Best and Worst Fantasy Playoff Schedules: Joe Burrow and Derek Carr Have It Tough
In Weeks 15 to 17, we need to know who has the best and worst fantasy playoff schedules. The matchups are on paper for now, but we can already begin to think ahead to the fantasy postseason. Just because a player has a good or bad fantasy playoff schedule, that doesn't mean we need to make any rash decisions. We're just planning ahead!
Throughout each football season, there are peaks and valleys for each team. A franchise that shines over the first half of the year could very well limp home down the stretch due to injuries or regression in play.
At the same time, other teams will jell, leading to an uptick in wins, offense, or defensive results. The challenge in the fantasy market is figuring out if there are some favorable matchups to exploit late in the season when league championships are won.
Best Fantasy Playoff Schedules
New York Jets
As the start of the season approaches for the Jets, Joe Flacco lines up open the year as their quarterback. New York hopes Zach Wilson misses minimal games while developing into an upper-tier passer. The structure of their receiving corps offers sneaky upside, and Breece Hall looks poised to be a stud runner. The Jets face Detroit and Jacksonville at home in Week 15 and 16 before traveling to Seattle in Week 17. All three defenses have ranked poorly (21st, 26th, and 27th) in fantasy points allowed in PPR formats in 2021. The Lions and Jaguars should be much better offensively this season, hopefully leading to some high-scoring games for New York. In addition, the Jets allowed the most combined fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Possible targets: Breece Hall, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson
Denver Broncos
Over the early draft season, the only Broncos offensive player I’ve drafted is Javonte Williams. Russell Wilson is a win for the passing game, leading to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy coming off the board higher than their previous resume supports. Even so, Denver has two possible shootouts (ARI and @KC) from Week 15 to Week 17 while having a coinflip match against the Rams in Los Angeles. Wilson has plenty of experience vs. the Rams, and this matchup may end up being better than expected.
Possible targets: Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Albert Okwuegbunam
Kansas City Chiefs
Entering this season, the Chiefs have questions at running back and wide receiver, creating a possible buying opportunity in drafts due to their unknown roles and potential ceiling. Kansas City plays at Houston in Week 15 while drawing two excellent matchups in Week 16 (SEA) and Week 17 (DEN) at home. The Texans’ defense may surprise, while the Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball against the Seahawks and Broncos. In addition, their contest vs. Denver should be higher scoring.
Possible targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco (wild card), Juju Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Travis Kelce
Toughest Fantasy Playoff Schedules
Cincinnati Bengals
I’m a big fan of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in 2022. On paper, based on last season, their schedule isn’t ideal late in the season. They face Tampa Bay and New England on the road in Week 15 and 16, then take on Buffalo at home in their next matchup. The Bills and Patriots finished first and second in the lowest number of fantasy points allowed in 2021. The Buccaneers ranked 14th due to more risk defending wide receivers and tight ends. I certainly wouldn’t avoid Bengals’ offensive players on draft day as I expect them to rank highly in fantasy scoring this year, but their schedule suggests that their players won’t be the best in the league when championships are on the line.
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Possible fades: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Las Vegas Raiders
Part of the downside of the Raiders’ schedule from Week 15 to Week 17 is that they face three offenses (NE, @PIT, and SF) that want to run the ball. A faster-moving clock tends to lead to fewer plays and less scoring. Pittsburgh slipped to 12th in fantasy points allowed to offenses due to unexpected weaker play defending the run. They should rank higher defensively in 2022. The 49ers (10th) will get after the quarterback but can be beaten at the cornerback position. I see regression in New England’s defensive play, but I still have to respect their coaching staff and final ranking (second) in 2021.
Possible fades: Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller
Miami Dolphins
I’m excited to see the development of Tua Tagovailoa this season, thanks to an improved offensive line and the addition of Tyreek Hill. Miami has strength at four receiving positions, and Cedrick Wilson adds upside at WR3. Unfortunately, the NFL schedule makers have the Dolphins playing in cold weather in Week 15 (@BUF) and Week 17 (@NE), inviting questionable upside in their passing attacks in December. Their home matchup vs. the Packers in Week 16 looks neutral, but Green Bay does have one elite cornerback (Jaire Alexander). Miami’s offensive players should be a fun ride this year while leaving their supporters short of a league championship based on their late-season matchups.
Possible fades: Tua Tagovailoa, Chase Edmonds, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki
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