Week 13 Dynasty Stock Watch: Buy, Sell, Hold Trade Advice
As noted in Jen Piacenti’s Week 13 waiver wire report, those of you who handcuffed your top running backs are likely sitting pretty with players like Alexander Mattison, Chuba Hubbard, Dontrell Hilliard, Tony Jones Jr. and D’Onta Foreman securing starting touches in place of injured first-round backs.
Hindsight may be 20/20, but your dynasty league should run deep enough that holding a boatload of backups is the status quo.
Which leads me to this week’s dynasty tip: roster size.
Check Week 13 Lines and Props at SI Sportsbook
I don’t like shallow leagues. You shouldn’t be able to pick up a starting-caliber player off the waiver wire in a dynasty. Sure, there’s going to be extenuating circumstances where a third-string back overtakes the primary backup, yet even still, guys should have the roster flexibility to add Kene Nwangwu, Mattison’s backup. Ameer Abdullah should also be added as he looks like the backup to Hubbard.
f your dynasty has around 10 or 11 starters (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 DST), I’d first recommend getting rid of kickers and team defenses in place of IDP. Next, I’d recommend this league allow for at least a dozen or more bench spots. This rewards proactive players who churn the bottom of their roster with the latest and greatest. Your roster, in any league for that matter, at the end of the season should look almost nothing like it did before Week 1 because you’ve been hitting the add/drop hard and trading up a storm. I like my benches thicker than a bowl of oatmeal.
Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
QB Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Whew. Well, it’s been one heckuva down year for Wilson and the Seahawks. I don’t have a crystal ball but I think the writing is on the wall for this franchise. Going all the way up to the top, I think head coach (and executive VP of football operations) Pete Carroll is done and the team will try to shove off in a new direction. I think they tear it all down. They’ve mortgaged the future with no first-round pick in 2022 and they only had three draft picks in 2021. The Cardinals are the class of the division, the Rams are struggling right now but could easily make a postseason run and the 49ers still have their moments—plus Trey Lance is waiting in the wings. I think that broader divisional context pushes the team to make a change at the top.
I’m not seeing much of a silver lining, besides Wilson's pedigree. A franchise reset would inject optimism. DK Metcalf can rebound back into elite status, Tyler Lockett is a very good WR2, and an incoming rookie RB can overtake Alex Collins and challenge Chris Carson for playing time. The offensive line should be the focus over the next two drafts and I like some of the young defensive talent like Darrell Taylor and Jordyn Brooks. There are pieces that would make this a good gig to a new head coach.
All of this is to say that in a best-case scenario, the Seahawks purge Carroll and start anew. I want to be on the ground floor of such an exercise because a pair of fresh eyes could reinvigorate what’s become a scrambled mess of an offensive attack. Worst-case scenario if you acquire Wilson is you will endure another bad year in 2022 and hope for the purge again. I think Wilson is a buy, even in rebuilds, because I don’t believe his price will fall much further. It could dip further with another bad 2022, but I’m not betting on Wilson to have another bad year as he’s carried this team too often.
There’s also the possibility Wilson could be traded to help the rebuild and perhaps land in a favorable situation.
Price check: 1QB 2022 early 2nd / 2QB 2022 mid 1st and mid 3rd
Win-Now: BUY
Rebuild: BUY
Superflex: BUY
QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots
About two weeks ago, I talked about the great lengths the Patriots are going to protect their young quarterback. The ball is coming out quick. The Pats often use motion and play action to create slight hesitation on defense. Most passes are going to the flats and short areas of the field. It’s not a fair comparison, but watch how the Chargers use Justin Herbert. He’s dropping back and slinging it downfield. LA is challenging his arm and opposing defenses have to cover the whole field.
We saw last year the Titans did a great job insulating Ryan Tannehill with a power running game, dominant defense and timely play action passes. They didn’t need to rely on him to win games, because games were close-knit affairs. The Pats want to do the same with Jones. I’m not saying Jones is a bust. I just feel the media is hyping him up a bit too much. New England wins because of their defense and they’re looking for just enough offense to get the job done—and not one iota more.
This is why I feel Jones doesn’t present a good value and he’s close to maxed out. Look at what the Patriots did with Jimmy Garoppolo. They squeezed every drop of draft capital out of him by keeping the game at his speed and at his talent level. We’re simply seeing a more accelerated version of that with Jones.
Here’s an overly-specific situational move: I would love to trade Jones after the Pats make—and then lose—the Super Bowl. I think that would really max out his value and I’d trade him afterward because my read is that he’s good, but he’s not that good—a capable second QB in two-QB leagues and nothing more.
Good enough works for some, but I want to keep churning for picks rather than watch him thrive in low expectations and impending mediocrity.
Price check: 1QB 2022 early 2nd / 2QB 2023 early 1st
Win-Now: Hold
Rebuild: Hold
Superflex: Hold
Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Back in Week 7, I discussed selling McCaffrey. At that time, he was still injured but poised to return in the near future. He also probably retained a top-five dynasty back designation in most people’s rankings. Now? I doubt it. Look, many may view this as a buy-low opportunity and didn’t view him as a sell back in Week 7 or even now. I’ve seen enough and you probably didn’t act soon enough to take advantage. Now, you'd be selling him on a second discount after missing out on the previous selling opportunity. Can you still sell now? Sure, but you’re selling yourself even more short now and you may as well hold him unless someone overpays.
Price check: 2022 mid 1st and 2nd
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Sell
RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
I really love the way he runs and even though he’s often splitting touches with J.D. McKissic (and losing goal-line looks to him as well), I just appreciate the “chip on his shoulder” style of play he brings. I think he’s played up his offseason expectations but I also could understand how many felt he should’ve done more this year. We probably should’ve tried to buy-in about a month ago when he was underperforming. Maybe we can wait until he gets injured to revisit for a price check.
Price check: two 2023 mid 2nds
Win-now: Hold
Rebuild: Buy
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Fantasy & NFL:
• Week 13 Waiver Wire
• Fantasy Impact: CMC Season Over
• Fantasy Impact: Dalvin Cook Injury
• Week 13 Bye Options
• MMQB Power Rankings
