Fantasy Football Strength Of Schedule: Derrick Henry Has Tough Matchups Among Running Backs

Michael Fabiano | May 13, 2025

Ravens RB Derrick Henry ranked fourth in fantasy points among running backs last season. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The National Football League has a strength of schedule formula that's easy to understand ... take the opponents' records from the previous season, add up the wins and losses and calculate a percentage for all its upcoming opponents.

In the world of fantasy football, we use a similar method. Instead of using team records, we use the number of fantasy points allowed (FPA) by a defense the previous season against a single offensive skill position.

For example, the Carolina Panthers allowed an average of 30.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last season. So, any RB to face the Panthers in the upcoming campaign are “rewarded” 30.3 points. The more points a running back has compiled based on their upcoming opponents, divisional and otherwise, the easier the projected schedule.

As you can see from the list below, the difference between the easiest schedule and the most difficult isn’t significant. In fact, I’ve said myself that strength of schedule analysis can be heavily flawed because one season can be vastly different than the next. A great example of this is the San Francisco 49ers. After allowing an average of just 18.4 fantasy points per game to running backs in 2023, their defense allowed nearly 26 per game in 2024.

So, a Niners defense that was seen as a difficult matchup for running backs in terms of their 2024 strength of schedule projections was ultimately incorrect when used as a draft tool.

While flawed, this data is at the very least fun to look at from an informational standpoint. It can also be a useful tool in making decisions between non-elite players with similar value. James Conner and David Montgomery, for example, will be listed closely on RB rank lists, but Conner gets the edge in value since his schedule is easier between the two.

Note: Players listed are the projected best fantasy players on each NFL team.

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2025 Running Back Fantasy Football Strength Of Schedule

RK	Player	Team
1	Bijan Robinson	ATL
2	Alvin Kamara	NO
3	Christian McCaffrey	SF
4	Kenneth Walker III	SEA
5	James Conner	ARI
6	Bucky Irving	TB
7	Breece Hall	NYJ
8	Kyren Williams	LAR
9	Chuba Hubbard	CAR
10	De'Von Achane	MIA
11	TreVeyon Henderson	NE
12	Joe Mixon	HOU
13	Trais Etienne Jr.	JAC
14	Tony Pollard	TEN
15	Quinshon Judkins	CLE
16	Josh Jacobs	GB
17	Jonathan Taylor	IND
18	Saquon Barkley	PHI
19	Chase Brown	CIN
20	Javonte Williams	DAL
21	Isiah Pacheco	KC
22	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG
23	Kaleb Johnson	PIT
24	James Cook	BUF
25	Ashton Jeanty	LV
26	D'Andre Swift	CHI
27	Omarion Hampton	LAC
28	Aaron Jones Sr.	MIN
29	Derrick Henry	BAL
30	RJ Harvey	DEN
31	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET
32	Brian Robinson Jr.	WAS