Week 15 NFL DFS Plays: Top Values, Low Ownership Players and Stacks

SI Fantasy analysts Ben Heisler and Michael Fabiano review their top values and low ownership options for Week 15 on DraftKings.
Author:
Updated:
Original:

Every week, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Additionally, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler discusses several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field; along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.

If you play DFS, or want to start playing with more confidence, become a SI Fantasy PRO member to get access to our NFL SI SCORES featuring rankings and projections from High Stakes champion Shawn Childs. Plus, your membership covers EVERY SPORT for less than $20 month as well as all of our premium betting content from insiders such as Frankie Taddeo and Casey Olson.

Check it out and subscribe TODAY.

SI-BUTTON-JOIN-THE-CLUB

Michael Fabiano's Week 15 Top DFS Values on DraftKings

QB: Drew Brees - New Orleans ($5,900) vs Kansas City

The Chiefs defense has allowed 21+ fantasy points to QBs in four of their last five games, with Drew Lock being the only QB to not hit that mark.

Kansas City has also allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, and DK Sportsbook is expecting a barnburner with a 51.5-point total.

RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. - San Francisco ($5,100) at Dallas

Keep tabs on the status of 49ers RB Raheem Mostert. He missed practice on Wednesday and had an MRI on his ankle earlier in the week. If Wilson is the guy, he's a great play against the pitiful Dallas Cowboys defense giving up the second most rushing yards to the RB position all season long. The Cowboys' run defense has been a fantasy goldmine in 2020, giving up 25 PPG to opposing RBs. 

WR: T.Y. Hilton - Indianapolis ($5,500) vs Houston

I've been staying at "The Hilton" the last three weeks, and I'm feeling pretty good about it! He's been on absolute fire over the last three weeks. Since Week 12. He's third amongst WRs in points, he's averaging over 16 yards a catch and he's owned the Texans over the course of his career.

In four of the last five games against Houston, he's given fantasy managers 15+ fantasy points, including in a performance from just a few weeks ago. Overall, the Texans have given up 18 touchdowns and the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2020.

Additional DraftKings DFS Values - Week 15

QB: Philip Rivers - $5,900 (HOU @ IND) | Mitchell Trubisky - $5,500 (CHI @ MIN)

RB: J.D. McKissic - $5,800 (SEA @ WSH) | Kenyan Drake - $5,500 (PHI @ ARZ)

WR: Antonio Brown - $5,400 (TB @ ATL) | Lynn Bowden - $3,600 (NE @ MIA

TE: Tyler Higbee - $3,800 (NYJ @ LAR) | Irv Smith Jr. - $3,600 (MIN @ CHI) | Hayden Hurst - $3,300 (TB @ ATL

D/ST: San Francisco - $2,900 at DAL | Minnesota - $2,400 vs CHI

Be sure to check out Fabiano's Week 15 rankings before finalizing any lineup decisions or if your league has special scoring rules, sign up for SI Fantasy+ for customized rankings.

MORE: Week 15 Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools Hub

Ben Heisler's Week 15 Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings

QB: Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee ($6,700) vs Detroit

Wait, wait, slow down. How in the world is Ryan Tannehill against a terrible defense likely to be a low-owned play? What am I paying you for, Mr. Heisler? 

Well for starters, you're not. This article is available for the price of, "on the house."

And why is Tannehill likely to be low-owned? For starters, remember that guy Derrick Henry? Even at $9,500 on DraftKings he's projected to be the highest owned RB on the slate between 25-30%. And why wouldn't you want a piece of King Henry right now? He leads the NFL in rushing by 180 yards over Dalvin Cook, could finish with over 2,000 rushing yards on the season for the first time since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and gets to face a Detroit Lions defense allowing 31.7 DK points to RBs, second-most in the NFL.

A big game for Henry likely doesn't correlate with a big game for Tannehill. However, the Lions are also awful against the pass as well, tied for the third most passing touchdowns allowed along with the seventh highest DK points vs QBs (21.9). 

And did I mention that the Titans pass defense is just as bad, if not worse than the Lions? Tennessee is allowing the third-most DK points per game vs. opposing WRs in 2020 (43.2), so assuming Matthew Stafford plays, this puts more onus on the right arm of Tannehill and his receivers to keep up. It's a delightful leverage spot in tournaments if you can stomach the idea of not rostering Derrick Henry.

