Ronald Acuna, Walker Buehler Anchor This 2022 LABR NL-Only Auction Draft

Pre-draft strategy and how it unfolded shed light on what the experts are thinking.

Author:
Shawn Childs
Publish date:
Mar 9, 2022

My 12th chance to compete in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality was an online experience. The tempo of the NL auction was much quicker than the American League while having different pockets of opportunities. It’s time to reflect over the National League roster and give some insight on my decisions within the auction and the pre-game prep work.

Building a competitive team in the National League continues to be more challenging than the American League. The DH in the NL should have added 15 more bats of value, but the MLB lockout has left many players still unsigned. As a result, these nine batters were unavailable in the auction: 1B Freddie Freeman, SS Trevor Story, OF Nick Castellanos, OF Kris Bryant, SS Carlos Correa, OF Kyle Schwarber, OF Eddie Rosario, 1B Anthony Rizzo and DH Nelson Cruz. All other free agents were in play and expected to be rostered at a discount -- but receive no stats if they signed in the American League.

Before the start of the season and after most players sign, there will be a supplemental auction for the top 12 free agents that land in the NL. Each team will use its allotted $100 free agent budget to compete for these players.

Oct 16, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith (16) reacts as he runs down the first baseline on his three run homerun against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning in game five of the 2020 NLCS at Globe Life Field. — Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Foundation Game Plan

My rhythm for LABR prep was off due to losing a week of research to the 18th week of the NFL season. After putting together my initial auction cheat sheet, I came away with these ideas to build my offense:

I was committed to building my hitting team with two top catchers (Will Smith and Dalton Varsho). I need both options to be on the table early for my plan to work. I knew Smith would draw plenty of interest, and I hoped to get him on the mat before J.T. Realmuto was called out. Also, Doug Dennis of Baseball HQ tends to build a deep offense, allowing him to fight for the top end of the catching pool. I was hoping to get above his breakout point on both players.

I had a target for Alec Bohm at third base and Cody Bellinger in the outfield. I wanted to come out of the auction with a solid foundation in speed, and I thought briefly about buying one stud bat (ideally Fernando Tatis Jr.).

I liked multiple low-value offensive players (OF Dominic Smith, OF Victor Robles, OF Connor Joe, 3B Carter Kieboom, 1B Keston Hiura, 3B Colton Welker and 2B Luis Garcia). However, I knew I wouldn’t win these players in the end game as I expected many other teams to have extra buying power late in the auction. In addition, I wanted to call out DH Seth Beer early. My goal was to buy him at a low price while hoping other managers would avoid blocking their DH position with the hopes of purchasing a better player in the auction.

Many of the top arms looked intriguing on the pitching side, but no one in the mid-teens stood out. I expected to buy a pair of aces and see how the pricing went for the backend of the pitching inventory. Saves were again a secondary thought, but I would keep an open mind if someone I liked came at a discount and I didn’t get out of position in my spending.

Live Action

The first player called out by Derek Carty was SP Zack Wheeler, who he won for $26. After that, SS Fernando Tatis ($42) and Juan Soto ($40) went for top dollars by the fifth nomination. OF Bryce Harper ($39) landed on Lenny Melnick’s roster as the ninth player called out.

I threw C Will Smith on the mat with my first call out. After a slight battle, Greg Ambrosius and I had the first piece to our puzzle for $22. Howard Bender nominated Realmuto two players later, and Carty snatched him up for $23.

Atlanta Braves Ronald Acuna Jr. — Carmen Mandato/USA TODAY Sports

Midway in the second round of nominations OF Ronald Acuna landed in the center of the ring. His pricing stalled in the low 30s, and Ambrosius gave me the go signal to fight for him. Surprisingly, we won him for $35. Two other teams stated in the chat that they tried to bid $36 on him late, but the fantasy gods denied them. By rostering Acuna, it gave us a better player than expected in speed.

The top end of the starting pitching pool had fewer fights than expected. The Brewer fan in our contingent, Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus, pushed me to $31 for SP Corbin Burnes, but Gianella picked him up for $32.

On my second nomination, I tested the waters with C Dalton Varsho. I had him on my sheet for $19, which turned out to be our winning bid.

