2026 MLB Playoffs: The AL Matchup Screaming Upset

The Major League Baseball playoffs are going to kick off on Tuesday night as the wild-card round begins.

In the American League, the New York Yankees will welcome the Boston Red Sox to town for a three-game series at Yankee Stadium. The American League West champion Houston Astros will welcome the Chicago White Sox to town. In the National League, the National League East champion Atlanta Braves will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies. The red-hot San Diego Padres also will welcome the Chicago Cubs to town for a three-game set.

On the American League side of the bracket, of the two matchups, arguably one is far more likely than the other to produce an upset. That is the Red Sox vs. the Yankees. New York finished the regular season 6 1/2 games ahead of the Red Sox. The Yankees went 93-68, while Boston went 87-75. New York also won the season series vs. Boston, 7-6. With the series being at Yankee Stadium — and New York having the likely American League Cy Young Award champion in Cam Schlittler taking the hill in Game 1, on paper that would likely make the Yankees the favorites. But if there is a team built to upset, it would be the Red Sox.

The Red Sox Could Upset

Sep 16, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

First and foremost, the Yankees potentially could be without their biggest star in Aaron Judge. He's up in the air right now with a calf injury. Even if he does play, how could he be at his best? He returned from the Injured List in September for a brief seven-game stint and slashed .174/.208/.304. Judge wasn't hot before he landed on the Injured List for a second time. It's hard to imagine he'd be his typical threat, even if he does take the field.

That significantly hurts New York's lineup and makes it more lefty-heavy. It just so happens that the Red Sox have elite left-handed pitching. Rookie Payton Tolle and All-Star Ranger Suarez will both be in the mix if the series goes to three games. Not great for New York's lineup.

New York's top slugger may not play. Boston, on the other hand, has gotten positive injury news. Willson Contreras returned to the lineup on Sunday and Garrett Crochet will at least be traveling with the Red Sox to New York. Plus, it doesn't hurt that Roman Anthony has started to get hot right when Boston has needed him the most. He's slashing .333/.375/.633 with one homer, four RBIs, four doubles and one triple over his last eight games. In the same timeframe, Adley Rutschman has also gotten hot. The All-Star backstop is slashing .333/.355/.567 with one home run, three RBIs, four doubles and two runs scored in his last eight games.

The Yankees may be considered favorites on paper, but if there is a matchup in the American League that could have an upset, it's this one.

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