2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Models, Picks: Lengthy Bay Hill Offers Complete Test

Our expert likes the world No. 2 to possibly win again at Bay Hill, which often delivers big-name winners.

Rory McIlroy is chasing a second win at Bay Hill and 30th overall PGA Tour title. | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

After only a quick respite from signature events, we’re back with the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational and one of the more fun tournaments of the year as the Florida Swing on the PGA Tour gets fully underway. Bay Hill Club and Lodge produces a ton of big-time winners, and it looks like we could be trending there this week, though two-time champ Scottie Scheffler might not be the guy we’re looking at. 

Bay Hill was opened in 1961 as a Dick Wilson design, but has undergone many redesigns in its history. The club was owned by Arnold Palmer starting in 1975 and remains tied to his legacy after his passing in a major way. The par-72 tract measures a demanding 7,466 yards with long par-4s, scorable par-5s, and some of the longest par-3s on Tour. Moreover, the water-lined course has trouble around every turn, and that’s before you ever mention the difficult rough and green complexes. 

There’s a reason that we see so many big-name winners at the Arnold Palmer Invitational—it’s a complete test that will bring every part of the game to the forefront. With that in mind, the model is crowded with all we had to pack into it this week, but the picks we came out with make a lot of sense overall. 

Key Stats for Bay Hill

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

With some diabolical areas around the green and a ton of water at Bay Hill, the importance of strong approach play can’t be overstated. So, as we tend to always do, we look at the best in that category to start in recent starts. 

1. Si Woo Kim (1.316)
2. Austin Smotherman (1.293)
3. Shane Lowry (1.235)
4. Ryan Gerard (0.942)
5. Viktor Hovland (0.934)

Strokes-gained around the green over last 24 rounds

Speaking of those areas around the green, if players do find themselves in them, finding a way to not put big numbers on the scorecard is just as important. Thus, the around-the-green play becomes far more important than I would normally weigh it. 

1. Taylor Moore (0.954)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (0.735)
3. J.J. Spaun (0.583)
4. Andrew Putnam (0.530)
5. Ben Griffin (0.528)

Approach proximity from 200-225 yards over the last 24 rounds

With Bay Hill being a long and demanding golf course, there are a ton of long approaches required regardless of how long you are off the tee (for the most part at least). So the ability to still get scoring looks on long approaches becomes of the utmost importance this week. 

1. Viktor Hovland
2. Robert MacIntyre
3. Ludvig Åberg
4. Daniel Berger
5. Cameron Young

Strokes-gained (course history) at Bay Hill

Truthfully, there aren’t many comp courses for Bay Hill. Quail Hollow is about as close as you can get, but even then, it’s imperfect. As such, we have to simply look at players’ history at Bay Hill itself to get a picture of how they’ve performed in these conditions. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.564)
2. Rory McIlroy (2.098)
3. Jordan Spieth (1.675)
4. Pierceson Coody (1.606)
5. Ryan Fox (1.605)

Arnold Palmer Invitational model rankings this week

In case you're new here—and this week in particular—we almost always tend to start the model with strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (15%), but then we have a balanced mix with strokes-gained around the green, proximity from 200+, strokes-gained Bay Hill and strokes-gained hard courses over the last 24 rounds (10% each). We then sprinkle across the board with weighted strokes-gained tee to Green, birdie-or-better-gained percentage, bogey avoidance, driving distance, strokes-gained putting on Bermuda, strokes-gained putting on fast greens, strokes-gained par-5s, strokes-gained par-3s over 200 yards, and strokes-gained Quail Hollow as the top comp course (5% each). That gives us the model in totality, which then spits out these 10 players as the top guys for Bay Hill.

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Matt Fitzpatrick
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Ben Griffin
9. Adam Scott
10. Collin Morikawa

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Rory McIlroy +1000 (FanDuel)

I would love to have Rory this week at the same odds we got him for at the Genesis (and came up short), but alas, we’ll have to settle for 10 to 1 and just move on about our day. However, it’s hard not to like what he offers given the form and history at the API.

After finishing T2 at Riv, he now comes to a place where he’s never finished outside the top 30, has only finished outside the top 15 twice in 11 starts, has a win in 2018 and a T2 in 2023. Now he also enters this tournament at a place he’s obviously comfortable, ranking ninth in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds and third in weighted strokes-gained tee to green. We know his driving distance will play at Bay Hill and that he can score with the elites in the field as well. 

We’re still getting some value with Rory simply because he’s not Scottie Scheffler, but also because Scottie isn’t necessarily playing like the world-beater we’ve come to know. That’s enough for me to take a long look at him this week. 

Viktor Hovland +4400 (DraftKings)

With the way that Viktor Hovland is currently playing, we’re obviously going to see some volatility in his game whenever we back him. At the same time, the signs continue to be too good for him to not look this week, especially with some peaks at Bay Hill and some terrific signs in his game. 

Hovland finished T2 and T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2022 and 2023, which is a good sign—even if he’s not finished inside the top 35 in any of his other five starts. His short game has been a massive detriment in three starts this season, including losing 3.94 strokes putting at Genesis. He’s much more average with the flat stick on Bermuda, though, which plays into him being fifth in strokes-gained approach, first in proximity from 200+ yards and third in strokes gained on par-3s over 200 yards.

Specifically, though, it just feels like the ball-striking is too good right now for him to not catch a good putter one week soon, and a place where he’s put together good finishes makes as much sense as any. 

Pierceson Coody +5600 (DraftKings)

When you think of long golf courses that we’ve seen this year, you have to think of Torrey and Riviera. Well, it just so happens that Pierceson Coody went T2 and T16 at those two events, and is playing some of the best golf of his young career coming into Bay Hill—where he quietly has one start in 2023 and finished T14. 

This is definitely the 2026 favorites playlist with Coody rounding us out, but I love where his game is at. He’s 18th in strokes-gained approach, 11th in weighted strokes-gained tee to green, sixth in driving distance, ninth in strokes-gained par-5s, and fifth in birdie-or-better-gained percentage over the last 24 rounds. The big question with Coody is always the short game, but he’s been about average on Bermuda greens. 

He’s a bit of a longer shot this week, but I do like where Coody’s game is and how the ball-striking profile could play well at Bay Hill, especially with a top-15 finish when he wasn’t as good of an overall ball-striker as he’s been recently. 

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