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Kansas City ($5,800) at New Orleans

C-E-H can occasionally go M-I-A throughout the season. While he's been rather silent the last two weeks, take a closer look at some of his numbers.

Last week, Edwards-Helaire got 75% of the snaps at RB in the Chiefs win vs Miami. That was the third highest amongst all running backs in Week 14. His 16 rushing attempts only netted 32 yards, but the number of carries was the highest amount since KC's Week 6 win at Buffalo. And lastly, his six targets was his highest number since Week 5 in their lone loss of the season to the Raiders at Arrowhead.

C-E-H is getting snaps, and the Chiefs are playing in close games. After starting the season 6-2-0 against the spread, they've failed to cover in their last five games despite winning all of them straight up. The volume adds up in a game where they'll need Edwards-Helaire to deliver as a pass catcher against a Saints defense that just allowed 136 all-purpose yards and two rushing scores to Eagles RB Miles Sanders.

WR: D.J. Chark - Jacksonville ($5,000) at Baltimore

As I mentioned in the video with SI's Michael Fabiano, D.J. Chark is a double-threat this week: a DFS value and low-owned. His $5K DraftKings price tag is the lowest it's been all season!

Despite the drop in salary, Chark has still seen an average of eight targets in his last three games, and now gets his buddy Garner Minshew back. Via Pro Football Focus,  against a Ravens defense that just gave up 34 DK points to Browns QB Baker Mayfield on Monday night.

Via Andrew Erickson of Pro Football Focus, Chark has seen eight end zone targets in 2020, seven of which have been thrown his way by Minshew. They'll be looking each other's way frequently against a Ravens defense decimated with injuries in the secondary. They just gave up 34 DK points to Browns QB Baker Mayfield on Monday night and have allowed the third most fantasy points to WRs over the last four weeks.

Chark has also seen the seventh-most Air Yards over the last month, via Rotoworld.

SI Fantasy PRO members not only get comprehensive DFS content, but also ALL of our betting information for NFL, CFB, MLB, NHL, NBA and UFC. NFL picks and prop bet information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo have now gone 55-42-1 overall against the spread.

SI-BUTTON-GET-THE-PICKS (1)

Benny's Sneaky Leverage Stack for Week 15

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

QB: Philip Rivers ($5,900) WR: T.Y. Hilton ($5,500) | WR: Michael Pittman ($4,800)

RUN-IT-BACK OPTION: TE: Jordan Akins ($2,800)

Much like Derrick Henry, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is likely to be one of the heavier chalk plays of the slate against Houston's run defense. In fact, no team gives up more DraftKings points to opposing RBs than the Texans.

While the Titans passing game stack is still my favorite, you can pivot over to the Colts for another major leverage play that should come in even lesser-owned; with even more salary savings.

Since mid-October, Rivers has turned his fantasy season around, with only one game in the single digits for DK points (8.08). In fact, if you take out one rough game in November vs the Ravens, Rivers has averaged 21.22 DK points over his last seven games which would make him a top 10 scoring QB. 

Fabs already discussed how good T.Y. Hilton has been since Week 12, and if you recall Steve Renner's "Week 14 Ambush," Michael Pittman is due to explode in a very promising matchup.

As for Akins as the run-it-back play? It's an easy punt at tight end who saw six targets a week ago, is priced under $3K, and could easily 3x just by falling into the end zone, which he nearly did last week.

These four plays alone cost just $19K, which gives you a cool $31K to fill out the rest of your lineup with relative ease.

Additional Low Ownership / High Upside Targets

QB: Deshaun Watson ($6,800) HOU @ IND

QB: Matt Ryan ($5,400) TB @ ATL

RB: James Robinson ($7,100) JAX @ BAL

RB: J.K. Dobbins ($5,900) JAX @ BAL

WR: Tyler Lockett ($6,700) SEA @ WSH

WR: Chris Godwin ($6,200) TB @ ATL

WR: Marvin Jones - if Matthew Stafford is active ($5,700) DET @ TEN

TE: Dallas Goedert ($3,900) PHI @ ARI

TE: Zach Ertz ($3,400) PHI @ ARI

MORE FROM SI FANTASY

- Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 15

- Week 15 DFS Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools HUB