NoleGameday staff score predictions for No. 18 FSU football vs. No. 3 Miami Hurricanes

The No. 18 Florida State Seminoles are back home in Tallahassee to face off against the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes in a nationally televised rivalry game on Saturday.

The annual matchup is always circled on the calendar when Florida State and Miami clash between the lines. However, this one is arguably even more important than normal. It's the first time the Seminoles and Hurricanes have entered this game ranked since 2013.

Plus, this is Miami's first conference game of the season, while Florida State is 0-1 in ACC play, and probably can't afford to drop to 0-2 to have any hope of booking a trip to Charlotte later in the year.

Despite a loss last week, Florida State continues to rank No. 1 in the country in points per game (53.0 points) and total yards of offense (600 yards) per game. On the flip side, Miami brings in the top total defense (244.6 yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (11.5 points allowed per game) in the ACC, sitting in the top-15 in the country in both metrics.

The Seminoles struggled mightily on the ground against Virginia, giving up 211 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. FSU will have to rebound quickly as the Hurricanes have a veteran offensive line and two tough running backs (Mark Fletcher, CharMar Brown).

Our staff at NoleGameday provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Hurricanes.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles offensive lineman Gunnar Hansen (55) celebrates a touchdown during the first half against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State and Miami. This is a game that has delivered so much to college football over the years and the upcoming chapter in the annual rivalry has a chance to be a memorable one.

It all depends on whether the Seminoles can put the pieces back together after losing last weekend. Personally, I'm in the boat that basically everything went wrong against Virginia, and Florida State was still in it until the final snap. Last year, this team would've mailed it in down 14-0 in the first half.

FSU didn't quit, but the defense got run over in the process. That's the matchup I'm watching going into this game, as Miami loves to pound it on the ground. The Hurricanes have an offensive line that is both experienced and massive. Plus, running back Mark Fletcher has forced 18 missed tackles in four games while fellow running back CharMar Brown averages 2.9 yards per attempt after contact.

If the Seminoles can't match the physicality in the running game, they probably won't have much of a chance on Saturday night. A lot of that depends on the defensive line, but the linebackers need to have a good showing.

Defensively, Miami is much better than last year. The Hurricanes have only allowed three points in the first quarter and have surrendered just five touchdowns this season. On the ground, they hold opponents to 76.3 rushing yards per game.

To add to that, Miami has only given up nine rushes of ten or more yards, and none longer than 30 yards.

Regardless, the Seminoles play much better at home. Considering the victory over Alabama in Doak Campbell Stadium, I'm willing to call last Friday a fluke if Florida State takes down Miami.

Give me FSU by a slight margin as Mike Norvell defeats the Hurricanes for the third time in four years.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Seminoles 31, Hurricanes 28

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Darrell Jackson Jr. — Nov 2, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr (6) pursues North Carolina Tarheels running back Davion Gause (21) in the second quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Myers-Imagn Images | Robert Myers-Imagn Images

To me, this comes down to how FSU is going to play in this game, physicality wise. It’s simple, if they play like they did in Week 1 against Alabama, I really like the Seminoles’ chances. This will be Miami’s first road game of the season, and it’s not just any road game.

It will be a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium at night. My gut is leading on Florida State here, and I’m going to stick with it.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Seminoles 33, Hurricanes 26

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) catches a pass over East Texas A&M Lions cornerback Kaleb Miles (1) during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Is it weird that I feel slightly more confident after Florida State lost to Virginia? I probably would've had Miami winning by 7 to 10 had the Seminoles not lost on the road, but that loss should force them to refocus on the task ahead.

Gus Malzahn surely has something up his sleeve for the offense; it's going to come down to how well Tony White can get his defense to play after a stinker in Charlottesville a week ago. Can they stop the run and force Carson Beck to throw deep, as he's 8/17 on throws of longer than 20 yards?

This is the Hurricanes' first road game of the season, which is crazy to say this deep into it. And it's going to be a hostile environment with a crowd hungry to hand Mario Cristobal's squad their first loss of the season. And everyone knows Cristobal is bound to screw up at some point. Miami is also fresh off a bye week and is off again next week, so they have extra resources to throw at this game.

I'll still take Miami in a close one, as much as it pains me to say, but this should be an exciting matchup.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Hurricanes 31, Seminoles 30

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Micahi Danzy (19) reacts after a play against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

From a statistical standpoint, Miami holds solid advantages in key areas. The Hurricanes average 270.0 passing yards per game (34th nationally) and 180.5 rushing yards per game (51st) while putting up 36.8 points per outing. Their defense, which is led by DL Ruben Bain Jr., ranks among the nation's best, allowing just 11.5 points per game.

