It's possible my initial take on Heath Bell wasn't entirely accurate. Sure, I said he was worth a shot in the late rounds of your draft, but I was also pretty wary of recommending him. So far, the veteran righty reliever is 4-for-4 in save opportunities, and a deeper look at his pedigree, peripherals and past numbers reveals he could be an undeniable steal. Plus, he's clearly a fan of the MLB Network over its more established competition, and I'm just as gaga over that revelation the overpowering fastball with nice movement that he throws. I swear when I tune in to MLB Network around midnight and they bombard me with live feeds of the last couple innings of close games, I feel like I'm watching porn for the first time.
So Bell obviously knows his late-night baseball shows, but he wasn't a highly touted prospect. A three-sport athlete in high school, the Santiago Canyon College standout was named freshman All-America in 1997 before being selected by the Rays in the 69th round of the 1997 amateur draft.
He didn't sign, but caught on with the Mets as an undrafted free agent the following year. By 2006 -- when he was traded to the Padres -- he was a respectable middle reliever with a plus fastball, decent changeup and a solid curve/slider combo. In 2007, he posted great numbers, including a 6-4 record in 81 appearances, 93.2 IP, 2.02 ERA, 2 SVs, 102 Ks, and just 30 BBs. He held opposing batters to a .185 batting average and only allowed 0.29 HR/9. His Batting Average on Balls in Play that season was extraordinarily low (.260), but he was still developing as a pitcher and learning to rely less on his breaking stuff. Bell also stranded a stunning 80.9 percent of runners on base in 2007 (for relievers, an LOB% of about 70 percent is the benchmark). While that figure regressed to 73.3 percent in 2008, and his ERA increased to 3.58, Bell still posted a 1.21 WHIP.
If Bell keeps locating his darting fastball and inducing a GB/FB rate of around 2.0, he could be a Top 10 closer in 2009. If he struggles with his command and relies too heavily on his pedestrian breaking balls, he'll finish with a save rate around 75 percent and an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00. I guess what I'm saying is this: If there's another owner loaded with closers who's dangling Bell in trade offers because he's trying to "sell high" after the Padres' hot start, do what you can to get the deal done.
Note: We're still looking at a very small sample for this season, and while I'm wary of delving too much into results unless the situation warrants deeper examination, I've included the 2009 statistics in italics. I've also restricted my comments (outside of the standard "next in line" pecking order protocol) to "On the Fence" and "Closer-by-Committee" situations. Stats include all games up to and including April 14.
Mariano Rivera, NYY1-for-1 (1005%), 2 IP, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIPNext in line: Damaso MarteThird in line: Edwar Ramirez/Brian Bruney
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS2-for-2 (100%), 3.1 IP, 3 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIPNext in line: Hideki OkajimaThird in line: Takashi Saito/Manny Delcarmen
Joe Nathan, MIN1-for-1 (100%), 3 IP, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIPNext in line: Jesse CrainThird in line: Craig Breslow, Luis Ayala
Brad Lidge, PHI3-for-3 (100%), 5 IP, 7 Ks, 5.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIPNext in line: Ryan MadsonThird in line: Chad Durbin
Joakim Soria, KC4-for-4 (100%), 4 IP, 7 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIPNext in line: Juan CruzThird in line: Kyle Farnsworth/Ron Mahay
Francisco Rodríguez, NYM2-for-2 (100%), 3.2 IP, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIPNext in line: J.J. PutzThird in line: Pedro Feliciano
Jonathan Broxton, LAD3-for-3 (100%), 4 IP, 5 Ks, 2.25 ERA, 0.25 WHIPNext in line: Hong-Chih KuoThird in line: Cory Wade/Guillermo Mota
Bobby Jenks, CWS2-for-2 (100%), 3 IP, 3 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIPNext in line: Matt ThorntonThird in line: Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink
José Valverde, HOU0-for-0 (N/A%), 2 IP, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIPNext in line: LaTroy HawkinsThird in line: Doug Brocail
Kerry Wood, CLE0-for-0 (N/A%), 2 IP, 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIPNext in line: Rafael PerezThird in line: Rafael Betancourt/Jensen Lewis
Matt Capps, PIT2-for-2 (100%), 1.2 IP, 1 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIPNext in line: John GrabowThird in line: Sean Burnett/Tyler Yates
Francisco Cordero, CIN2-for-2 (100%), 3 IP, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIPNext in line: David WeathersThird in line: Jared Burton
Brian Wilson, SF0-for-0 (N/A%), 1.1 IP, 2 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIPNext in line: Jeremy AffeldtThird in line: Bob Howry
Brian Fuentes, LAA2-for-3 (66.7%),3 IP, 3 Ks, 12.00 ERA, 2.33 WHIPNext in line: Scot ShieldsThird in line: Jose Arredondo
Mike González, ATL1-for-2 (50%), 4 IP, 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIPNext in line: Rafael SorianoThird in line: Blaine Boyer/Buddy Carlyle
Heath Bell, SD4-for-4 (100%), 3.2 IP, 4 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIPNext in line: Cla MeredithThird in line: Duaner Sanchez
Chad Qualls, ARI1-for-2 (50%), 3 IP, 5 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIPNext in line: Tony PeñaThird in line: Jon Rauch