The early spending continued with the next player up for auction – SP Walker Buehler. Like Burnes, most teams weren’t willing to invest high dollars into their ace. We pressed the $31 button, and there was no other responding bid.

Over a four-player span, our team spent $85, leaving us $152 to fill the remaining 19 spots on our roster.

I tried to sneak DH Seth Beer through with our third call for short money. I was willing to pay $8, but there was nothing but crickets except a note in the chat that Beer was only a DH. In the end, the winning bid was $1! I expect him to get plenty of at-bats between first base and DH for the Diamondbacks in 2022.

With the final call in the third round, Julio Urias ($24) assumed the SP2 role for our team. Both of our lead arms pitch for a winning team in a pitcher's ballpark, but a massive jump in innings pitched from 2020 to 2021 may lead to an arm issue for either player.

We won the next four targeted players we called out – 2B Luis Garcia ($7), 3B Alec Bohm ($15), OF Victor Robles ($9) and OF Dominic Smith ($11) while also buying two more studs (SP Jack Flaherty – $19 and OF Cody Bellinger – $23).

After 12 players, we spent $216. Our timing on Robles couldn’t have been better as Derek Van Riper of The Athletic decided to take a bathroom break when someone nominated SP Logan Webb. Unfortunately for Van Riper, Robles was already in our back pocket when he returned, saving us from a more heated battle for him.

By the end of the 10th round, we had 16 players on our roster after adding 3B Carter Kieboom ($5), RP Camilo Doval ($8), SP Dakota Hudson ($3) and SP Trevor Bauer ($7). I called out a player I wanted, 1B Keston Hiura, but he landed on another team for $11.

With $21 left in spending to fill seven roster slots, we crossed off names for the next couple of hours. From pick 10.10 to 17.4, our only player added was SS Paul DeJong for $9.

I filled out the back end of the roster with SP Mike Soroka ($2), 1B Colin Moran ($1), SP Luke Weaver ($1), SP Nick Lodolo ($2), SS Bryson Stott ($5) and OF Lars Nootbaar ($1).

My biggest mistake in the end game came from losing OF Alek Thomas to Brian Walton of Creative Sports for $6. Walton had the most money remaining ($16) at this point in the auction. He needed a middle infielder, outfielder and DH. So I had to call out a player of interest to fill my roster, or I could have tried to buy a round by finding a player someone would bid $2.

I called out Thomas for $1 and pressed to $5, but Walton backhanded me with a closing $6 bid. If I called out Bryson Stott first, maybe I finesse Thomas. My issue was that I didn’t have 1B Juan Yepez on my cheat sheet even though I had him projected for some playing time. Walton writes about the Cardinals’ system, so I would have at least drawn a couple of dollars out of him if I called him out instead of Colin Moran earlier. When I nominated Stott, I had to beat Walton to $5 or risk not getting him.

Here’s a look at our full roster:

Outlook

On the surface, this team had a glaring hole at first base, but Cody Bellinger, Dominic Smith and Seth Beer should qualify early in the season. Once Beer unlocks his DH tag, I can shift Colton Welker into my starting lineup. I expect the Rockies to give him a chance to see many at-bats at 3B and DH this season.

Speed could be a problem if Robles doesn’t develop in the majors and seize a productive full-time job. Varsho, Bellinger and Bohm will chip in with some bags (my dream would be 35 stolen bases), but Acuna must steal over 30 bases to set a reasonable floor.

Runs and RBI rely on the development and playing time for Garcia, Dominic Smith and Kieboom. At best, my batting average is mid-pack.

The foundation of my pitching staff looks electric while also owning some exciting young arms. Saves need work, but I should easily transition a starter for a closer at some point in the season.

I don’t know what to make of Bauer, but he looked to be too good of a deal at 25% of his expected value if he didn’t run off the tracks last season. I do expect him to be cleared for opening day.

Final Thoughts

I’m excited to see how this team performs. Without a doubt, the pitching side is our strength. However, the hitting targets should be much higher, with more batters expected to sign after the lockout. To win the NL title, I need to find more saves and keep an eye on batting average and steals. At some point, a trade for more offense will be a must.

Here are the full auction results from Sunday night’s auction draft.

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