Florida State, meanwhile, is operating a high-octane offense of its own. The Seminoles are generating 336.3 rushing yards per game (2nd in the nation) and averaging 263.8 passing yards per game. Their scoring output is extreme (53.0 points per game) and their defense has allowed a stingy 19.0 points per game, but these numbers are skewed by "cupcake" matchups.

So while Miami has the polished balance and defensive strength, FSU's offensive explosiveness is worthy of respect.

Any right-minded expert would tell you that the Hurricanes hold the edge in nearly every respect, with the lone exception perhaps being the hostile Doak Campbell Stadium crowd.

The Hurricanes' defensive line has been labeled among the best in the nation, their rushing attack is poised to create problems for a Florida State defense that just struggled with Virginia's ground game, and their passing attack features dangerous weapons and matchup nightmares. With a veteran signal-caller commanding the offense, Miami looks every bit the part of a contender.

Head Coach Mario Cristobal and his Hurricanes will enter Doak Campbell Stadium with momentum and confidence on their side. Miami may be the favorite on paper, but with that label comes pressure — and pressure has a way of exposing cracks.

Florida State enters this matchup angry and frustrated after last week's heartbreaking double-overtime defeat, and the Seminoles will have no shortage of motivation or preparation. Doak Campbell Stadium is sold out and primed to recreate the rambunctious environment that gave Alabama fits earlier in the season.

As the underdog, FSU has the freedom to play loose, and the ability to pounce when those cracks in UM's game plan appear. Odds and expectations are one thing, but as Virginia's upset win reminded us, the transfer portal and NIL era have made college football more volatile than ever, with momentum capable of shifting in an instant.

Perhaps it's the homer in me (and my extreme disdain for the Miami Hurricanes) or perhaps it's simply the brand of madness that comes with a rivalry of this magnitude, I believe Florida State finds a way to win this one, and it comes in dramatic fashion, fitting of a Florida State-Miami game.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Seminoles 28, Hurricanes 27

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) runs the ball during the first half against the East Texas A&M Lions at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Miami comes in favored, but Doak Campbell Stadium under the lights and a sold-out crowd usually tilts the momentum toward Florida State. The Hurricanes’ defensive front, with Rueben Bain Jr. leading the charge, will cause problems for FSU’s run game, and Miami’s receivers are talented enough to make plays downfield.

Still, Miami has looked uneven, and it’s hard to trust them to close in a hostile environment.

This is a coin flip to me. If FSU can’t run the ball and get forced into obvious passing situations, the tide may turn in favor of Miami. I don’t think this will be a blowout either way. It feels like a one-score game in the 24–31 range.

If Bain and the defensive line totally dominate, that is a different story, but I don’t expect Miami to come in and lay everything out early.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Hurricanes 28, Seminoles 24

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell reacts after a touchdown during the first half against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

For the first time in nearly a decade, one of the greatest rivalries in college football features two ranked opponents in a game with massive playoff implications. For a variety of reasons, this is a must-win game for FSU. After a rude awakening in Charlottesville, the Seminoles need to bounce back and win out for a shot at the ACC Championship and a potential playoff spot.

Even though the Canes have dominated week in and week out, I wouldn't say they're a sure-fire win by any means. I don't think that the fact that Miami has yet to take the road is being talked about enough, and with the game being played in primetime in the newly renovated Doak Campbell Stadium, I don't think it's going to be so easy for them to walk into Tallahassee and claim victory immediately.

Even if this wasn't a rivalry game, it would be hard not to be excited for the matchup of the nation's best offense vs one of the nation's best defenses, as FSU boasts the No.1 offense in the country, averaging 600 yards and 53 points per game, while Miami is top 10 in rushing defense, scoring defense, and 3rd down defense.

Even though they're coming off a disappointing loss to UVA, I would still favor the Seminoles this weekend, as Doak has been a game-changing factor for the Seminoles all season, and even in their lone loss of 2025, the FSU offense still managed to put up over 500 yards.

If FSU maintains possession of the ball, not turning the ball over like we saw last week, I think they should be able to win a close game in front of the home crowd.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Seminoles 34, Hurricanes 31

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Sep 26, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Florida State Seminoles tight end Randy Pittman Jr. (13) celebrates with Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) after catching a game tying touchdown pass in the final minute during the fourth quarter in front of Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) during the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Doak Campbell Stadium will be rocking on Saturday night, and the Seminoles are going to need every decibel of sound against the Miami Hurricanes.

Miami has two of the best fronts (offensive and defensive) in college football, and it will take FSU’s best effort to keep them at bay. I think Miami gets the job done. It will take a miraculous effort from Tommy Castellanos and company to pull this out. I also think the crowd keeps it close.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-2

Hurricanes 27, Seminoles 23

CONSENSUS: Florida State (4-3)

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