Amon-Ra St. Brown 2022 Fantasy Projections: Excellent Value
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My two most critical takes about Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021 were his ability to get open and catch the ball. His role in the Lions’ offense was minimal in most of his first 11 games (39/352 on 52 targets). Detroit shifted the bulk of their passing attack to the rookie over the last six games (10/86/1, 8/73, 8/90/1, 9/91/1, 8/111/1, 8/109/1) while receiving double-digit targets (67 total) in each contest. He finished with an impressive catch rate (75.6).
St. Brown brings early rhythm to his route running that projects better out of the slot. His release is better than expected, but he does lose value when locked up early by bigger physical defenders. St. Brown doesn’t win with his quickness and has subpar long speed. With better technique and more strength, he would offer much more upside.
He played well over 30 games at USC, catching 178 of his 249 targets for 2,270 yards and 17 touchdowns. His best success came in 2019 (77/1,042/6).
Fantasy outlook: With 150 targets, St. Brown would be on a path to catch 110 passes for 1,100 yards and about seven scores. He finished 22nd in wide receiver scoring (227.3 fantasy points) last season. Despite his impactful run late in the year, his ADP (57) in the NFFC ranked him as the 21st wideout. My projections will rank him as a top 12 wide receiver, and I consider him almost the same player as Keenan Allen while getting drafted two rounds later. St. Brown is an excellent value selection in 2022.
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