Week 14 NFL DFS Plays: Top Values, Low Ownership Players and Stacks

SI Fantasy analysts Ben Heisler and Michael Fabiano break down their favorite value-priced and low ownership options for Week 14 on DraftKings.

Author:
Ben Heisler and Michael Fabiano
Publish date:
Dec 11, 2020

Every week, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Additionally, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler discusses several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field; along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.

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Michael Fabiano's Week 14 Top DFS Values on DraftKings

RB: Jonathan Taylor - Indianapolis ($5,800) at Las Vegas

Taylor has really started to turn things around over the past few weeks and is currently the RB22 based off his DraftKings price. In his last two games, Taylor has led all Colts RBs in both snaps and touches.

His matchup this week against the Raiders is a juicy one as well, with Vegas giving up 16 total TDs and the fifth most fantasy points to RBs. Last week, they made Jets backup RB Ty Johnson look like Freeman McNeil!

WR: Curtis Samuel - Carolina Panthers ($5,200) vs Denver

Samuel was just activated off the COVID-19 list, and with D.J. Moore still on the list while nursing an ankle injury, it only elevates more targets for him.

Additionally, Samuel is $1,000 cheaper than teammate Robby Anderson, has averaged 17 fantasy points/game since Week 7, and has finished as the WR13 during that time. His matchup against the Broncos defense is excellent as well as they have given up the seventh most points to WRs lined out wide on the road this season.

TE: Dalton Schultz - Dallas ($3,500) at Cincinnati

He's the TE18 based on price, but Schultz ranks 11th amongst TEs in targets since Week 9.

Additionally, it's hard not to like ANY tight end against Cincinnati. The Bengals have given up 10 or more fantasy points to the TE position eight times this year, as well as seven TDs to TEs, and an average of 16.1 fantasy points to the position overall.

It's not often that I get to play anyone from my Dallas Cowboys anymore, but when Schultz is seeing this amount of targets, I'll happily oblige as part of the, wait for it, Andy Dalton Revenge Game.

Additional DraftKings DFS Values - Week 14

QB: Mitch Trubisky - $5,600 (HOU @ CHI) | Mike Glennon - $5,100 (TEN @ JAX)

RB: Kenyan Drake - $5,500 (ARZ @ NYG) | Melvin Gordon - $5,200 (DEN @ CAR) | J.D. McKissic - $4,900 (WSH @ SF)

WR: Jamison Crowder - $5,400 (NYJ @ SEA) | T.Y. Hilton - $5,100 (IND @ LV) | Tyler Boyd - $4,900 (DAL @ CIN)

TE: Logan Thomas - $3,500 (WSH @ SF) | Jordan Akins - $2,900 (HOU @ CHI)

D/ST: Carolina - $2,900 vs DEN | Dallas - $2,400 at CIN

Be sure to check out Fabiano's Week 14 rankings before finalizing any lineup decisions or if your league has special scoring rules, sign up for SI Fantasy+ for customized rankings.

MORE: Week 14 Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools Hub

Ben Heisler's Week 14 Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings

QB: Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers ($6,800) vs Atlanta

After putting up just over 6 DraftKings points vs. the Patriots in a clunker last week at home, Justin Herbert's price tag dropped just $100 from Week 13. This puts him in a price category with several other high-upside potential QB options for the week in Tom Brady ($6,900 vs MIN), Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 at JAX), and Taysom Hill ($6,600 at PHI); all of which are projected to carry higher ownership than Herbert.

The Falcons defense is improved since they brought in Raheem Morris, right? Last week's highest scoring QB, Derek Carr, was abysmal against them a few weeks ago as they forced four fumbles, and five sacks. They've also only allowed 27 points in their last two games.

If you look closer, the Falcons are STILL giving up 26.6 DraftKings points/game to opposing QBs this season. That's tops in the NFL. They've also given up the third most rushing yards and are tied for the most rushing TDs allowed to QBs as well.

For as bad as Herbert was vs the Patriots, he's been so good all year. On DraftKings, he's averaged 26.11 points/game up until last week's disaster. That's just slightly lower than the worst-place Falcons vs the position. Start him back up with confidence.

Additionally, even with Julio Jones out this week, this still appears to be a great potential game stack environment.

RB: Ronald Jones - Tampa Bay ($6,100) vs Minnesota

Look at the Bucs' schedule down the stretch of the season and tell me anyone else in the league has it easier?

Week 14: vs Minnesota
Week 15: at Atlanta
Week 16: at Detroit
Week 17: vs Atlanta

The Bucs should be recharged and refreshed off their late bye week, and already appear to have made considerable adjustments after their recent struggles.

One of those adjustments is to give Ronald Jones the ball consistently moving forward. It's one thing just to say you'll do it, but I genuinely believe Bruce Arians when he says they need to get Ronald Jones 20+ carries each game.

In games that Jones has carried the ball 20+ times, he has had 21.8, 29.1, and 28.8 DraftKings points in those games.

This week he gets the Vikings who are giving up just under 24 DK pts/game to RBs this year. With DFS players likely attacking the Vikings woeful secondary, you can pivot to RoJo with less ownership and potentially a much stronger game script to go off at a very reasonable price.

WR: Tee Higgins - Cincinnati ($4,800) vs Dallas

As my guy Michael Fabiano alluded to earlier, the Andy Dalton "Revenge Game" is actually a somewhat intriguing fantasy environment. And with so many Cowboys underpriced for the week, it's worth considering a Bengal to play on the other side.

While Tyler Boyd likely has the better matchup in the slot against Jourdan Lewis, Higgins is the big play threat who has outplayed Boyd all season.

Via FantasyLabs, Higgins leads the Bengals in receiving yards on 12 less receptions than Tyler Boyd, has two more touchdowns, and has 121 AirYAC per game.

He's also seen 23% of the team's targets since their Week 9 bye. Even with Brandon Allen slinging the pigskin around, Higgins has caught 10 of his last 12 targets for 100 yards and a TD, and gets one of his highest upside matchups of the season.

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Benny's Sneaky Correlation Stack for Week 14

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RB: Ronald Jones ($6,100) | DEF: Tampa Bay ($2,900)

Some of you may be annoyed with this play, but after Julio Jones was ruled out for Atlanta, I just can't buy in for a full game stack the way I planned anymore.

If you check out the SI Fantasy Podcast above, Steve Renner of our weekly "Ambush" series and I both really like Russell Wilson as a naked QB play since he tends to spread it around, and you can still go to Herbert and one or two of his pass catchers without necessarily running it back with one of Matt Ryan's targets in Atlanta. Additionally, stacks like the Chiefs and Packers are always in play, making them the opposite of "sneaky."

Instead, let's focus on the correlation play with Jones and the Buccaneers defense. With the expectation that Jones can go off in this matchup, the game script changes for this game. I mentioned earlier that in the three games Jones had 20+ carries, he finished with an average of more than 26.5 DK points/game. In those three games, the Bucs went on to win 38-31 over the Chargers, 38-10 over Green Bay, and 46-23 over Carolina. Two of those three games ended up being blowouts with Brady throwing for five TDs in the matchup vs Los Angeles.

In the three Vikings losses by more than one possession (nine points or higher), Kirk Cousins has thrown seven interceptions in three games while taking six sacks.

There's plenty of really sharp DFS players who see this game as a potential shootout on both sides, and with the way Cousins, Adam Thielen and potential offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Jefferson are playing, I get the logic. But in tournaments, the pivot to the Bucs running game and defense could end up being the low-owned play with just as much upside.