2026 Valero Texas Open Betting Models, Picks: Tee-to-Green Play at a Premium

Last stop before Augusta, but the Valero Texas Open is no slouch in its own right. The winds in Texas and a field comprised of players trying to get a warm-up in for the Masters, players trying to get into the Masters, and players trying to get their season going creates a fun, fascinating tournament in windy Texas.

TPC San Antonio wasn’t established until 2010, but the Oaks course, designed by Greg Norman and Sergio Garcia, has hosted the historic event ever since—though the Texas Open itself has been played for more than a century, since 1922. But the Oaks course provides a unique test with the 7,438-yard, par-72 layout that doesn’t have too penal of rough, but has enough demanding angles that it becomes a terrific test of ball-striking and tee-to-green play.

Corey Conners has been a stud at the Valero Texas Open and TPC San Antonio, but he’s not in the field this week. Neither is Collin Morikawa, one of the favorites, after a WD. So where does that leave us? Let’s dive into the numbers, the model, and of course our picks for the 2026 Valero Texas Open.

Key Stats for TPC San Antonio

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

While I always favor strokes-gained approach, it’s by far the most correlated stat when it comes to winners at the Valero Texas Open, so it’s a massive priority this week in the model. And we’ll be targeting it quite heavily with our picks as well.

Austin Sometherman (1.035)
Si Woo Kim (0.697)
Sepp Straka (0.692)
Thorbjorn Olesen (0.567)
Ludvig Åberg (0.563)

Fairways gained in the last 24 rounds

The penalty for missing the fairway isn’t huge, but because of the emphasis on approach play at TPC San Antonio, players being in good position relative to the rest of the field is meaningful, so we’re getting a strong look at fairways gained this week.

Andrew Putnam (2.022)
Kensei Hirata (1.675)
Si Woo Kim (1.503)
Lucas Glover (1.460)
Davis Chatfield (1.262)

Strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds

Bringing somewhat of the total ball-striking package into the mix, we had to look hard at players who are simply getting themselves in good shape consistently to score, which I believe strokes-gained tee to green ultimately does.

Si Woo Kim (1.463)
Tommy Fleetwood (1.299)
Ludvig Åberg (1.210)
Austin Smotherman (1.153)
Ryo Hisatsune (1.151)

Bogey avoidance in the last 24 rounds

Winning scores at the Valero Texas Open are truly all over the map. But one thing that we do know is that this isn’t an event where you can give shots back to the field. So the players who have avoided bogeys should come into play this week.

Russell Henley
Kris Ventura
Hideki Matsuyama
Robert MacIntyre
Brandt Snedeker

Valero Texas Open model rankings this week

As mentioned, the strokes-gained approach portion of the model is even bigger than in most weeks, so we start there with a whopping 20% weight on that. That’s followed by fairways gained (15%), strokes-gained tee to green (12%) and bogey avoidance (9%) as our top pieces of the pie. We then have a healthy dose of strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained around the green (8% each), as well as course history at TPC San Antonio (7%). We then look at total driving over the last 24 rounds and strokes-gained putting on slow greens (6%), before rounding it out with strokes-gained par-5s (5%) and course history at two comps, Detroit Golf Club and TPC Craig Ranch (2% each). When you run the numbers with all of that, here’s how the model shakes out for this week’s Valero Texas Open.

Si Woo Kim
Russell Henley
Tommy Fleetwood
Ludvig Åberg
Ryo Hisatsune
Sepp Straka
J.J. Spaun
Michael Thorbjornsen
Alex Noren
Hideki Matsuyama

2026 Valero Texas Open picks

Sepp Straka +2900 (DraftKings)

We’ve seen Sepp Straka play some really quality golf of late, finishing top 20 in four of his last five starts, including a tied-runner-up finish at Pebble and a T8 at the Players. How he’s gone about that, however, makes him even more enticing this week at TPC San Antonio.

Straka has gained strokes on approach in all six tournaments he’s played so far in the 2026 season, and has actually gained 2.1 or more strokes in that department in five of the six as well. But he’s also sixth overall in strokes-gained tee to green with top 40 marks in strokes-gained off the tee and around the green. What’s more, he’s also improved his finish in each start thus far at the Valero Texas Open, culminating with a T22 last year in his third start in this event.

Straka has the approach play and the grit to compete at this tournament, and he’s showing all of the right signs to do exactly that.

Thorbjorn Olesen +6300 (DraftKings)

It’s kind of wild, but Thorbjorn Olesen’s profile is honestly not all that dissimilar from Straka’s. The only major difference—and why I might actually like him more, especially at this number—is that he has a better career history at TPC San Antonio.

In two starts at this tournament, Olesen has come through with a T14 and T5 finish, which is even more impressive when you consider that he’s done that while losing strokes putting in both of those starts. Now he comes in after a T14 in Houston last week and while ranking fourth in the field in strokes-gained approach, seventh in strokes-gained tee to green, top 35 in off the tee and around the green and, promisingly, slightly gaining with the putter on slower greens.

Does that guarantee success for Olesen this week? Absolutely not. But it’s clearly a place where he feels comfortable, and there are a ton of signs with his form that lead you to believe he’ll be a big factor this week.

Austin Smotherman +8600 (DraftKings)

If we’re talking about an approach play contest, then we have to have Austin Smotherman on the card. I know some people got burned with him blowing at the Cognizant and then not looking great at the Valspar, but his DNA is made up of the stuff that succeeds here.

He leads the field in strokes-gained approach, he’s 20th in strokes-gained off the tee, and he’s still fourth in strokes-gained tee to green despite being outside the top 100 in around-the-green play. The putter can be a concern, and anyone who’s backed him before will tell you that’s the case. But the ball-striking is truly world-class right now, and we’ve seen time and again that can legitimately lead to hoisting the trophy at TPC San Antonio.

Put simply, Smotherman is playing too well with his ball-striking for him to be 86 to 1. That’s a number to jump all over, and to potentially take advantage of in some placement markets as well.

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