2021 Fantasy Baseball: AL / NL Auction Pitchers Strategy
Pitching is the most challenging part of fantasy baseball. It would be easy if you could spend a ton of money on your pitching staff in an auction. You could build a strong base in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, which would give you room for a mistake or two in the decision-making at the backend of your starting rotation. Your offense would suffer for sure.
In the high-stakes market, you have no way of trading your pitching for hitting. It’s incredible to see how hard it is to keep half of your pitching points, never mind getting 66 percent of the needed winning pitching points. In a non-trading format, you need to find a balance in your budget between hitting and pitching. Pitching is the most frustrating because of the high rate of injuries and failures.
If a fantasy owner had a choice, I believe they would spend most of their money on hitting and fade pitching. In a way, this should be the plan every year, at least in the pre-game planning.
Searching for Values
When you are evaluating the pitching pool, you need to look for buying opportunities. It could be a closer in waiting who might get the job early in the season. Maybe, it is a $10 pitcher who could match a few $20 arms. After reviewing the players, you have to decide if you can build your staff for less money than expected.
Dealing with Saves
Many teams will buy one closer. If your one closer gets 35 saves, you might get four points in saves in 12-team Roto leagues. It doesn’t seem like much of a return on a $15-plus investment. The truth is you need to get over 50 saves in most seasons in AL or NL auction leagues to get in the top third in saves, which is one reason many fantasy owners punt or try to buy saves cheap. It’s hard to justify spending 30 percent of your pitching budget to be rewarded with minimal points.
A fantasy owner needs to decide first what he wants to do with saves during the auction. After reviewing all the relievers, do you see anyone you want to invest full price on in the auction? If not, is there someone discounted who could return top value? Then, is there a reliever who you believe will get a job at some point in the season? After answering all of those questions, you then have to decide how much you want to invest in saves. I would never punt saves totally. Why not grab a couple of closers in waiting in the reserve rounds. It won’t cost you any of your auction budget, plus a fantasy owner never knows how the season unfolds. Saves is a category that could be the difference between winning or losing a league. The better you are at getting a high percentage of saves per dollar invested, the better fantasy owner you will be.
I know a stud closer offers more than saves. If the price is right, you might have to bite. In the early years of fantasy baseball, top closers were going over close to $30. The market has corrected itself where the best closers will cost around $20. If you are willing to pay $15 for a closer, you better be ready to snap up a top closer if the bidding slows down before $20.
Developing an Ace Foundation
Once you have decided on your plan for saves, you need to find a couple of starters who will be your pitching staff's anchors. This part of an auction is a great equalizer. If you invest top dollars on an ace, it restricts the rest of your pitching staff unless you are willing to spend a higher percentage of your budget on pitching.
When Pedro Martinez was in his prime, you could pay over $40 for him and still dominate the pitching categories. He had a massive gap over most of the field in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
You could invest $35-plus on Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, or Shane Bieber this season, but how much of an edge does he have over the rest of the top pitchers in the American League?
Are you better off buying two $20 starters to build your base? Is there enough talent where you could get four solid starters for around $50? Is it better to buy 200, 400, or 750 good innings? The answers to these questions are in each year's pitching inventory.
In some years, the pitching pool doesn't appear to have a lot of top talent. Other years, there might be enough to go around. After looking at the pitching inventory, it is best to find two maybe three pitchers you want to have as your core pitching staff.
Like the hitting side, you have to find actual auction prices to see if you can build your pitching staff base. If you decide you want to spend $60 on two starters and one closer, you need to know if those player’s prices will fit into your plan. If you view a pitcher as the key to your team, you might need to throw him on the mat early to see if you can execute your plan.
Pitching Spending
Most teams will spend between $60 and $80 on pitching. By making a $60 investment on three pitchers, you hope to setup your base for all pitching categories. Your next six pitchers will be the difference between winning and losing. With limited funds, you will need to be well prepared and disciplined to fill your staff. If you bite early on an $8 pitcher, it might cost you a chance at two $4 pitchers you want later on. Sometimes it isn’t the player's price; it’s the timing of when you roster them.
In some leagues, a fantasy owner or two will try to dominate the pitching categories by spending $100 or more dollars. When this happens, it tends to push up the top pitching inventory.
Sometimes when the top-end pitching pool looks similar, all owners come to the table with the idea of buying a second-tier ace, which lowers the price of the top pitchers in the auction.
Your pitching plan will dictate how much money you have to build your hitting team. It is easy to cheat pitching and spend the money on hitting. In some years, there will be an opportunity to do this. In others, you could be punting ERA and WHIP. You can still get over 50 percent of the pitching points if you can lead wins, strikeouts, and saves. There are so many different ways to go in pitching.
It would help if you found a plan that allows you the best chance to win year in and year out. In a non-trading auction league, I believe you invest in your core players.
Do your homework to find opportunities in the auction. Come to the auction with an early strategy and a late-game plan. You have to have enough discipline to execute in the end game to get the players you want. The players you believe are the difference makers.
READ MORE: 2021 Fantasy Baseball Hub
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