2026 Players Championship Bettors’ Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers, Props and Best Bets for TPC Sawgrass

The Players can be tough to predict, but our writers, editors and gambling experts have convened to break down the storylines and share their best bets for the week ahead at Sawgrass.

Key players to watch at the Players Championship include (clockwise from top left) Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy. | Reinhold Matay/Getty Images

The PGA Tour has arrived at its marquee event of the season: the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Historically, Sawgrass has produced a mix of legendary winners (Tiger, Rory, Scottie) and a few Cinderella stories (Craig Perks, Fred Funk). Its unpredictable nature lends itself to betting opportunities, and that’s what this article will explore. 

Here to break it down we have convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb, Max Schreiber and Jeff Ritter, along with Iain MacMillan and Brian Giuffra, two betting experts from our partners at SI Betting and FanSided. On to TPC Sawgrass.

What statistical profiles do you study for TPC Sawgrass, given the general consensus that it doesn't favor any one type of player?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: Pretty simple: greens in regulation. Sure, a good bit goes into that. You can’t be missing fairways and hitting greens. But TPC Sawgrass has a good bit of nuance. Giving yourself chances is always going to matter. You can shoot good scores and miss a lot of greens but it’s not advisable.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: While it’s true you can get a range of winners at the Players, there is a pretty clear profile that works—great drivers of the golf ball who are elite with the mid-irons. Bogey avoidance/short game play is also key, but when you look at who has won here over the last five years (Rory, Scottie twice, Cam Smith and Justin Thomas), they all have either one or both of strokes-gained off the tee or strokes-gained approach rolling heading into this one. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Driving accuracy and putting. This isn’t exactly rocket science but you simply can’t miss fairways around the Stadium Course and expect to contend, and the Dye greens have plenty of movement and should play fiery on the weekend if there’s no rain.  

One look at the 18th hole and you can see why the experts favor driving accuracy at TPC Sawgrass. | Ben Jared/Getty Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Driving accuracy is massive at TPC Sawgrass. This isn’t a course you can just bomb and gouge, especially since the PGA Tour increased the rough to 3.5 inches in length in 2024. Since then, it’s become one of the penal courses for missing a fairway on the PGA Tour’s calendar. Of course, approach play is always going to be important as well, but if a golfer can’t hit the fairways, it won’t matter how good an iron player they are.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Off the tee and approach play. So basically, great ball strikers. Look at some of the recent past champions: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas. Guys who fit that profile will emerge victorious. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Like some of the guys above, I like to see strong iron play from any player I might wager on. But given the caliber of recent winners, I’m also looking at current form and world ranking. I don’t think Cinderella will attend the ball this year.

To improve pace of play, this year's Players will be the first with a 120-player field after years at 144 (123 with the addition of Brooks Koepka and two alternates). Do you like the smaller field for handicapping purposes?

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  No because it’s unlikely that someone from those remaining 20 or so places is going to win anyway. Sure, the tournament has produced a wide array of winners over the years but none are outliers to the point that they might or might not get into the field.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: It doesn’t matter. Longshots often compete but rarely win here. With such a top-heavy field, the cream tends to rise, so those last 24 players barely register on the bettor’s mind. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: I hate it for the tournament itself and don’t like it for betting; the make-cut markets are where I like to find plus-money plays and there are good prices to be had at the bottom of a full board. This isn’t a U.S. Open where there are qualifiers or a PGA Championship with club pros; everyone in a PGA Tour field can make a cut.  

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: It won’t make too big a difference. The golfers who won’t be competing this year, who would have been in a 144-player field,  would have such long odds that they wouldn’t have an impact on the rest of the odds board. With 120 golfers, there are still plenty of long shots to bet on.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: I personally like to see as many players as possible tee it up, but it’s not like those 20 players who would have been in the field in years past have a good chance at winning. Therefore, it doesn’t really matter. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: None of the last 20 would be on my board. Carry on.

Shane Lowry appeared on cruise control two weeks ago at PGA National only to see his win disappear in the water at 16 and 17, and he also lost the Dubai Invitational earlier this year with a final-hole double bogey. When you see such meltdowns coming into a big event, do you immediately cross those players off your lists?

