Workday Charity Open Predictions & Best Bets

The SI Gambling Team goes through their top bets, values, and longshots for the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Plus, SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo dives in on the sharp action from both Vegas & England.
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With four events in the books since the COVID-19 shutdown, the PGA heads to Dublin, Ohio for the Workday Charity Open. When the coronavirus pandemic forced the shutdown of the sports world, the PGA made the decision to scrap the John Deere and instead host back-to-back tournaments at Muirfield Village Golf in consecutive weeks. This week’s Workday Charity Open will replace the John Deere, with the Memorial to be hosted next week on the same course.

In addition, the PGA, which was planning to make the Memorial (July 14-19) the first tournament of the adjusted schedule to have fans in stands, has amended those intentions it was announced in a statement earlier this week.

“We applaud the leadership, diligence and partnership it took from Jack Nicklaus, Dan Sullivan, the entire Memorial Tournament staff and State, County and City leadership to build a solid plan that would allow for limited fan attendance at next week’s event,” said PGA TOUR Commissioner Jay Monahan.

“But given the broader challenges communities are facing due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we need to stay focused on the No. 1 priority for our return to golf — the health and safety of all involved. While this was a difficult decision, it was one made collectively, and we are appreciative of the process undertaken to this point that will allow us to welcome on-site fans when the time is right. In the meantime, we have no doubt that the Memorial Tournament will once again be an incredible championship and deliver the best competitive environment for our players and utmost entertainment to our fans around the world.”

Bryson DeChambeau, who won the Memorial back in 2018 and fresh off his win last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, will take his first time off since the PGA Tour made its return. Patrick Cantlay, who won last year's Memorial Tournament, will be among a strong contingent of players ranked in the 2020 FedEx Cup standings teeing off.

Workday Charity Open Details:

Dates: July 9–12, 2020

Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club, Dublin, Ohio

TV: GOLF Channel; CBS

Purse: $6,200,000

As highlighted earlier this week, the field at the Workday Charity Open will have three of the top six players in the World Golf Rankings this week.

Justin Thomas (+1045) sits atop the Circa Sports betting board as the favorite following seven top 10 finishes this season. Following Thomas are Jon Rahm (+1295), Brooks Koepka (+1650), Patrick Cantlay (+1650), Hideki Matsuyama (+1900) and Xander Schauffele (+2200).

Our team of gambling experts has compiled their approach to the Workday Charity Open from a betting perspective. In addition, we've also highlighted the sharp wagering information from both Vegas and London, England.

Let’s take a look at the odds as well as the team’s best bets and more!

Odds via Circa Sports, Las Vegas

Workday Charity Open Predictions and Best Bets

Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Workday Charity Open Sharp Action Breakdown:

Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located in London, England has been on fire with sharp picks since the PGA return. At the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, they just missed out on the winner as Colin Morikawa (40/1) fell to Daniel Berger (80/1) in a sudden-death playoff. They followed up by a superb value play of Tyrell Hatton (56/1) who finished T3 in the RBC Heritage, coupled with a roll-back on Hatton (18/1) who turned in a solid T4 finish last week in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, the Workday Charity Open will offer a different set of challenges that caters to strong iron play this week:

“Muirfield Muirfield Village Golf Club, which is 7397 yards, is about 15th in length on the PGA tour -- making it a true 2nd shot golf course with premium on great iron play. We’re back to Bentgrass/Poa annua fairways and greens --the latter certainly favors putters that like to die the ball in the hole. No grain like Bermuda. It’s for sure a second-shot golf course.”

There are three players the UK sharps have their sights set on this week in Ohio.

“Our model really likes Hideki Matsuyama, who has a solid track record here. He's very streaky when he gets into form. We saw several flashes of brilliance last week from the Japanese star, and our numbers predict that trend will carry into this week--thus making +1900 solid value. 

Viktor Hovland (+3000) is a star in the making, and despite some concerns that he's ‘played a little too much lately’ -- and been driving his car around the country for thousands of miles, we still like him to do well this week. Finally, for the quality golfer Joel Dahmen has turned into, now in his early 30s, we can't pass on +9300, and he is our clear longshot play of the tournament.”

In addition, Banham highlighted three 72-hole matchup plays that are worthy of garnering attention from sports bettors: Max Homa (-140) over Lanto Griffin, Matthew Fitzpatrick (-115) over Adam Hadwin and Marc Leishman (+108) over Gary Woodland. 

Metric Gaming’s Player to Win: Hideki Matsuyama (19/1)

Matsuyama checks in at No. 23 in World Rankings, and is fresh off a T21 performance last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has four top 10 finishes this season and is primed for a big week according to the sharps from across the pond.

