2026 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Models, Picks: Approach Play at Forefront for Colonial

Following a birdie fest, the PGA Tour stays in Texas for a much sterner test at Colonial and our expert loves some trending younger players.

Alex Smalley | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

After Wyndham Clark’s foray back into the winner’s circle, we’re staying in Texas, but head to Fort Worth and famou Colonial Country Club this week for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge. Unlike the birdie fest we got last week, though, the short, demanding course this week will give us a new feel for what it takes to hold the trophy come Sunday afternoon. 

Colonial opened in 1936 and has been a host for the PGA Tour since 1946, as well as hosting the 1941 U.S. Open and 1991 U.S. Women’s Open. The Par-70 tract, designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell with renovations done in 2023-24 by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, measures 7,289 yards and is famous for being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. The tree-lined course demands accuracy, and the windy conditions of Texas this time of year combined with that and difficult greens will put a premium on ball-striking and overall accuracy this week. 

Of course, there’s more than just that going into the model for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, so let’s dive into the numbers and make some picks for this week’s tournament and return to Colonial. 

Key Stats for Colonial

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds (min 12 rounds)

Even more so than in any given week when I normally value approach play highly, it’s by far the top metric at a shorter course like Colonial where positioning is so key at every turn. 

1. Mark Hubbard (1.066)
2. Ludvig Åberg (0.972)
3. J.J. Spaun (0.957)
4. Tom Kim (0.843)
5. Zac Blair (0.720)

Strokes-gained tee-to-green in the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

Continuing the them of ball-striking, that’s going to be tested throughout the week at Colonial throughout the bag. 

1. Ludvig Åberg (1.992)
2. J.J. Spaun (1.309)
3. Doug Ghim (1.100)
4. Russell Henley (1.032)
5. Andrew Novak (0.937)

Strokes-gained putting on Bentgrass in the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

There’s a lot of balance in the model after we talk about ball-striking and approach play, and putting is a decent part of that. You have to not only score, but avoid big scores on the greens at Colonial. 

1. Sudarshan Yellamaraju (0.982)
2. Pierceson Coody (0.867)
3. Matthew McCarty (0.790)
4. A.J. Ewart (0.769)
5. Harry Hall (0.733)

Good Drive Percentage in the last 24 rounds

Once again returning to the ball-striking conversation, you have to value driving accuracy, but we also want to reward some distance there too. That’s where “Good Drives” come into play this week. 

1. Joel Dahmen
2. Jimmy Stanger
3. Ryo Hisatsune
4. Adrien Saddier
5. Tom Kim

Charles Schwab Challenge model rankings this week

The model for the Charles Schwab Challenge this week doesn’t have as many factors as we see in other weeks. Keep it simple, stupid — right? We start with a huge weight on SG: Approach (25%) and follow behind with SG: Tee-to-Green (15%). That leads us into more balance with SG: Putting on Bentgrass (10%) and Good Drive Percentage (10%) and approach proximity from 100-125, 125-150, 150-175 and 175-200 yards (5% each). It then rounds out with strokes-gained history at Colonial and comp courses of Sedgefield and Memorial Park (5% each). With all of that baked in, here’s how the model shakes out. 

1. Tom Kim
2. Russell Henley
3. J.J. Spaun
4. Ludvig Åberg
5. David Thompson
6. Gary Woodland
7. Austin Eckroat
8. Alex Smalley
9. Matthew McCarty
10. Rickie Fowler

2026 Charles Schwab Challenge picks

Alex Smalley +3500 (DraftKings)

The last time we saw Alex Smalley was when he was tying for runner-up and contending at the PGA Championship. But that peak major performance for him was just part of what’s been a phenomenal run of recent form from the 29-year-old over the past couple of months. 

Smalley was T21 at Houston at the end of March and hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 since, including two runner-up finishes and a T7 at Doral as well. He’s been doing that with the type of game that suited Aronimink and should suit Colonial as well, ranking seventh in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in Bogey Avoidance and Top 30 in Good Drive Percentage as well over the last 24 rounds. 

In the midst of what could be called a heater, if Smalley keeps up the form that he’s displayed over the past few months, he’s going to be in line to make some real noise as a contender this week at Colonial. 

Matt McCarty +6600 (BetMGM)

It’s not often that I put stock in a guy like Matt McCarty who, historically, has found so much success with the putter. However, when you combine his elite ability with the flat stick with what he’s been showing lately, that’s when I start to get more intrigued about what he’s capable of this week. 

This isn’t to say that McCarty has been a world-class ball-striker, but he’s been peaking by his own standards. He’s 23rd in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and has gained strokes there in his last four starts, which includes three Top 12 finishes and a missed cut at the PGA. But he’s done all this while ranking third in SG: Putting on Bentgrass and being in the top-half of the field in Good Drive Percentage. Oh, and let’s not forget his T8 at Sedgefield last year, the most natural comp for Colonial. 

He’s continuing to roll the rock beautifully, but has found something with his ball striking. That creates some serious value coming into this week for the southpaw. 

Tom Kim +7800 (DraftKings)

Despite the fact that Tom Kim was near the top of the model last week, I largely overlooked him because I wanted to see a bit more. He proceeded to lose 6.358 strokes with the putter and finish T54. But coming into this week, I’m willing to take a chance on a decent week on the greens for him with how he’s striking the ball. 

Kim has gained 5.347 and 6.988 strokes on just approach play in his past two starts, which included a T6 finish at Myrtle Beach when he gained even less than a full stroke with the putter. He’s fourth in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green while being fifth in Good Drive Percentage. He’s also had success at Sedgefield along with a T24 at Colonial a couple of years ago. 

This type of golf course is the ideal fit for Kim whenever he’s playing at his best form, and his approach play indicates that could well be the case. Even if he’s just an average putter this week, that could be enough to put a 78/1 player in contention.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.