2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: The Breakout Team - Upcoming Stars At Every Position
After identifying my breakout hitter and breakout pitchers for the 2021 season, here’s a look at the top other options at each position:
C Will Smith, LAD
After showing growth in his approach in 2020, Smith looks poised to push his game to the top of the catcher rankings. He hits a ton of fly balls, which will lead to 30-plus home runs when the Dodgers commit to him as their lead/full-time catcher. I expect 30-plus home runs with plenty of RBIs. Smith will hit his way into more playing time in 2021.
1B Josh Naylor, CLE
Heading into this season, Naylor won’t have a first base qualification. He should work his way into the bulk of at-bats at first for Cleveland. Naylor has a major league approach while waiting for his power to develop. On the early depth chart, he is listed to start at right field. Cleveland has many moving parts at first base and two outfield positions, which helps depress Naylor’s ADP (335) in March. His swing should help in batting average with a surge expected in power.
2B Brendan Rodgers, COL
With Nolan Arenado traded to the Cardinals, Rodgers looks poised to earn a full-time job in 2021. He has a first-round pedigree (2015) while battling injuries over the past couple of seasons. His swing will produce 25-plus home runs with 500 at-bats while also adding some complementary speed. I’ve been willing to cheat second base this draft season with my eyes on landing Rodgers as one of my options.
3B Alec Bohm, PHI
Bohm flashed late in 2020, putting him front and center on fantasy owner’s radar this season. His approach grades well while also offering underlying speed. With the Phillies last year, Bohm hit over 50 percent ground balls, which restricted his power output. This year he may very well hit second in Philadelphia’s lineup. There is no doubt that Bohm will be drafted in the first four rounds in 2022, meaning he should be a value based on his current ADP (113).
SS Elvis Andrus, OAK
His best years may be behind him, but that doesn't mean he can't outperform the low bar of his expectations. The front-end of the shortstop position is loaded with talent, which leads to Andrus being only a late flier as a middle infield option in most leagues. He doesn’t fit the breakout list by name, but he does by his ADP (393). The A’s intend on hitting him first or second in the batting order, which will be a win for his counting stats. Andrus won’t steal 30 bags, but he’ll pick a minimum of 15 steals while offering some power. His price point works better in 15-team leagues.
OF Victor Robles, WAS
After flashing in his rookie season, Robles was a wasted fantasy pick in 2020. The stats “drafters” had his low hard-hit rate while the talk of him batting leadoff has sparked more interest of late. Robles has a unique skill set, making him attractive for a team looking for speed later in drafts (ADP – 138). He won’t put on a show with home runs, but Robles will get double-digit home runs with a full season of at-bats. His speed projects in the mid-30s while owning more upside if he gets one base more in 2021. Robles is a player that fantasy owners should fight for in drafts.
OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA
A knee issue in mid-March slowed down Kelenic’s rise in drafts. His injury looks minor. In 2019, he played at three levels in the minors with a 20/20 skill set. The Mariners don’t have the ideal player to hit at the top of their lineup, which may be a massive win for Kelenic. If he played in 2020, his path would have put him at AAA while being on track to be in the majors this year. I’m willing to pay a premium for Kelenic as a buy and hold while understanding that I will be able to cover him later in the drafts. A go big or go home selection.
OF Nick Senzel, CIN
Over two seasons with the Reds, Senzel has failed to live up to expectations. He continues to battle injuries despite having the pedigree (first-round draft pick in 2016) to post a breakthrough season. When at his best, Senzel will hit for average with an intriguing balanced skill set. The Reds want him to start in center field and bat leadoff, pointing to fantasy gold based on his ADP (234) if he can stay healthy all year.
SP Ian Anderson, ATL
Anderson comes to the majors with an electric changeup with some questions with his command. His right arm showed plenty of grit last postseason when he went 2-0 over 18.2 innings with a 0.96 ERA and 24 strikeouts. Anderson tossed 135.2 innings in 2019 in the minors, which gives him a chance at 30 starts with the Braves in 2021. His next step is throwing more strikes, leading to explosive upside in strikeouts.
SP Shohei Ohtani, LAA
After missing over a year and a half from pitching after having TJ surgery, Ohtani had a setback in 2020. He ended up being a bust in all areas of the game. The Angels will only pitch him once a week, making him challenging to manage with those starts scheduled to be on Sunday. His fastball pushed over 100 MPH in early spring, which is a sign that Ohtani is ready to rock and roll this season. Look for double wins with a sub 3.00 ERA and 140-plus strikeouts.
SP Michael Kopech, CWS
Kopech hasn’t played in the majors since 2018. After missing a year with his recovery from TJ surgery, he elected to opt-out last season with Covid concerns. Kopech looked sharp in spring training, which suggested a fun year. The White Sox plan on using in the bullpen early in 2021, which puts him more in the buy and hold category. His command needs more, but Kopech is tough to hit with excellent upside in strikeouts. Chicago should give him about 130 innings of work with a minimum of 20 starts.
CL James Karinchak, CLE
There is a wide range of opinions on the value/role of Karinchak in 2021. He has a dynamic swing and miss combination in his fastball and curveball, but Karinchak does issue too many free passes. His ADP (102) puts him in a problematic range if he doesn’t secure the majority of Cleveland's saves. My best advice is to buy his high ceiling while taking the free handcuff (Emmanuel Clase) later in the draft. I’m not buying the Nick Wittgren talk in the 9th inning. He served up 14 home runs over his last 81.2 innings (1.5 per nine) in the majors.
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