Metric Gaming’s Sharp Value Play: Viktor Hovland (30/1)

Hovland ranks No. 42 in the world and offers tremendous value; especially if he is able to stay in the same form we have witnessed since the PGA restart with four consecutive top 23 finishes. Metric Gaming sees tremendous value in a golfer who has two straight top 12 finishes overall.

Metric Gaming’s Longshot Play: Joel Dahmen (93/1)

Dahmen, who ranks No. 66, comes in at healthy 93/1 odds. He has four top 10 finishes this season and has two top-20 finishes in three of the PGA events he has participated in since the PGA returned on June 11th with the Charles Schwab Challenge. 

Vegas Whispers

On The Move At William Hill U.S.

There have been some noteworthy wagers placed at William Hill in Las Vegas for this week's Workday Charity Open, according to Director of Public Relations Adrienne Prather-Marcos.

"One Nevada bettor placed $300 on Henrik Norlander 200/1 for a potential total payout of $60,300, the largest one as of now at William Hill.

Another $200 wager came in on Keegan Bradley at 175/1 for a potential total payout of $35,200. Both Norlander and Bradley are now 100/1.

The actual largest wager taken for the Workday Charity Open has come in on a head-to-head tournament matchup. One Nevada bettor put down $5,600 on Sungjae Im -160 against Byeong-hun An. If Im were to finish with a better score than An, that wager would pay out $9,100." 

Shawn Childs, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst (@Shawn__Childs)

PLAYERS TO WIN:

Patrick Cantlay (+1650)

It is going to be tough to get away from Cantlay this week. He won this event in 2019, which came after coming in 35th in 2017 and 4th in 2018. After a respectable start to this season (4th, 11th, and 17th), Cantlay played well two weeks ago (11th) while shooting under 70 in all four rounds (66, 67, 69, and 65). Over his last 27 tournaments, Cantlay has one win and 11 top 10 finishes.

Jon Rahm (+1295)

June (MC, 33rd, and 37th) wasn’t a good month for Rahm, which came on the heels of an excellent 12 weeks (nine top 10s and no finish outside the top 17). Over his last 28 tournaments, he has two wins and 16 top 10s. Rahm didn’t play last week, giving him an opportunity to retool his game. In his only appearance at this course in 2017, he missed the cut. Rahm looks poised to be back in the hunt this week on Sunday. 

BEST VALUE PLAY: Marc Leishman (49/1)

Over his last 82 events, Leishman has four wins and 23 top 10s. His 2020 season started with a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and a second place finish three events later. Since the layoff, he missed a cut and posted a 58th place finish.

Over the past five seasons at Muirfield, Leishman has two fifth place finishes and two other two other top 15s.

BEST LONGSHOT: Cameron Champ (88/1)

After a couple of down events (two missed cuts) before the COVID-19 shutdown, Champ shined over his past two tournaments (-24 over eight rounds), leading to a 12th and 14th place finish. His game is built around power while owning two wins over his first 39 events on the PGA Tour. 

Champ shot under 70 in six of his previous eight rounds. This course has four par 5s plus five par 4s that are between 452 and 485 yards. Trending forward with the tools to shine again this week.

Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)

PLAYERS TO WIN:

Justin Thomas (+1045)

Thomas is coming off a missed cut at the Travelers Championship before taking off for the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. He shot a 71 both Thursday and Friday, so he wasn’t great, but not brutal either. In his previous three events, Thomas had finished top 10 in all three, including one of them before the three-month postponement with a top-six in the Mexico Championship in February.

He's elite in almost every major scoring category, including top-five in birdie average, scoring average, sand save percentage, and strokes gained (SG) tee-to-green. He's also top-seven in SG: an approach which is one of the top metrics used to project performance at Muirfield.

Justin Rose (26/1)

Rose knows Muirfield well, having played the course 14 times in his career. He's only missed the cut three times and has seven top 10 finishes here. Of those seven top 10's, four have been top five, including a win in 2010.

He also ranks first in the overall Fantasy National mixed condition model specific to Muirfield Village Golf Club.

Stat via Fantasy National

Stat via Fantasy National

BEST VALUE PLAY: Cameron Champ (88/1)

Champ may be a bit overlooked, having only played the most recent and first tournament on the PGA Tour since play resumed. Still, the 25-year old Californian has quietly put together two top 14 finishes since the Tour returned, and also won the Safeway Open earlier this season.

I similarly look at Champ to what DeChambeau has accomplished so far this year. He ranks number one on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green. The biggest difference is DeChambeau has been incredible with the putter while Champ ranks 116th in SG: putting.

If the putter gets hot, Champ has the upside to win this Tour event at extremely enticing odds.

