2026 Cognizant Classic Betting Models, Picks: Seeking Ball-Striking, Putting Prowess at PGA National

After watching two straight signature events with loaded fields, the 2026 Cognizant Classic is going to be a haymaker to the senses. The stars are certainly not studding the field this week at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., and we’ve already seen some of the biggest names withdraw. While that does make things more volatile, it also presents some opportunities for us as well as they take on this fascinating course.

PGA National’s Champion course is a par-71 measuring 7,223 yards. It opened in 1980 as a George and Tom Fazio design, but was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus years later. The switch to Bermuda greens after weeks on Poa will be a big switch, but we’ve also seen this tournament shift in recent years. Scores have gotten lower as players have found ways to play with a bit more power on this course. That’s something that’s going to be factored in a bit as we try to model the Cognizant Classic, though this remains a ball-striker’s golf course—even if a hot putter certainly helps the cause, too.

We were all over the leaderboard last week with our picks and are dialed in now for a much different (and much lesser) field at PGA National. So let’s get into the numbers that you need to know for the Cognizant Classic before revealing the model’s results and our picks this week.

Key Stats for PGA National

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

While some things have changed around PGA National, the fact of the matter is that it’s still a precision golf course at its core, and that means approach play remains a pivotal part of the equation.

Austin Smotherman (1.313)
Shane Lowry (1.246)
Chris Kirk (0.973)
Ryan Gerard (0.900)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0.803)

Strokes-gained putting on Bermuda greens

I like weighting and targeting players who have performed on Bermuda greens after we’ve been playing on Poa in the California swing for some time now. The change in surface could be a boon for players who have thrived on Bermuda historically and recently.

Daniel Brown (+0.995)
Brendon Todd (0.570)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0.498)
Mac Meissner (0.479)
Kris Ventura (0.465)

Approach proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds

The old line for PGA National has often been to target proximity from 150-200 yards. However, with more drivers being used and more attacking mindsets, I think we see that continue to trend more heavily toward 150-175, so that’s the range I’m targeting this week.

Emiliano Grillo
Mac Meissner
Justin Lower
Daniel Berger
Sam Ryder

Strokes-gained (course history) at PGA National

Because of the unique test with wind, Bermuda, and an overall accuracy-based test, the history at PGA National absolutely matters in this equation, as it does on comp courses—but to a lesser extent.

Ryan Gerard (+1.921)
Kevin Yu (1.907)
Shane Lowry (1.598)
Luke Clanton (1.379)
Daniel Berger (1.370)

Cognizant Classic model rankings this week

The heavy emphasis on approach play and putting is quite apparent in this week’s model, starting with strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%) and followed closely by strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (10%). We then look at our two other highest-weighted stats for the week, with approach proximity from 150-175 yards (8%) and strokes-gained PGA National (8%). We then start to cover a lot more ground with strokes-gained around-the-green in the last 24 rounds (7%) and approach proximity from 125-150 yards (7%), before we round things out with strokes-gained off-the-tee, strokes-gained putting and strokes-gained total over the last 24 rounds (5% each), bogey avoidance (5%), total driving (5%), and finally strokes-gained at comp courses with Colonial, TPC Sawgrass, and Waialae (5% each). Here’s how the top 10 in the model shake out with those numbers.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Mac Meissner
Chris Kirk
Adam Scott
Ryan Gerard
Daniel Berger
Eric Cole
Sam Ryder
Shane Lowry
Nicolai Hojgaard

2026 Cognizant Classic picks

Ryan Gerard +1900 (DraftKings)

Gerard coming in first as it pertains to course history stands out quite a bit this week. He’s played here twice and has come out with a solo fourth and a T25 finish. When you then combine that with his form and fit for PGA National, it’s impossible to look away from him, even though he’s at the top of the odds board.

Over his last 24 rounds and across a hot start to his 2026 season, Gerard is fourth in the field in strokes-gained approach, first in strokes-gained total, fifth in bogey avoidance, seventh in proximity from 150-175 yards and top 30 in strokes-gained off the tee. That’s the type of balance profile we’re looking for here, even if he’s just middle-of-the-pack when it comes to his putting on Bermuda.

This is a guy who’s been consistently on the leaderboard to start the year, with only one finish outside the top 30 in five starts. With how wide-open this field is and how well he’s playing, this feels like the spot when he could get one.

Mac Meissner +4700 (DraftKings)

Given where Mac Meissner comes in on the model and how he’s been doing it, how could you not be intrigued by his prospects this week at the Cognizant? Granted, his history here is suspect with two starts that resulted in a T53 and a missed cut. But his ball-striking is in a spot where I think he can finally break through at PGA National.

Meissner is top 30 in this field in both strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained approach, but more importantly, he’s second in the field in proximity from 150-175 yards out and 19th in total driving over the last 24 rounds. Furthermore, he also comes in at fourth in the field in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda.

When you look back at his two starts here, he’s gained a marginal 0.316 strokes tee-to-green and then lost 5.5 strokes last year when he missed the cut. With the way his short game is playing and how he’s improved tee-to-green so far this season, it feels like his tepid history at PGA National could ultimately play to our benefit this week.

Sam Ryder +12000 (DraftKings)

You know we have to put a longshot into the mix and there is more than enough with Sam Ryder at 120-to-1 to grab my attention.

He’s only made two starts so far this season and the results haven’t been anything to write home about with a T27 and a T59. At the same time, the profile has a lot to like. He’s 10th in the field in strokes-gained approach and third in strokes-gained putting over his last 24 rounds, including ranking 25th in the field in putting on Bermuda. For good measure, he sneaks into the top 5 in terms of proximity from 150-175 yards out. If that’s the case with how well he’s putting, that feels like a great recipe. And that’s even more true when you consider he had back-to-back top 10 finishes here in 2021 and 2022.

Make no mistake, Ryder is volatile and there’s a reason that he’s not one of the favorites this week, not the least of which is his driving, which has been middling at best of late. At the same time, there’s enough to like to comfortably sprinkle on him at the Cognizant.

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