Joel Hanrahan, WAS0-for-0 (N/A%), 2 IP, 3 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIPNext in line: Joe BeimelThird in line: Saul Rivera/Steven Shell
George Sherrill, BAL3-for-3 (100%), 4.1 IP, 5 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 2.08 WHIPNext in line: Chris RayThird in line: Jamie Walker
Frank Francisco, TEX1-for-1 (100%), 4.1 IP, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.23 WHIPNext in line: C.J. Wilson/Eddie GuardadoThird in line: Jason Jennings
Matt Lindstrom, FLA1-for-2 (50%), 3 IP, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIPNext in line: Leo NunezThird in line: Reynel Pinto/Scott Proctor
Kevin Gregg, CHI (NL)1-for-2 (50%), 4 IP, 6 Ks, 9.00 ERA, 2.75 WHIPLou Pinella confirmed that Gregg's struggles with pitching more than one inning means he'll be exclusively used as a three-out guy this season. This is probably best considering the shut-down setup man the Cubs have in Carlos Marmol. According to the Cubs' Web site, Gregg isn't deterred and knew there would be some knee issues following major surgery: "I've talked to the doctor who did my surgery and talked to the team doctors....They say I'm doing pretty good, as far as the amount of soreness I have. It's working in my favor."Next in line: Carlos MármolThird in line: Aaron Heilman/Jeff Samardzija (minors)
B.J. Ryan, TOR1-for-2 (50%), 2.2 IP, 1 K, 13.50 ERA, 3.38 WHIPHe's still in limbo after his bad start, but the crafty veteran lefty hasn't had much of a chance to redeem himself yet.Next in line: Scott DownsThird in line: Jesse Carlson/Jason Frasor
Huston Street, COL1-for-1 (100%), 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 10.13 ERA, 2.25 WHIPThe obviously catastrophic performance expressed in these '09 numbers was actually a non-save situation. Can't fault him for that, so for now, Street is still the man.Next in line: Manny CorpasThird in line: Alan Embree/Taylor Buchholz (elbow)
Fernando Rodney, DET2-for-2 (100%), 3 IP, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIPRodney has been solid in a closing role and won't yield to fast-track rookie fireballer Ryan Perry unless he struggles getting outs in the ninth. Joel Zumaya looked okay in a Class A Lakeland appearance, and although the Chula Vista native was apparently under the weather, there were no shoulder problems to report and his fastball velocity was in the mid-90s.Next in line: Brandon LyonThird in line: Joel Zumaya/Ryan Perry
Troy Percival, TB1-for-1 (100%), 1 IP, 0 Ks, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIPDan Wheeler's got great stuff, but he does melt down once in a while, just like he did in the ninth against the Yanks on Tuesday night. Still, Wheeler will take the reins from Percival if the veteran closer has any setbacks.Next in line: Dan WheelerThird in line: Grant Balfour/Jason Isringhausen (DL)
Brad Ziegler, OAK2-for-3 (66.7%), 6 IP, 5 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIPZiegler hasn't done anything to lose his job yet, but will probably need lots of help from Russ Springer, Santiago Casilla and lefty Jerry Blevins if Joey Devine is lost for the season.Next in line: Jerry Blevins/Russ SpringerThird in line: Santiago Casilla
Brandon Morrow, SEA2-for-2 (100%), 3.2 IP, 5 Ks, 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIPDavid Aardsma would probably be the everyday closer if he could cut down on his walks, but he's definitely got the best stuff in the next to Morrow. So far this season, the Mariners pen has been collectively solid: 19 IP, 2.37 ERA, .154 BAA -- although Morrow did get knocked around like a Weeble in his non-save situation last week.Next in line: David AardsmaThird in line: Mark Lowe/Roy Corcoran
Carlos Villanueva, MIL1-for-2 (50%), 4 IP, 4 Ks, 11.25 ERA, 1.75 WHIPVillanueva has been shaky thus far. Amazingly, the remedy for the Brewers bullpen hypertension might actually be more Todd Coffey -- who has probably replaced Seth McClung as the most likely candidate to supplant the current closer. There's still not a pressing need to rush Trevor Hoffman back, but the Brewers brass wants a return on their investment in the future-HOFer pretty soon.Next in line: Todd CoffeyThird in line: Seth McClung/David Riske
Ryan Franklin, STL1-for-1 (100%), 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 HLD, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIPOft-injured starter and former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter is headed to the DL with a strained rib-cage muscle, according the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The veteran pitcher's injury was sustained while batting and doesn't directly impact the St. Louis bullpen, but it's thought that Carpenter could be out for several weeks. That means that Chris Pérez might be called up from Triple-A, and he'll likely be in line for some save opportunities.Next in line: Jason MotteThird in line: Brad Thompson/Chris Pérez
Trevor Hoffman, MILNo exact word when Hoffman will be ready to rejoin the team, but the recent news is encouraging. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that he felt good Monday playing catch, and there are plans for bullpen sessions this week. If all goes well in the ensuing rehab outings, he could be back before May.
Joey Devine, OAKDevine has been placed on the 60-day DL and his elbow injury appears to be serious. He's in for more testing -- a bone scan and CT scan with Dr. Andrews -- and some type of surgery is likely. We'll know more by the end of the week.