College Football Week 11 Betting Picks: What Sides Are Sharps on?

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The sharps still failed to get the best of the sportsbooks last week, going 2-2 ATS in college football betting. In Week 11, they will look to get back to their winning ways. Here are three games they are backing strong at the counters here in Vegas on Saturday…


161 Baylor -2.5 @ 162 TCU (48)

Baylor (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS); TCU (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Baylor should be highly motivated to get a signature win as it is currently ranked No. 12 in the CFP standings behind a pair of two-loss SEC schools (Florida and Auburn) as well as four one-loss teams (Georgia, Oregon, Utah and Oklahoma). Baylor will also have revenge on its mind as the last team to beat the Bears was TCU last season by a score of 16-9. The sharps see a big advantage on the sidelines with one of the most underrated coaches in the nation in Baylor’s Matt Rhule. TCU’s starting quarterback Max Duggan is banged up and that could spell disaster for a Horned Frogs offense going up against a Bears defense that just held West Virginia to 219 total yards of offense. Lay the short number with confidence.

  • Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games
  • TCU is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games
  • TCU is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 conference games
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings between these two schools
  • The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
  • Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 meetings at Amon G. Carter Stadium
  • Baylor is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 meetings with TCU

THE PLAY: Baylor -2.5

168 LSU +6 @ 169 Alabama (63)

LSU (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS); Alabama (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This is easily the game of the year in College Football. All you hear walking around sportsbooks here in Vegas, as well as every media outlet that has a platform, is that LSU is going to win. Saturday’s SEC monster showdown between No. 2 LSU and No. 3 Alabama is a clear “Pros versus Joes” contest as nearly 70% of public money is on the Tigers. Sports bettors are never given the opportunity to back Nick Saban as an underdog, so the next best betting angle is when books offer the Crimson Tide at less than a touchdown favorite. The biggest question mark heading into the game is the health of Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, who is nursing a high ankle sprain suffered three weeks ago against Tennessee. With all the hype surrounding LSU and the outstanding play of QB Joe Burrow, combined with Tua being less than a 100%, this has all arrows pointing in the Tigers’ direction. However, Saban has owned LSU in the last six games ATS and his teams are cashing at an outstanding 78% ATS clip coming off the bye. The sharps are laying the -6 in this one, but my advice is to keep an eye on in-play wagering menus where you may get some juicy numbers to get down on.

  • LSU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall
  • Alabama is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games following a bye week under Nick Saban
  • The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these SEC foes
  • The favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings these bitter SEC rivals
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings between these schools
  • LSU is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings at Bryant-Denny Stadium
  • LSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Alabama

THE PLAY: 169 Alabama -6

141 Penn State -6 @ 142 Minnesota (47.5)

Penn State (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS); Minnesota (8-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The “other” top game on the Saturday betting card features No. 4 Penn State against No. 17 Minnesota. Penn State moved up to No. 4 in the CFP rankings this week and as of now would be the final team in the College Football Playoff if the season ended today. This game also represents a contest where bettors are running to the counters to back the undefeated team getting the points. Even though both teams have won their first eight games, the sharps agree with the oddsmakers that the Nittany Lions are clearly the stronger team. With inclement weather in the forecast, expect Penn State’s second-ranked scoring defense, which is allowing just 9.6 points per game, to be the difference in this one.

  • Nittany Lions are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
  • Nittany Lions are 29-13-2 ATS in their last 44 games overall.
  • Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • The favorite is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Nittany Lions are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • The home team is 3-1-2 ATS in its last 6 meetings.

THE PLAY: 141 Penn State -6

Season Record: 5-12