Tight End ADP Report: Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet Poised For Breakouts
To stay in the same lane with the quarterback ADPs, I continue to use the ADPs from RTSports for the tight end position. Again, each fantasy league has different draft flows based on scoring, league size, and participants. The goal of reviewing data from previous drafts is to understand how other people view the player pool within a real, paid draft environment. At the same time, ADPs help understand which players are rising and falling.
ADP Reports: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End
Tight ends are one of the most unique positions in fantasy football. In a high-stakes league or contest, rostering an elite option can be a separator over the long haul of the season, but they need to produce in the most significant weeks of the year to deliver a big payoff.
Many drafters will cheat tight end while looking to gain an edge at running back and wide receiver. If they wait too long or whiff at the draft table, their roster could have a weak link for most of the season.
Ideally, team building requires seeing the drop-offs at each position to help the overall length of their lineup.
Two Pillars
Travis Kelce remains the go-to guy for fantasy drafters looking to start their team with an edge at tight end. He brings name value and a massive opportunity with one of the best quarterbacks in the game. At some point, father time will catch up to him, and the loss of Tyreek Hill in the Chiefs’ offense does change how he will be defended. When on the clock in the second round of 12-team leagues, the coin toss is whether Kelce is worthy of offering WR1 production.
Last year Mark Andrews was the best tight end in the land, and he helped win many fantasy championships with his stellar play from Week 14 to Week 18 (43/550/4). His late success came from the Ravens chasing in more games than expected late in the season after losing Lamar Jackson early in Week 14. Andrews is the top receiving option in Baltimore, but their team is at their best when controlling the clock with the run game. In some early drafts, Andrews came off the board as the top tight end. That hasn’t happened as much over the past month.
The Next Big Thing
The consensus third-ranked tight end in 2022 is Kyle Pitts. He played well in his rookie season (68/1,026/1 on 110) despite weakness in scoring and some work needed in his catch rate (61.8). Pitts made plenty of big plays (15.1 yards per catch). His scoring should improve in his sophomore season, and the Falcons will get him the ball early and often. With a fourth-round ADP (38.4), Pitts is a much easier buy in fantasy drafts.
Third Tier
Darren Waller regressed last year due to six missed games. He set a high bar in 2019 (90/1,145/3) and 2020 (107/1,196/9) as the Raiders’ top receiving option. With Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow in the mix for many targets, Waller slides into a lesser role in the passing game. On the positive side, he will face weaker coverage with a chance at more opportunities to score.
George Kittle gets a couple of knocks for me, with both tied to the 49ers' new quarterback. This season, San Francisco should run the ball more, thus lowering their pass attempts. At the same time, the secondary receiving options are much better. I like him, but his ceiling doesn't look as high as 2018 (88/1,377/5) and 2019 (85/1,053/5) unless Deebo Samuel has an injury. In addition, Kittle missed 13 games over the past three years.
State Your Case
The development of Dalton Schultz over the past two seasons puts him in the back-end top 10 tight end conversation in 2022. Dallas comes into this year with some questions at WR2 and WR3, pointing to Schultz being active again in the Cowboys’ offense. He has a steady feel with possibly a higher ceiling than meets the eye.
The six-game suspension of DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a win early in the season for either Zach Ertz or Marquise Brown. Ertz played well after his trade to the Cardinals (56/574/3) midseason in 2021. His career resume parallels Travis Kelce while being a year younger. He falls in a cheat tight end area in drafts with the career resume to outperform expectations.
T.J. Hockenson was on track for a career year in 2021 (61/583/4 over 12 games), but he missed the final five weeks with a left thumb injury. His missed time led to Amon-Ra St. Brown turning into a beast late in the year, and he will be more active in 2022. Hockenson should have a chance to catch 80+ balls with mid-level touchdowns.
The Eagles improved their receiving options in the offseason by acquiring A.J. Brown. Unfortunately, a three-way split in the receiving pie may damper the expectation for Dallas Goedert this season. Philly only looked his way 5.1 times a game in 2021, but he still finished 8th in fantasy points (165.00) for tight ends in PPR formats. With a bump to six chances per game, Goedert would increase his floor by at least 10%.
On the Rise
Cole Kmet landed on my breakout team based on him potentially earning the second most targets in the Bears’ offense.
Hunter Henry came out surprisingly high on the first run-through of the NFL projections. His edge in his first year in New England came in touchdowns (9). Despite a high catch rate (66.7), the Patriots only gave him 4.4 targets per game. In 2022, Mac Jones should have more freedom to throw the ball, leading to a bump in chances for Henry. Based on his ADP (138.2), I expect him to outperform his price point in a big way.
With a TE2 ADP (150.5), Noah Fant landed on my 2022 sleeper team. His floor has been reasonable with the Broncos over the past two seasons (62/673/3 and 68/670/4). The change to Seattle won’t lower his expected output while playing with the same quarterback as 2021. I like to have two viable tight ends, so Fant should be on many of my teams this year.
To get a feel for Evan Engram’s potential this season, take a peek at his profile in my comeback player article.
Cameron Brate had a deep sleeper price tag in some fantasy formats, but the Buccaneers signed Kyle Rudolph last week. The added depth helps Tom Brady, but it puts his tight ends closer to a 50/50 split in targets.
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