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Fantasy Projections: Christian Kirk Unlikely to Play Up to His Big Contract

Jaguars gave Kirk a huge free-agent deal, but his stats might not justify that money.

Jacksonville paid Kirk a ton of money ($84 million for four seasons), considering he has never been a top-24 wideout in any of his four years in the NFL. Last year, he set a career-high in catches (77) and receiving yards (982) while averaging only 6.1 targets per game. His catch rate (74.8%) was well above his first three seasons (62.4).

Over the first 13 games, Kirk scored 15.0 fantasy points in PPR leagues in five matchups (5/70/2, 7/104, 5/75/1, 4/50/1, 6/91), but the Cardinals only looked his way 70 times (5.4 per game). His opportunity was much higher over his final five contests (12, 9, 9, 3, 11 targets), leading to 30 catches for 315 yards and one score.

He has 37 catches of 20 yards or more in his career, with 10 of those plays gaining a minimum of 40 yards. Kirk scored 17 touchdowns over 56 games.

Fantasy outlook: I don’t see Kirk repeating his catch rate in 2021 after Trevor Lawrence struggled with his accuracy in his rookie season. In addition, Kirk would be hard-pressed to push his targets much higher based on the Jaguars’ overall receiving depth. My assumptions are supported by the opinions of high-stakes drafters (ADP – 112 as the 46th wideout) in the NFFC in the early draft season. With four catches a week (68), Kirk should gain about 800 yards with a max of five touchdowns.

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