2026 American Express Betting Models, Picks: Going Low to Start the California Swing

No time for a smooth runway for us as we get into the PGA Tour season, because we’re onto the American Express as our second stop of the season and the start of the California swing. The pro-am event is one of the most difficult on tour to handicap and model simply because we only have ShotLink data for 50% of the rounds, with the tournament being played across three separate courses: the PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, the PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club.

While we may not have all of the strokes-gained numbers we’d like this week, there are a few things we do know about the PGA West courses and La Quinta. All three courses measure between 7,000 and 7,200 yards and are all par-72s, meaning we’re talking about shorter courses, and that the threat of water is the only real defense of the event, especially with the benign conditions we’re expecting this week in La Quinta. The result of that is that the AmEx typically produces one of the lowest winning scores of every PGA Tour season.

A byproduct of the low scoring is that we’ve also seen a plethora of longshot winners at this even. While Scottie Scheffler is set to tee it up and is the clear favorite, that brings a large portion of the field into play to potentially compete with the best in the world. It’s about identifying the right guys. And that’s exactly what we’re trying to do here.

Key Stats for PGA West and the American Express

Strokes-gained approach over last 36 rounds

When we’re talking about scores getting low, approach play is always going to be top of mind. Players who are giving themselves consistently good looks at low numbers is immensely valuable in a birdie fest, just as much so as putting well.

Sami Valimaki (1.234)
Scottie Scheffler (1.053)
Rico Hoey (0.979)
Austin Eckroat (0.869)
Russell Henley (0.833)

Birdie-or-better gained % in the last 36 rounds

As already mentioned, scoring can get close to 30 under this week at the American Express, so we’re not just looking for guys who can rack up birdies (though that’s plenty important), but also guys who can put more birdies on the card than the rest of the field, which is what this metric measures.

Scottie Scheffler (1.437)
Rasmus Hojgaard (1.369)
Alex Noren (0.979)
Justin Rose (0.928)
Ludvig Åberg (0.854)

Strokes-gained on “Easy” courses (last 36 rounds)

Sticking with the theme of scoring, it also stands to reason that we need to find the players who are taking advantage of benign conditions and the ability to score. So based on scoring rate and conditions on the PGA Tour, this is the group that has taken the most advantage of such situations.

Adrian Saddier (1.782)
Karl Vilips (1.574)
Scottie Scheffler (1.533)
Daniel Berger (1.305)
Patrick Cantlay (1.234)

Strokes-gained putting for the last 36 rounds

And what do you need to do in order to put circles on the scorecard? That’s right, get the ball in the cup. While I tend to not weigh putting too heavily in most models, a surefire birdie bonanza such as this tournament warrants a stronger and deeper look into those that have been the best with the flat stick of late.

S.H. Kim (1.321)
Alex Noren (1.185)
Harry Hall (1.003)
Rasmus Hojgaard (0.930)
Kevin Roy (0.807)

American Express model rankings this week

The top of the model is weighted heavily toward the most important attributes in this unique tournament for both betting and modeling. Strokes-gained approach over the last 36 rounds (20%) and birdie-or-better gained percentage (20%) lead the way, followed closely behind by strokes-gained on “easy” golf courses in the last 36 rounds (15%), strokes-gained putting over the last 36 rounds (10%), strokes gained on par-5s in the last 36 rounds (10%), and strokes gained on par-4s 400-450 yards (10%). After that, it’s a lower weight with course history at PGA West Stadium Course, PGA National and TPC Sawgrass as comp courses (5% each). Here’s what the results of that model spits out, with no surprise having Scottie Scheffler at the top.

Scottie Scheffler
Alex Noren
Ben Griffin
Russell Henley
Mac Meissner
Matthew McCarty
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Justin Rose
Denny McCarthy
Sami Valimaki

2026 American Express picks

Since Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite, I wouldn’t blame you for playing the “Winner Without Scheffler” market. However, these odds and picks this week at the American Express are against Scheffler.

Alex Noren +5500 (DraftKings)

My good friend Iain MacMillan is a known Alex Noren enthusiast, and I’m joining him this week on this endeavor, because the veteran fits the bill to a tee with what we’re looking for this week, and at a great price. Just across the board, you have to love how his game fits what we could see this week.

While he’s just 19th in this field in strokes-gained approach over the last 36 rounds, he backs that up by being second in strokes-gained putting over the same span, sixth in strokes-gained easy courses and third in birdie-or-better gained percentage. The one key area where he does lack a little bit is the success on par-5s, but the rest of his game is in good enough form to believe that he has what’s necessary in the bag to go low and contend this week.

The 43-year-old Swede was T25 at the American Express last year and T14 back in 2020. There are past signs of success at this event, and his recent form suggest a career-best finish is on the way.

Justin Rose +7500 (Caesars)

There are times when Justin Rose finds his way to the top of the leaderboard in a given tournament and you’re unsure how he keeps scoring. That’s always in play, and I’d like Rose at these odds with that formula alone. But there are actually some good signs in the veteran Englishman’s game beyond just his moxie.

My favorite thing right now is the balance of Rose’s game and how you can see it translating. Among players in the field this week, he’s 24th in strokes-gained approach, 32nd in strokes-gained putting and fourth in birdie-or-better gained percentage. There isn’t one aspect where Rose has necessarily been elite, but there also really isn’t an obvious detriment to his game right now either.

Further making the case for him is the fact that he’s in better form than he has been at the American Express in recent years, and he still finished T33 and T26 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. With a wide-open race to a low-scoring finish, I like the upside of Rose at 75 to 1.

Sami Valimaki +14000 (DraftKings)

Investing in Sami Valimaki is not for the faint of heart. There’s a ton to like in a longshot like him, especially for someone who has a PGA Tour win on his résumé already. However, there are going to be times when he makes you want to pull your hair out, even if he makes perfect sense for a tournament like The American Express.

As far as the good goes, Valamaki has been the best player in the field in strokes-gained approach—even better than Scottie—over the last 36 rounds. Furthermore, he’s top 20 in strokes-gained on par-5s over that same span, and 14th in SG: Putting as well. He’s also 54th in birdie-or-better gained percentage, but top 10 in just birdie-or-better percentage. At an event where the winner will need to go low, he has the game to do so.

With that being said, his misses are abysmal, and he has shown the propensity to find himself in metaphorical quicksand with a bad shot turning into multiple. That could cost him dearly in a birdie fest such as this, but overall, the risk of that is still worth it with his ball-striking and putting combo at 140 to 1.

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