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  It depends. Was it such that he can’t recover? The bottom line is Lowry was playing well and had two bad holes at PGA National. Is his game in good shape? Does he fit the course? Those are bigger factors.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Yes. If I see someone choke like that, you know it’s between the ears. That won’t change unless they have an insurmountable lead, so if you’re betting on them, you’re not only betting they’re going to win, you’re betting they’re going to win by so much they couldn’t possibly blow it on the final nine.

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Yes. Picking winners is an elimination exercise and crossing off players with fresh scars is one place to start. I’m not necessarily surprised when those players bounce back, though. I just don’t have them on my tickets. 

Shane Lowry comes into TPC Sawgrass two weeks after a tough defeat at the Cognizant Classic. | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: It’s always dependent on that golfer’s odds. If a golfer is listed in the top 20 on the odds board, despite having a history of not being able to close tournaments, I will certainly cross them off my list. But, if a golfer has much longer odds than they typically would because of a recent lead they let slip through their grasp, I’d take a shot on betting on them. Most golfers who have the title of “choker” do eventually get over the hump. Look at Xander Schauffele winning the 2024 PGA Championship, or Tommy Fleetwood winning last year’s Tour Championship.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Not necessarily. In this circumstance, I always think back to Kyle Stanley. He blew a three-stroke lead on the final hole of the 2012 Farmers Insurance Open and then lost in a playoff. However, he bounced back by winning the WM Phoenix Open the very next week. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: The best golfers in the world find a way to recover from disappointment. Look at Rory at Augusta. But Lowry’s wound is fresh. Yes, he played well to get in that position, and I’m sure he’ll eventually win another Tour event, but I wouldn’t pick him to win this week. Too soon.

The Masters famously hasn't had a player win in his first visit since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, but the Players hasn't been first-timer friendly either—Craig Perks in 2002 is the last to win in his first appearance at TPC Sawgrass. Do you give any Players rookies a chance this week?

Bob Harig, SI Golf: It’s more a numbers game. There are far more players who have experience than who don’t and so it makes the chances less likely that someone new will win. Marco Penge is an intriguing first-timer who made his way to the PGA Tour via the DP World Tour. It certainly would not be surprising to see him do well. But I’m not betting on a first-timer winning.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: It’s almost the same answer I gave above about longshots—not that all first timers are longshots. The field is so deep and so top heavy it’s hard to see a first-timer breaking through. It’s a shame Bridgeman played it last year because I would say him. How about Michael Thorbjornsen? He pounds the ball and is accurate off the tee. I’m sure he’ll have some bets on him this week, though I’m staying away.  

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Michael Brennan leads the Tour in strokes-gained tee to green and I’m eager to see how he might leverage that around the Stadium Course. But his 310-to-1 price at DraftKings underlies the challenge of closing the deal as a first-timer. 

Marco Penge is a first-time contestant at the Players who some of our experts have an eye on. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: With the Players having as big of a field as it usually does, it’s hard to find a first-time participant that has a real chance to win. Usually, it would have to be a European who’s playing with a PGA Tour card for the first time, or a young golfer fresh out of college. In this year’s edition of the event, there is one name that belongs to the former of the two categories. Keep an eye on Marco Penge, who racked up several wins on the DP World Tour last year and already has a T16 finish at the Genesis Invitational this year. He’s one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet, so he has the game for TPC Sawgrass.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: I mean, it could happen. But if you’re actually putting money down on this event, it’s probably safer to choose someone with success and/or experience at TPC Sawgrass. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Nah, no rookie winners this time. The field is too loaded.

We have to ask: Yes or no on the ace prop at the renowned 17th?

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  I like that bet. Obviously it’s not a given, but the 17th has yielded its share of aces over the years, certainly more than the 8th hole. If in a gambling mood, this is a good one.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Like heads or tails at the Super Bowl, it’s a coin flip. With a smaller field, the chances are slimmer. They tend to position pins for aces so why not! 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: I’ll go contrarian and take the no, with a nod to the smaller field, even though aces and great ace celebrations are good for business. 

