2022 Fantasy Baseball: The POSB Draft Strategy
Maybe the most straightforward draft strategy to execute is POSB (power and stolen bases). This theory is built on drafting power and speed, with batting average being a secondary consideration. The goal is to dominate home runs and stolen bases, hopefully leading to high scores in runs and RBI.
MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
Fading batting average
In most drafts, fantasy managers avoid players with batting average risk. As a result, low-average power hitters are littered through the player pool while not being targeted by many teams until the later rounds. With this draft style, it creates a gold mine.
By buying weaker pieces to the puzzle, a drafter can open up some early rounds to make sure they build their pitching staff base. A fantasy manager would like to finesse this plan in the ideal situation, so their team doesn't finish last in batting average. A high strikeout rate hitter can still post a respectable batting average in any given year. In a season with a deep starting pitching inventory, batting average could be depressed, helping this draft plan win.
Batting average baseline
What is a negative batting average? Over the recent fantasy baseball seasons, a fantasy team’s batting average needs to finish over .270 to rank in the upper levels of the standings. Therefore, any baseball player who hits .250 or below would be a drain on your overall team’s batting average.
It’s possible that three or four low average hitters breakout in batting average in the same year, helping this type of drafter to finish higher than expected in batting average. You also can flip a weak asset in a trading league if he gets off to a hot start. You can still win in 12 or 15 team leagues by punting one category.
Plus power hitters and speed only players
A fantasy manager with this thought process must avoid too much flash and dash. This plan can accept weaker pieces while being careful not to own too many players who offer pure speed. In seasons with lower expected offensive stats, a one-dimensional speed hitter should have more value as a fantasy team can commit more roster slots to power hitters.
In the past, I’ve seen many fantasy managers land two to three elite power hitters while then taking a speed-only player. A power early plan can turn in the wrong direction if a drafter chases stolen bases, accepting multiple players' minimal home run total.
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
How to win
For this theory to win, a fantasy manager must establish an edge in power, speed, and starting pitching. The key to the plan is identifying the falling pieces in the draft that offer the skill set to execute your plan.
Once a drafter has some ideas about how he wants to backfill their roster, he can start looking at the starting pitching trade-offs to decide which rounds to build their pitching staff.
This drafting style will often overlap the PAPS strategy, so a fantasy manager must be careful that those teams don’t steal their key players.
A fantasy manager looking to execute this draft plan will be looking for proven players with longer resumes. When some drafters look for young players upside late, this plan squirrels away older veteran players. You may shake your head at the draft table, but this fantasy manager has a chance to win if many of his late veteran options produce expected stats.
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