2026 Sony Open Betting Models, Picks: Course Fit at a Premium at Waialae

Golf, welcome back! The 2026 PGA Tour season is set to kick off with the Sony Open at historic Waialae Country Club this week after The Sentry was cancelled. But while the Hawaii swing on Tour is a week shorter than normal, we’re set up for what should be a sensational foray back into PGA Tour action as the Sony Open always delivers—and hopefully it delivers a winner for us this week.

Waialae is a par-70 measuring 7,044 yards on the scorecard and featuring just two par-5s. As one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour, the Seth Raynor design that’s nearing its 100-year anniversary demands the right type of fit to succeed here. Positional golf and approach play are always at a premium, and that’s especially true if the windy conditions that are always lurking come into play.

We’ve seen someone like Justin Thomas reach 27 under in the past, but the winner of the Sony Open hasn’t been better than 18 under in the past three years, including a playoff won by Nick Taylor last year at 16 under. That is to say there will be scoring, but not as freely as some might think. And with that, let’s dive into what we should be targeting with our bets this week at Waialae.

Key Stats for Waialae

Strokes-gained approach over last 36 rounds

When you’re talking about a short course like Waialae, it’s impossible not to go back to the well of valuing approach play above all else. Not only are we looking at recent ball-striking form, but we’re also honing in on specific ranges and proximity numbers as well. But for here, let’s just look at the strongest approach players recently.

Rico Hoey (1.213)
Aaron Rai (0.998)
Daniel Brown (0.998)
Zac Blair (0.967)
Austin Eckroat (0.993)

Fairways gained over the last 36 rounds

Speaking of the short course again, the challenge at this event and course is making sure you’re in the right position, which might be the most crucial off of the tee. I had to look at which players have been the best at finding the fairway in their recent form in relation to the rest of the field. To no surprise, there were some familiar faces who popped up here.

Haotong Li (3.079)
Russell Henley (1.868)
David Ford (1.842)
Aaron Rai (1.706)
Takumi Kanaya (1.679)

Strokes-gained around the green over the last 36 rounds

Similarly when it comes to positioning, if a player doesn’t have the best approach, their ability to scramble around the green and either still make a number or avoid a bogey is absolutely paramount. While strokes-gained around the green isn’t my favorite metric, it’s worth considering heavier than normal at Waialae.

A.J. Ewart (1.036)
Patton Kizzire (0.774)
Keegan Bradley (0.520)
John Keefer (0.506)
Christo Lamprecht (0.500)

Strokes-gained on par-4s 400-450 yards in last 36 rounds

Finally, the other major thing that we have to look at is the par-4 scoring on shorter par-4s. This course not only features 12 par-4s, but the majority of them fall in the 400-450 yard range. Taking advantage of these holes can be the path to victory, so eyeing players who have been doing so only stands to reason.

Si Woo Kim (0.711)
A.J. Ewart (0.666)
Mac Meissner (0.588)
Aaron Rai (0.559)
Daniel Brown (0.539)

Sony Open model rankings for Waialae

For the Sony Open this week, in case you haven’t recognized it yet, we’re trying to pinpoint the right course fit, namely someone who can attack this short Waialae course specifically with their ball-striking, though there’s a bit more to that. The model is looking at the last 36 rounds with strokes-gained approach (15%), fairways gained off the tee (7%), strokes-gained par-4s 400-450 yards (7%), strokes-gained around-the-green (7%), bogey avoidance (6%), proximity from 125-150, 150-175 and 175-200 yards (5% each), strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (5%), course history at Waialae, Colonial, Sedgefield, Sea Island and Pebble Beach (5% each), strokes-gained short courses (5%), strokes-gained par-4s 450-500 yards (3%). With all that baked in, here’s what our model spits out.

Russell Henley
Ben Griffin
Si Woo Kim
Mac Meissner
Emiliano Grillo
Aaron Rai
Corey Conners
Chris Kirk
J.J. Spaun
Eric Cole

2026 Sony Open picks

Ben Griffin +1900 (FanDuel)

I don’t see any reason why the Ben Griffin ascension has to be left in 2025. When you look at his form, he makes perfect sense for Waialae with how his skills blend and, ultimately, fit this course.

Coming into this week, Griffin is 19th in the field in strokes-gained pproach, second in bogey avoidance, 22nd in strokes-gained par-4s of 400-450 yards, and third in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda over the past 36 rounds. He’s also quietly been a menace on short courses overall with this combination, ranking 10th in the field on such venues over the last 36 rounds. He has it working throughout the bag, specifically as it pertains to this tournament.

There is always some trepidation when it comes to form carrying over from year-to-year, but considering that Griffin finished second at the Procore prior to the Ryder Cup and then won the World Wide Technology Championship in November, I don’t think the goods are going anywhere.

Aaron Rai +3500 (DraftKings)

Based on the value and ball-striking, I might actually prefer Aaron Rai to Ben Griffin this week. There are some obvious shortcomings when it comes to the Englishman, most notably that his putting on Bermuda has been nothing short of bad in his recent form. At the same time, the highs of his profile this week are good enough to make anyone salivate at his prospects.

Rai is not only second in the field in strokes-gained approach over the last 36 rounds, but over the same span, he’s seventh in strokes-gained par-4s measuring 400-450 yards, and fourth in fairways gained. There are some longer courses wherein Rai is almost eliminated the moment he steps onto the first tee because of his lack of driving distance, but Waialae isn’t one of them. And more importantly, the ball-striking is all the way there right now.

Rai won on the DP World Tour in November and finished his PGA Tour season strong in August. While he can be a bit more volatile than some other short hitters, this feels like a major opportunity for him to contend—even if his history at this place has been less than stellar, with no finish inside the Top 50 in three starts.

Mac Meissner +6600 (BetMGM)

The form for Mac Meissner in the fall is exactly what you want to see. He missed the FedEx Cup Playoffs despite a runner-up finish at Sedgefield, then went on to finish T27 or better in four of his five starts this fall, including a T14 at the Sanderson Farms. Furthermore, when he was in worse overall form, he ball-struck his way on approach to a T21 at the Sony Open last year.

Meissner’s approach play has remained well above average, ranking 20th in this field in strokes-gained approach over the last 36 rounds, while also coming in at fifth in both bogey avoidance and in strokes-gained on the par-4s in the key ranges. For good measure, he’s also third in strokes-gained approach from 150-175 yards out. His game is made for a place like this, and he’s improved his driving accuracy to be top 45 in this field in fairways gained.

Where Meissner wins me over is that he’s been stellar at Colonial and Sedgefield, in addition to a good start at Waialae last year. He certainly has a type in terms of the courses where he’s shown his best form, and this is one of those venues.

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