BEST LONGSHOT: Joel Dahmen (93/1)

I still feel like I’m missing something on why Dahmen’s odds continue to remain as high as they are. He’s had two top 20 finishes since the Tour resumed and is yet to miss a cut.

Dahmen is ranked 13th in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green and has four top 10 finishes and three top 6 finishes to his name so far in 2020. Via Fantasy National, Dahmen ranks first in SG: total, eighth in SG: off-the-tee, and seventh in SG: approach.

He's put up better final scores each week he's played, and if Dahmen can improve on his putting for just a week (145th in SG: putting), I think he makes for an excellent longshot play at Muirfield.

TOP PROP WAGER: Will Patrick Cantlay Finish in the Top 10? YES (+175)

Alex White, SI Fantasy & Gambling Contributor / Full Time Fantasy (@coachwhiteDFS)

PLAYERS TO WIN: 

Patrick Cantlay (+1650)

Last year’s Memorial Champion is back and ready to defend at the same course, just not the same tournament. He will have two opportunities to defend the title one week after the next. It would make history to have a guy win back to back events at the same venue.

I honestly believe he can do it. Cantlay’s last tournament yielded an 11th place finish while putting up an incredible 23 birdies. If he can limit the bogeys and get going early he should be in the mix on Sunday. The odds are fair for the talent and winning upside he brings to the table.

Xander Schauffele (22/1)

Xander is on the verge of his first win this season. He came out firing at the Travelers with an opening round of 63 and slowly fizzled out over the weekend to muster a 20th place finish. The odds are perfect for him to bounce back and bring home the first ever Workday Charity Tournament trophy.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Adam Hadwin (55/1)

Hadwin gained strokes in all six major categories last week. That type of balanced play is Hadwin’s bread and butter. What will separate him in this field will be dropping a few putts outside 20 plus feet. With the greens playing a bit slower than Memorial’s past he should have a clear advantage with being one of the best putters on tour. I will happily throw $20 on Hadwin to give me a chance at taking home $1,000 on Sunday afternoon.

BEST LONGSHOT: Russell Henley (125/1)

Henley gained an incredible 8.2 strokes through approaches alone at The Travelers. Unfortunately for him he lost 4.8 strokes putting and only managed a 32nd place finish. This has kept his odds down and will give us a chance to get undervalued. He is a very inconsistent golfer, but the irons can’t be ignored at these odds. If the putter of old comes out we will be in business on Sunday. 

TOP PROP WAGER: Will Hideki Matsuyama Finish in the Top 10: YES (+210)

Hideki took a few rounds to get rolling last week. When he started striping his irons, he didn’t let up. In his last two rounds he gained 4 strokes through approach alone. The chances he carries that momentum into this week are extremely high. With Bentgrass being his best green to putt on, I will cross my fingers and hope he can put a few in early. Matsuyama is no stranger to this course, he has a 6th and a 13th place finish in his last two attempts at Muirfield Village. 

Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@SIGambling)

PLAYER TO WIN:

Brooks Koepka (+1650)

After missing the last two tournaments, due to COVID-19 concerns, Brooks Koepka is back in action this week. Prior to that, Koepka finished 32nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 7th during the RBC Heritage tournament. Koepka played well throughout the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town as he fired four rounds in the 60’s and closed with a 65 on Sunday. Koepka hasn’t won a PGA event since the 2019 St. Jude Invitational but I’m willing to take a shot here.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Jordan Spieth (52/1)

Jordan Spieth makes his fourth start after sitting out the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. While his recent results were disappointing, during the Travelers Championship (54th) and RBC Heritage (68th), Spieth posted a 10th place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Spieth finished 7th and 13th during the two of the last three Memorial Tournaments at Muirfield Village. This is a good spot for Spieth to get back on track and he gets my longshot money.

TOP PROP WAGER: Will Patrick Cantlay Finish in the Top 10: YES (+175)

After skipping the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, Patrick Cantlay is playing his second tournament since the PGA Tour restart. Cantlay finished 11th at the Travelers Championship during his first event two weeks ago. Muirfield Village GC sets up well for Cantlay as he won the Memorial Tournament here last year. Cantlay shot a final round 64, with eight birdies, to finish with a 269 total. He finished fourth, one stroke out of a playoff, during the 2018 Memorial.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Ryan Armour (-120) over Scott Stallings

On a solid run, Ryan Armour finished 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 6th at the Travelers Championship. Armour posted seven straight rounds in the 60’s prior to shooting a 72 in the final round last week. Scott Stallings joined Armour in a five-player 6th place tie at the Travelers Championship but slipped to 39th in Detroit last week. Armour had a 283 total and Stallings shot 288 during the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village last year.

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