2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Models, Picks: Needing to Go Low at TPC Craig Ranch

One week after a major, birdies by the bushel are back in business on the PGA Tour and our expert likes a veteran ball-striker as well as a young phenom about to break through.

Brooks Koepka is playing for the third consecutive week. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Now that Aaron Rai is a major championship winner, we naturally head to TPC Craig Ranch for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, because we need to be able to take a breath. While Scottie Scheffler returns to defend his title this week, this is a relatively weak field and one that could produce a longshot winner. 

TPC Craig Ranch opened in 2004 in McKinney, Texas, as a Tom Weiskopf design, but has recently undergone some renovations that will change the course a bit. There have been about 200 yards shaved off and now the par-71 measures 7,385 yards. However, it will still be a ball-striking and scoring test most likely, especially with wet, rainy conditions on deck throughout the week. 

So what does that all mean for the model at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson? It means we know exactly what we’re looking for, and that we’re also going to take some big swings with our picks this week. 

Key stats for TPC Craig Ranch

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds (min 12 rounds)

Especially with some wet conditions likely, this could be a dart fest. You think you’ve seen me weight strokes-gained approach heavily in the model before, but wait until you see the weight on this one. It’s going to be pivotal. 

1. Zac Blair (+0.880)
2. Brooks Koepka (0.832)
3. Tom Kim (0.715)
4. Scottie Scheffler (0.705)
5. Austin Eckroat (0.647)

Birdie-or-better gained percentage in the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

In the same vein, we’re looking for guys who have been converting opportunities into scoring. The winner of this event has consistently been in the mid-20s under par and we’re going to need the winner to separate themselves in that. 

1. Brooks Koepka (+0.965)
2. Blades Brown (0.857)
3. Scottie Scheffler (0.597)
4. Eric Cole (0.581)
5. Karl Vilips (0.528)

Strokes-gained on par-5s in the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

In the same vein when it comes to scoring, that means taking advantage of the opportunity on the par-5s at TPC Craig Ranch. So, naturally, we’re going to look at who has been able to do that the best of late.

1. Wyndham Clark (+0.422)
2. Peter Malntati (0.417)
3. Mac Meissner (0.386)
4. Tom Kim (0.328)
5. Pierceson Coody (0.281)

Proximity from 200-225 yards in the last 24 rounds

Admittedly, we get into a more balanced part of the model now, but I do think this proximity range will be worth watching. It’s still a golf course with some length, and the long approaches will absolutely matter.

1. Daniel Brown
2. Neal Shipley
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Henrik Norlander
5. Davis Chatfield

CJ Cup Byron Nelson model rankings this week

This week’s model is heavily weighted toward two things, which are the top key stats above. We start with strokes-gained approach (25%) along with birdie-or-better gained percentage (20%). We then go down substantially with the percentage to strokes-gained par-5s (10%) before getting into a balance with proximity from 200-225 and 225-250 yards, and strokes-gained TPC Craig Ranch (7% each). We then have driving distance (6%), strokes-gained easy courses and strokes-gained putting on bentgrass (5% each) and then strokes-gained on comp courses with Grand Reserve, Vidanta Vallarta, Colonial and TPC Twin Cities (2% each). With that, here comes the top 10 in the model. 

1. Tom Kim
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Thorbjorn Olesen
4. Mark Hubbard
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Noah Goodwin
7. Sam Ryder
8. Austin Eckroat
9. Eric Cole
10. Karl Vilips

2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks

Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

In the simplest terms, Brooks Koepka checks the boxes we’re looking for this week. He’s long off the tee, but his ball-striking overall has been phenomenal and has allowed him to be one of the best scoring players in golf of late. 

The issue with Koepka has been the putter, hands down. That club has been a monkey hanging on his back week in and week out. This week, however, the wet conditions could help him tremendously, both with speeds on the greens and with simply having shorter putts for a player who is second in strokes-gained approach and ninth in proximity from 200-225 yards out over his last 24 rounds. Oh, and he’s also first in birdie-or-better gained percentage over that span as well, this might just limit the squares on the card. 

Koepka has been showing a ton of good signs since returning to the PGA Tour, and this feels like the week where he can finally cash that in. 

Blades Brown +8000 (DraftKings)

Between the Korn Ferry Tour and sporadic starts on the PGA Tour, Blades Brown has undeniably been showing us something. In his last eight regular stroke play starts, he has two top-three finishes (one at Puerto Rico on the PGA Tour) and only one finish outside the top 40, in addition to only three finishes outside the top 16. 

When you look at his profile and form, though, the 18-year-old feels like he’s trending toward a big moment. He’s ninth in strokes-gained approach among his measured rounds, hits the ball plenty far, and is second in birdie-or-better gained percentage. He knows how to score and, much like with Koepka, I think this ultimately gives him a chance to keep piling on scoring opportunities without the usual downside of a couple bad holes that hurt his chances to win. 

We’re getting into longshot territory, but that’s something we’ve seen somewhat regularly at TPC Craig Ranch. Why not have a coming-out party for the 18-year-old this week in McKinney?

Jhonattan Vegas +16000 (DraftKings)

I know, it probably sounds crazy to take a guy whose T44 at the PGA Championship was his best finish since the calendar turned to April as an outright this week. But Jhonattan Vegas is someone we’re targeting early based on the numbers, as well as his history at TPC Craig Ranch. 

Vegas gained a ridiculous 11.099 strokes tee-to-green at Aronimink last week, but then bled strokes on the greens, losing 7.614 for the championship. However, this is a guy who might be rounding into the right form for a place where he’s had plenty of success. Not only did he finish T9 here back in 2021, but he showed up again with a T13 showing in 2025. And again, I’m less worried about the putting this week and more so about the ball-striking, which might be spiking. 

Make no mistake, there’s a reason that Vegas is 160 to 1 this week. Having said that, there is also enough of a potential spike week for him that we’re looking at to take that number and run with it. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.