2025 NFL Schedule Release Will Be Mostly Useless In Fantasy Football Drafts

Michael Fabiano | May 15, 2025

Kyler Murray is projected to have the easiest strength of schedule among fantasy quarterbacks in 2025. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The NFL’s 2025 schedule was released on Wednesday night, so we have the final piece of the offseason puzzle in place. We already knew each team’s opponents, but now that we know the weeks and days the games will take place.

Seems important in fantasy, right? Well yes, to a degree … but mostly, no.

For years, I've written articles that focus on a fantasy strength of schedule that would give fantasy managers a look at which players had the best and worst slates based on the PPR fantasy points allowed (FPA) per position from the previous season. Much like the league’s actual strength of schedule based on 2024 records, it’s fun to look at but often not useful.

That’s because in recent years I’ve noticed a trend: the gap between players with the best and the worst schedules, regardless of the position, was shrinking, and this season is no different. What’s more, the information that we’re using for this research is often flawed.

Based on the FPA data from last season, the quarterback with the best schedule for this season is Kyler Murray. He has an accumulated FPA average of 19.6 (based on the 2024 defensive stats for his upcoming 20245 opponents). However, the difference between Murray’s FPA and the quarterback in the middle (16th), Bo Nix, is just 0.8 fantasy points!

On the flip side, Dak Prescott, the quarterback who has the worst projected strength of schedule, comes in at 17.8. That’s a difference of just 1.8 points from the easiest schedule (Murray) and just a 0.9-point difference from the schedule in the middle, Nix (18.8).

The gap between the best and the worst fantasy schedule at running back is a bit wider, at 2.7 points. But the back with the “worst” schedule, Derrick Henry, isn’t going to be affected by it. Neither will Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery, who have the fourth-toughest slate.

At wide receiver, the difference between the most and least attractive schedules is 2.1. What’s more, two of the three toughest schedules will be played by Brian Thomas Jr. and CeeDee Lamb. Anyone dropping these two superstars in their rankings as a result?

Nope, me neither.

At tight end, the gap between No. 1 (Mark Andrews, 13.9) and No. 32 (Theo Johnson, 11.9) is 1.9. Once again, the difference between the best schedule and the middle (Mike Gesicki, 13) is just eight-tenths of a point. That’s a difference slimmer than a piece of paper!

As you can see, the difference in these positions is mostly negligible, and not enough (in most cases) to draft one player confidently over another. Even at running back, which has the “biggest” gap, how much does it really matter that James Conner (24.7) has a better projected strength of schedule than Henry (22.4), Gibbs (22.4) or James Cook (22.6)?  

It doesn’t.

To further prove that strength of schedule stats are deceptive, the data we use from the previous season often doesn’t mirror what will happen in the next season. That’s because the NFL is unpredictable, as the offseason creates a series of improvements or downgrades on the defensive side of the football and, therefore, defensive effectiveness.

Let me give you a few examples.

In 2023, the Dallas Cowboys allowed an average of just 14.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That was the seventh-fewest in the league, making a matchup against them in 2024 unfavorable. So much for that! The Cowboys' defense went on to give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season at nearly 21 per game.

The difference in points allowed was almost seven!

Of course, this had a lot to do with the fact that the Cowboys faced a first-place slate and dealt with injuries to several of their top stars, including pass rusher Micah Parsons. Still, despite being very formidable against quarterbacks in 2023, that data was worthless.

If we look at the FPA data from 2023 and compare it to last season, we find that 12 of 32 teams saw a change of at least 2.5 points allowed per game against quarterbacks, for better or worse. The Kansas City Chiefs, who allowed almost 21 points per game to quarterbacks in 2023, allowed just 14.5 a season ago. So, if you used strength of schedule data in these cases (and many others), that data was incorrect and led you down the wrong draft path.

This sort of thing isn’t limited to quarterbacks, either.

At running back, 20 teams saw a flip of at least 2.5 points allowed per game from 2023 to 2024. That’s more than 62 percent of the entire league! The San Francisco 49ers, who were considered a bad matchup for runners heading into last year, surrendered 7.2 more points per game to the position than they did the previous year. The Denver Broncos, who allowed 26.7 points per game in 2023, gave up just 21.1 points per game in 2024.

The change at wide receiver was similar to running back, as 20 teams saw a change of at least 2.5 fantasy points from one season to the next. The biggest change occurred with the Eagles, who allowed 44.6 points per game to wide receivers in 2023. That was the most in the NFL and made the Eagles a plus matchup on paper last season. So much for that. Philadelphia allowed just 31 points per game to receivers, an improvement of almost 14 points!

At tight end, we saw 12 defenses flip at least two points allowed per game. The Broncos went from allowing 15.7 points per game to tight ends in 2023 to just 11.9 last season (-3.8). On the flip side, the Carolina Panthers gave up 9.5 points per game to the position in 2023. Last season, that total increased to 14.9, a difference of more than five per game.

So, you might ask, how can the schedule help fantasy managers?

Obviously, we need to know the bye weeks. That’s very important so as not to draft too many players who are off in the same week. You also might want to avoid some players with late-season byes, as you could be unable to use a star player when you’ll need him the most … during a potential push to the fantasy playoffs. We’ve seen that issue over the last two years.

Fantasy football managers should also look at game locations, because playing in a dome or retractable roof stadium late in the season as opposed to a cold-weather venue is an advantage (at least it can be on the surface, because predicting the weather months in advance is a lot tougher than predicting the results of a fantasy football campaign!).

In terms of the stats that will affect the strength of schedule, that data isn’t going to be available until we get a handle on which defenses are good or bad against each of the four main offensive skill positions. We’ll probably have a decent idea after the first month of the season, but really, it’ll take half a year of data to have a definitive fantasy baseline.

So, when you’re doing your in-depth draft preparations this summer, feel free to look at strength of schedule data if you’re trying to pick between two players with similar value. But just be aware, the numbers and statistics you’re using to make that determination could be (and more likely will be) less than 100% accurate when we look back in 2025.