2026 Genesis Invitational Betting Models, Picks: A Challenge at Rain-Soaked Riviera

Back-to-back signature events at consecutive historic venues? The trip to Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational is truly one of my favorite events of the year, and the fact that we get it with the best players in the world in a limited field only adds to the drama. But with weather soaking California over the past week, it should present an even more challenging affair for these players this week—and produce a thrilling tournament.

Riviera was designed by George C. Thomas Jr. and William P. Bell and opened in 1926, meaning this year marks the 100th anniversary of this historic course. The course has hosted this event (formerly the Los Angeles Open) more than 60 times. The par-71 tract is a beast, measuring 7,383 yards on the scorecard and providing a long, daunting test off the tee where the rough and diabolical Poa green complexes can put a big number in play on every hole. And again, Riviera has been drenched with rain recently, which is only going to make it play longer and more demanding tee-to-green at the Genesis.

So what stats should we be targeting to try and find a winner this week? And who are the players who we’re backing to emerge victorious? Let’s dive into the numbers, the model, and our outright picks for this week’s Genesis Invitational.

Key Stats for Riviera

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

Especially with how demanding the green complexes at Riviera can be and with the weather changing the way Riviera will play, we’re back to ye old approach play as a crucial metric for the players this week.

Si Woo Kim (1.435)
Shane Lowry (1.427)
Hideki Matsuyama (0.978)
Matt Fitzpatrick (0.895)
Russell Henley (0.788)

Bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds

Because of the diabolical nature of these greens and the length of the course, a player’s ability to avoid putting big numbers on the scorecard and saving par is crucial. Scores will get relatively low, but there is an art to scoring at Riv, and taking bogey out of play as often as possible is a massive part of that equation.

Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Ryan Gerard
Shane Lowry
Nick Taylor

Strokes-gained (course history) at Riviera

One could argue that Riviera is a singular test on the PGA Tour, and that lends itself to valuing course history at this venue more heavily than I might in other weeks. It’s not just about wins, but about who has played consistently well at the Genesis over the years.

Cameron Young (1.875)
Max Homa (1.701)
Viktor Hovland (1.682)
Xander Schauffele (1.619)
Collin Morikawa (1.594)

Total driving over the last 24 rounds

I upgraded the importance of total driving this week from my initial model because of the wet conditions. That’s going to make playing out of the rough brutal, but also ask for distance, so we’re highlighting the metric that takes both distance and accuracy into account.

Rico Hoey
Scottie Scheffler
Ludvig Åberg
Daniel Berger
Rory McIlroy

Genesis Invitational model rankings this week

Because Riviera could best be construed as a complete, proper test, and now that we have wet conditions to contend with as well, there’s a lot that goes into the model this week. Bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds actually leads the way (15%), followed by strokes-gained approach, total driving, strokes-gained Riviera and strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds (10%) each). We also then have a smaller percentage balanced between strokes-gained around-the-green, good drive percentage, approach proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards, scrambling rate, strokes-gained putting on Poa, strokes-gained par-5s and strokes-gained at Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines as comp courses (5% each) to round out the model. With all of that, here are the model’s Top 10 golfers this week.

Scottie Scheffler
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Adam Scott
Si Woo Kim
Shane Lowry
Collin Morikawa
Harris English

2026 Genesis Invitational picks

Rory McIlroy +1325 (DraftKings)

Rory’s T14 last week was a bit disappointing, to be sure, but it’s not hard to see why that was the case when you consider that he lost strokes off the tee and on the greens. Now that he’s coming to Riviera, a place that (especially with the wet conditions) should reward his driving prowess much more, I think we see him fully in contention this week—especially after he gained 6.8 strokes on the field last week on approach.

While McIlroy doesn’t have a win at the Genesis, he has three top-10 finishes in his last six starts at Riviera and has only finished worse than T29 once in eight total starts here. Furthermore, he’s fifth in total driving and 11th in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds, while also coming in at second in strokes-gained tee-to-green over that span. And again, I can think of few players, particularly with how well he’s playing with his irons on approach, who are better suited to handle Riviera when it’s playing even longer than normal.

I’m expecting a big year from Rory, and this feels like the perfect spot for him to announce that with authority and find himself in the winner’s circle. And frankly, I like the odds he’s getting at this point before we see them shrink as the year goes on.

Cameron Young +3500 (Caesars)

Does it feel great to back Cam Young after two straight weeks losing strokes on approach and after he lost 2.19 strokes putting at Pebble last week? It does not, thanks for asking! However, not only am I looking at his length in the wet conditions this week as a plus factor, I’m also simply looking at his history at Riviera and I can’t ignore it.

Young has made three starts at this venue. He tied for a runner-up in his debut back in 2022 and then has added two more top-20 finishes to his résumé in the other pair of starts here. What’s more impressive is that he’s done that while losing strokes around the green in all three and losing strokes putting in two of them. Considering his short game has overall been much better, if he can get back to his swing feels on approach, there’s a chance he could play his way into contention again.

This is much less about form and much more about fit and history. But that can work out for you every now and then, and the talent of Young remains entirely undeniable.

Tony Finau +12000 (DraftKings)

In all honesty, you can put Tony Finau down in the category of “guy I’m backing that you probably shouldn’t” this week. And I don’t care. He finished solo 18th last week at Pebble Beach and finished T11 at Torrey earlier in the year. While those results are mixed in with three mixed cuts in his other starts, it’s enough at 120-to-1 odds to have my attention considering what Finau has been able to accomplish at Riviera in his career.

Finau finished tied for runner-up in 2018 here and has just one finish outside the top 35 and only two finishes outside the top 20 in his six starts at Riviera since then. It’s a course that clearly suits his eye. Moreover, outside of his recently wildly inconsistent approach play—which I’ll take 120-to-1 odds on him having it again this week like he did at Pebble with 3.29 strokes gained—this course simply plays to his strengths as a good driver (25th in good drive percentage) and top 15 in both proximity buckets, where more than 50% of approach shots come from at this event.

It’s certainly a longshot and one could argue that Finau has as good of a chance of finishing DFL as he does winning this event. But if ever there’s a place to get right, it’s a place like this where Finau has such top-tier history.

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