Wide Receiver ADP Report: Mike Williams, Marquise Brown Deserve More Love
To stay in the same lane with the quarterback and running back ADP reports, I continue to use the ADPs from RTSports for the wide receiver position. Again, each fantasy league has different draft flows based on scoring, league size, and participants. The goal of reviewing data from previous drafts is to understand how other people view the player pool within a real, paid draft environment. At the same time, ADPs help understand which players are rising and falling.
ADP Reports: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End
Splitting Aces
Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp are in a dead heat in draft value based on their ADP (5.3) in the middle of July.
Kupp dominated most weeks in 2021, leading to the best receiving season (145/1,947/16 plus 25/386/4 in the postseason) in NFL history. Unfortunately, players rarely repeat after career seasons. One only has to look at Stefan Diggs last year (103/1,225/10 – 127/1,535/8 in 2020) and Michael Thomas in 2020 (40/438/0 – 149/1,725/9 in 2019). There is no doubt Kupp will be active again, but will a downgrade at left tackle lead to weaker production for the Rams’ passing game?
The high-tracking Jefferson busted onto the NFL with back-to-back impressive seasons (88/1,400/7 and 108/1,616/10). His opportunity is elite while offering an excellent combination of big play and scoring ability. Despite his profile, Ja’Marr Chase has another gear in his game while only needing to improve his chances over the short areas of the field. Based on his ceiling and potential for impact games, I have him projected as the top receiver in 2022.
All three wideouts should give fantasy teams an edge piece to their team, but their final stats won’t match offseason expectations.
Second Tier
A case can be made for or possibly against Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, and CeeDee Lamb. Ultimately, each fantasy drafter will either settle for the best available option or stick their neck out by moving a player up.
The change to the Raiders’ offense should lead to a 100-catch floor for Adams, but Derek Carr can’t match Aaron Rodgers delivering passing touchdowns in the red zone.
Last year Diggs was on my fade list as I didn’t expect him to repeat his great stats. In 2022, his ADP (14.4) in the second round looks to be a better buying opportunity. The Bills throw to their wideouts at a high rate, pointing to Diggs regaining some lost value this year.
Samuel fits a player coming off a career season. At the same time, his opportunity in the run game is a massive edge, and he looks like the part of an impact player. The 49ers now have a running quarterback, inviting fewer pass attempts with questions about his passing ability. The last huddle for Samuel is getting paid by San Fran and laying down his request to be traded.
The natural progression for Lamb is a six-catch-a-game receiver with a spike expected in receiving yards and scoring. He tends to fall in a coin flip with Samuel as the sixth-ranked wide receiver in 2022.
Tyreek Hill has the talent and resume to rank higher at wide receiver, but he needs Miami and their young quarterback to improve dramatically in the passing game. At the very least, Hill will be challenging to cover with the open field ability to turn a short pass into a long score.
Over-Projected Wide Receiver
I listed A.J. Brown on my fade/bust list. He has an impressive skill set, but the Eagles have a run-first offense, inviting fewer passes and a bump path in his production from week to week. In addition, Brown will compete with two other viable receivers for targets.
On the Verge of Stardom
Tee Higgins is on the doorstep of becoming an elite wide receiver. He plays opposite one of the best wideouts in the game, which ensures weaker coverage on many players. Higgins has the scoring ability to produce double-digit touchdowns, with a bump expected in targets. It should be relatively easy to pair Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow with Higgins, creating a high floor and impactful ceiling.
The second group of wide receivers has a wide range of outcomes. When evaluating these players, the first look should be who is throwing them the ball. Do you trust Mitchell Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Davis Mills, or Justin Fields to deliver impactful passing stats? If not, half of the WR2 board could be dismissed or discounted.
Bookend Studs
Michael Pittman sits in a favorable spot in the wide receiver rankings (13th) based on his ADP (37.5). Matt Ryan has a long history of delivering impact WR1s for the Falcons. His next step is over 100 catches with a run at double-digit scores. Pittman will be a clear edge for a team developing three wideouts to start their team.
Over the final six games last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown was one of the better receivers in the game. Despite his success over this span (51/560/5), he ranks as the 24th wideout drafted. St. Brown gets open and catches a high percentage of balls thrown his way, and I expect him to continue his winning path in 2022.
