan Murray has 10). On top of that, Davis is the only Mustang averaging at least two assists.

Slowing down a top-10 scorer is an obvious path to victory but Davis isn't the only reason for SMU's nice conference start. The Mustangs sport a balanced crew behind Davis, with five players averaging between 6.2 and 10.4 points.

At the top end of that spectrum is Marcus Weathers (10.4 points, team-high 7 rebounds, 1.6 assists) and Emmanuel Bandoumel (10.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists), who follow Davis as top scorers.

Weathers is a strong rebounder that knows how to put his stout 6-foot-5, 215-pound frame in the right positions to get his top scorer the ball and work into the offense. He and Bandoumel are both strong three-point shooters. The latter more so, as Bandoumel's canning 38.2% of his triples on 5.4 attempts per game.

Cincinnati struggled with a one-player-focused offense against Tulane and they can't let the same script play out. The Green Wave shot 47% (10-for-21) on Saturday—a mark SMU is more than capable of reaching.

I've talked about the shooting depth sprinkled throughout the roster, and it's made SMU the 48th-best team in the country this season from downtown. The Mustangs shoot 37.1% as a team and makes 9.1 triples per game (60th). If the numbers are any indication, head coach Tim Jankovich is an analytics lover.

SMU generates 19.3% of its points at the line (93rd), 45.6% from inside the arc (301st), and 35% from deep (100th). Long twos are a death wish in modern basketball, and SMU is actively trying to win by hitting threes and getting to the line. At 11-3 and winners of eight-straight, the computers may be onto something.

All in all, something has to give in this matchup. Cincinnati's season defensively mirrors the SMU offense. UC allows 22.6% of points from the charity stripe (19th-best), 51.6% from inside the arc (204th), and 25.8% from downtown (38th). There's a reason these two teams are so tight to one another heading into Fifth Third Arena, and rebounding is no different.

Both squads average 39.2 rebounds (t-64th); SMU is doing it with hustle, while UC pulls it off with height. That could be the key for Cincinnati, which ranks 11th in effective height (plus-1.9) to SMU's 269th ranking nationally. UC outrebounded the Green Wave on Saturday 40-32, but Tulane shot the ball well enough for it to not matter.

If Cincinnati can get back to the elite three-point defense they've leaned on most of the season and keep Davis off the free-throw line they'll have a great chance to avoid back-to-back losses. The game tips off Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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