From the betting apps to the hillsides and suites, there is plenty of interest in the hole in one market at 17. | David Cannon/Getty Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting:  I’m going to say yes. There has actually been a surprisingly high number of aces on this famous hole over the past few years. There wasn’t one in 2025, but there was at least one in the four editions of the event prior, including three in 2023. This prop is typically offered at plus-money, so I think it’s worth a look this week.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Every year between 2022 and 2024, there had been an ace on 17, including three in 2023. Last year, that streak came to an end, though Alejandro Tosti did it in a practice round. Seems like someone is due to do it during tournament play this year. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Oh yeah, I love betting on aces. And the Tour might stick the pin on 17 in a favorable spot to increase the odds of an ace. That highlight would land on SportsCenter and the Tour would love it.

Give us one longshot, odds 60-1 or longer, who could surprise.

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  Corey Conners is always an underrated player whose putting problems have kept him from winning more. But he’s an elite ball-striker who should excel at TPC Sawgrass.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: Sepp Straka has my attention at +6500 on FanDuel. T14 here last year, T9 in 2022 and T16 in 2024, he clearly likes the course. He was T2 at Pebble a few weeks ago and T18 at the Waste Management. He’s won big events before, but this would be the biggest of his career. I’m not concerned about nerves with him. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Alex Noren has finished T29, T12, T24 in this year’s three signature events and was T19 here last year. DraftKings has him at 72 to 1 to win, though I’m more intrigued by getting +490 to see him fly out of Jacksonville with a T10 or better. 

Does Jacob Bridgeman, the Genesis Open champ, have another massive win in him this week? | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Aaron Rai is widely available at around 100 to 1 heading into this week. If accuracy is important, Rai is your guy. He loses strokes off the tee with his lack of distance, but he’s accurate enough that the playing field is evened for him at TPC Sawgrass. He’s in the top 20 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation, so if he can get some putts to drop this week, he has a chance to be in contention.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Ryan Gerard. A top-10 iron player on Tour, he began this season with consecutive runner-ups and has only two finishes outside the top 30, including a missed cut at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Still, if he regains his form, I like this week to be his “hello, world” moment. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Jacob Bridgeman dominated Riviera for three days and then hung on to win it on Sunday. It was impressive. I’m surprised he’s 70 to 1.

And finally, there can only be one: who wins the Players and why? 

Bob Harig, SI Golf:  Scottie Scheffler. Easy choice. His game wasn’t back last year when Rory McIlroy won after his offseason accident leading to a rare finish outside of the top 10. The two-time champ will be primed to atone for that rare misstep.

Brian Giuffra, SI Betting: I’m not saying he will win, but Cameron Young at +5000 on FD feels like a nice value. He hasn’t had a ton of success at the Players, but he’s a much different player now. His approach game is dialed and he always gains shots off the tee with his combination of distance and accuracy. But it’s the putting that’s made the biggest improvement in the last year and that will be key. 

John Schwarb, SI Golf: Tommy Fleetwood will win the Ponte Vedra Slam™, putting a Players trophy next to his 2025 FedEx Cup. He comes in off a so-so week at Bay Hill (49th) but was T4 at Pebble Beach and T7 at the Genesis, and has a solid Players history including two top-seven finishes.  

Of course there is support for Scottie Scheffler to win on our panel. But it's not widespread. | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: Si Woo Kim. He has quietly been putting up one of the best statistical starts to a season in his career, and now he heads back to event that he won in 2017, and he finished inside the top 10 in two of the past five years. He’s been extremely accurate off the tee, and his approach numbers have been off the charts. As long as his putting holds up on greens that he should feel plenty of confidence on, I think he has a very real chance of winning this event for the second time in his career.

Max Schreiber, SI Golf: Chris Gotterup. One of the longest bombers on Tour, if he can be a little more accurate off the tee, and continue his superb iron play that has helped make him the only two-time winner so far this season, he’ll be the one in the winner’s circle Sunday night—and the clear frontrunner for Player of the Year. 

Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I was ready to pick Scheffler a few weeks ago, but he seems just a little off, and I’m not sure Sawgrass is the place to go to find your best form. The fact that everyone here picked a different winner shows just how wide open this event currently appears. I’ll pick a new name as well: Collin Morikawa, who hits irons as well as anyone, won earlier this year and is fresh off another top-10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.