Best Two Wideouts Based on their Quarterback
Under the guidance of Justin Herbert, Mike Williams had the best opportunity (129 targets) and season of his career (76/1,146/9). He gained an impressive 16.5 yards per catch over the past four seasons. His combination of catches, yards, and touchdowns paired with a stud quarterback invites more follow-through this year.
Marquise Brown pushed his game to a higher level in 2022 (91/1,008/6 on 146 targets), setting the stage for an exciting career in his new home in Arizona. His previous experience with Kyler Murray bodes well for repeated success this year.
High Floor in Catches
Diontae Johnson made the best of his opportunity in 2021 in his third year with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a new quarterback this season, pointing to fewer passing attempts and a step-back in chances for Johnson. As a result, I have him on my fade/bust list.
The next step for DJ Moore is pushing over 100 catches. Adding Baker Mayfield isn't a lock to help, but it can’t hurt either. His success last year was driven by targets (163), not catch rate (57.1), so his progression isn’t a lock in 2022.
Jaylen Waddle played better than expected in his rookie season, and his game has another gear in explosiveness. The addition of Tyreek Hill puts him into the WR2 for the Dolphins while helping Miami move the ball better.
Gabriel Davis landed on my breakout team due to his expected role as the Bills’ WR2. Elijah Moore ranked 16th in my initial rankings, a mere 19 spots higher than his ADP (90.4). He fell into my sleeper category after researching all 32 teams.
Jerry Jeudy lost draft momentum late spring after an off-the-field issue. However, all charges were dropped on May 31st, putting him on a path to start in Week 1. Russell Wilson will get the most out of Jeudy this year, and his ADP (81.7) is almost 30 spots lower than Courtland Sutton. In 2020. Wilson helped two wideouts finish in the top 10 in fantasy scoring in PPR formats.
New Home, New Dream
The escape from Pittsburgh has to be a win for Juju Smith-Schuster. He now has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, with vacated WR1 opportunity in the Chiefs’ offense. With positive reports in training camp and any spark in the preseason, his draft value should push to WR2 status in PPR formats.
Allen Robinson slips into an excellent opportunity with the Rams, but his targets aren’t a lock to be impactful. His overall skill set projects well, and his presence will take some pressure off Matthew Stafford when locking in Cooper Kupp. He has three excellent seasons on his resume (80/1,400/14, 98/1,147/7, and 102/1,250/6) while spending his early career with a bottom-tier offense.
Healthy or Not
Chris Godwin may be ready for Week 1, but his status won’t be known until late August. With each missed game, he has less chance of fulfilling his expected fantasy value. At the very least, Godwin should be limited early in the season.
The Saints hope Michael Thomas is ready for opening day. Unfortunately, they placed him on the PUP list before the start of training camp, which doesn’t paint a rising picture for his ADP. Thomas has been out a long time and isn’t a lock to regain all of his previous skills in route running. For now, he is only a follow until he shows something on the field.
Adding Davante Adams to the Raiders’ offense does lower the expected chances for Hunter Renfrow. His ability to work the short areas of the field allows him to be the Wes Welker or Julian Edelman in Josh McDaniels’ offense.
With an ADP of 116 as a backend WR4, Chase Claypool is overlooked by the fantasy world due to the downgrade at quarterback in Pittsburgh. He has breakout upside with the size (6’4” and 235 lbs.) to regain his rookie season value in scoring (nine scores).
DeVonta Smith played well in his rookie season but slipped to WR2 status for the Eagles after they brought on A.J. Brown. His lower ADP (96.7) makes him more attractive despite a similar role in his second year with Philly.
Rookie Fliers
The structure of the Falcons’ offense gives London Drake a chance to hit the ground running in his rookie season. Atlanta won’t create many scoring chances, so I would temper my fight for him.
Treylon Burks lands in an excellent spot if he is ready to handle starting snaps for the Titans. I listed him as a sleeper in research for the upcoming season.
For Chris Olave to reach a starting wide receiver status, Michael Thomas must fall short of his expectation in his recovery from his ankle injury. In addition, the Saints need to throw the ball at a higher rate to support their improved depth at wide receiver.
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