2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Models, Picks: Finding a Signature Winner

With this year’s cancellation of the Sentry to open the season, that means that we’ve finally arrived at the first signature event of the 2026 season with the PGA Tour heading to historic Pebble Beach Golf Links for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The field has shrunk to 80 players and will be a no-cut event with pro-am pairings for the first two rounds. But one key change is that we’ll only see the players teeing it up at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill as the course rotation, with Monterey Peninsula going by the wayside.

Pebble Beach, of course, is one of the most historic venues in American golf. Opened in 1919, it’s hosted the U.S. Open six times, the PGA Championship once, and this event every year since 1947. The par-72 course originally designed by Jack Neville and redesigned by Arnold Palmer and Thad Layton in 2016 will measure just 6,989 yards on the scorecard. Don’t think anyone is going to overpower it, though, as its coast-lined holes, windy conditions and positional value all make it a weathering test every year. Spyglass Hill, designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. and opened in 1966, is a tad longer at 7,026 yards, but offers some of the same defenses as Pebble Beach.

If there’s one venue I’m most excited (maybe outside the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village) to see the best in the world compete in a signature event each year, it’s Pebble Beach. But what does it take to win at this iconic tract? We only swim in the deep end when it comes to the model, so let’s jump on in.

Key Stats for Pebble Beach

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

Because of the tight green complexes, and even more so this week with wind and rain in the forecast, how players are coming in on approach will be pivotal to finding success. And for maybe the first time we’ll see in a while, Scottie Scheffler doesn’t actually crack our top five.

Si Woo Kim (1.516)
Shane Lowry (1.266)
Hideki Matsuyama (1.085)
Russell Henley (1.002)
Viktor Hovland (0.885)

Approach proximity from 100-125 yards

As mentioned, the short, positional nature of Pebble Beach (and Spyglass, for that matter) makes the ability to create scoring opportunities from close proximity all the more important.

Tom Hoge
Jake Knapp
Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa

Strokes-gained (course history) at Pebble Beach

While we do have some minor comp course numbers in the model, the history at Pebble Beach ultimately means more in my estimation. And this group here actually brings a fascinating group of players into the conversation.

Daniel Berger (2.271)
Jason Day (2.160)
Justin Rose (1.743)
Taylor Pendrith (1.688)
Garrick Higgo (1.628)

Good drive percentage over the last 24 rounds

Still sticking on the idea of a positional golf course, driving distance is really a non-factor this week—but where players end up off the tee is. So, it only stands to reason to have good drive percentage as a heavily weighted factor in the model.

Daniel Berger
Aaron Rai
Scottie Scheffler
Rico Hoey
Tommy Fleetwood

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am model rankings this week

There’s a little bit of everything in the model for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but the heaviest weight is put on the idea of playing high-quality positional golf. We start with strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%), approach proximity from 100-125 yards over the last 24 rounds (15%), strokes-gained Pebble Beach (10%), good drive percentage (10%), strokes-gained putting on Poa (8%), and weighted strokes-gained total in the last 24 rounds to account for field strength (7%). We then round things out with 5% each in the model for strokes-gained around the green, strokes-gained putting, birdie-or-better-gained percentage, strokes-gained short courses and strokes-gained at Harbour Town and Colonial for comp courses. Here are the top golfers that model spits out for us this week.

Scottie Scheffler
Russell Henley
Viktor Hovland
Hideki Matsuyama
Tommy Fleetwood
Justin Rose
Xander Schauffele
Ryo Hisatsune
Shane Lowry
Si Woo Kim

2026 AT&T Pebble Beach picks

Viktor Hovland +3000 (Bet365)

Hovland didn’t come through for us last week, but we’re going back to the well because he’s still playing tremendous golf. He surprisingly struggled off the tee in Phoenix, which was a surprise after gaining 1.6 strokes or more in his three DP World Tour starts this year, and still finished T10 and gained 5.02 strokes tee-to-green. That’s a good sign, and now he gets to take on a wet golf course that could very well reward him.

The Norwegian has two solid finishes at Pebble, a T22 last year and a T13 in 2023, but he’s lost short game strokes in all four of his starts. So it stands out that Hovland has actually been a plus strokes-gained around the green player over the last 24 rounds and a plus putter on Poa as well. When you combine that with top-five approach play and a good drive percentage that ranks 20th, you have to like the ability he could show to score this week.

It’s not a birdie fest at Pebble, but it is a golf course that players who are dialed in ball-striking wise can take advantage of. Hovland fits that bill to a tee, and he’s going to continue to shape up for a big year in 2026.

Pierceson Coody +6000 (Bet365)

Pieceson Coody still hasn’t cooled off during his hot start to this season, and I can’t ignore it. While there is one glaring hole in his profile—his good drive percentage is in the bottom half of the field—the fact that he could be able to club down off the tee this week and still have the requisite distance still makes a ton of sense.

Outside of that, Coody is 12th in strokes-gained approach, 17th in strokes-gained around-the-green, second in strokes-gained putting on Poa and 12th in birdie-or-better-gained percentage over the last 24 rounds. His ball-striking has been elite and it seems like the former prodigy is now fully coming into his own on the PGA Tour. Even better, his putter that can betray him has actually been a strength when rolling it on Poa as of late.

While doing it at a signature event might be a big ask for Coody, he’s playing well enough and putting himself in position enough to potentially pull it off.

Ryan Gerard +6600 (Bet365)

Because he’s been off for a week, we might’ve already forgotten the phenomenal start to the season (and the end of 2025, as well) for Ryan Gerard. But this is a guy who reeled off three straight runner-up or tied finishes and then still went T11 at Farmers so far, and he could be live again this week.

Gerard has been pedestrian putting on Poa, and it’s worth noting that he actually has been sub-average in terms of proximity from short ranges. At the same time, he’s sixth overall on strokes-gained approach in the field and 13th in strokes-gained around-the-green while ranking 13th in birdie-or-better-gained percentage in the last 24 rounds. He has a ton of game and his ball-striking is more than good enough to bank on.

There aren’t many longshots that interest me in a signature event, to be quite frank. Gerard, however, does stand out as someone who presents extremely good value based on his performance and potential fit.

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