2022 U.S. Open: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for The Country Club
At +4000, Max Homa looks primed to break out on major stage.
During a week where so much focus and attention involved issues off the course, the first RBC Canadian Open in three years was electric and a nice moment for the PGA Tour.
Heading into the final round, the Toronto faithful were treated to four of the best players in the world in contention to win. Defending champion Rory McIlroy was joined by Justin Thomas and Tony Finau in the last group. A duel broke out between McIlroy and Thomas on the back nine and it was the former who used a 17th hole dart to propel him to his 21st PGA Tour victory, one more than Greg Norman.
As for the picks, sleeper Brendon Todd was steady throughout the week and finished T-13. Our favorite, Cameron Smith, could not recover from a tough Thursday and local Adam Hadwin could not make enough birdies.
Watch: SI.com's Betting Expert Makes His U.S. Open Picks
We now head back across the border for another open, the U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. Storylines abound for the season’s third major with the talent field being deep as ever, even with Tiger Woods saving himself for St. Andrews. The return of select LIV stars, including Phil Mickelson’s first start on American soil this year, adds more intrigue. There is plenty of history from the 20th Century at The Country Club dating back to Francis Ouimet’s underdog story of winning this tournament as an amateur, and the American’s epic Ryder Cup comeback in 1999. We have no doubt there will be plenty of fireworks this week as Brookline begins its new major chapter.
According to SI Sportsbook, the favorite is last week’s RBC Canadian Open champion McIlroy at +1000. Right behind are world no. 1 Scottie Scheffler and PGA champion Justin Thomas at +1200. Next up is defending champion Jon Rahm at +1400. To close out the notables is Cameron Smith at +2000.
For our favorite, we’re going outside those mentioned above and with the value in Matthew Fitzpatrick at +2500. For most of the 2022 season, Fitzpatrick led the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total, until McIlroy knocked him down a peg last week in Canada. However, he remains in second and shines on tougher layouts than most players in the world. This week it will be at a place not many of the fresh faces are too familiar with, but Fitzpatrick will be returning to the site of his 2013 U.S. Amateur triumph. Furthermore, in each start since the beginning of 2022, he’s not finished worse than T14 outside of his three missed cuts. Look for Fitzpatrick to be in contention for his first major once again.
For a midrange pick, it was a tough choice between 2017 champion Dustin Johnson and more recent star Max Homa at +4000 because of the sheer value in the former world No. 1, but we’re sticking with the latter. Homa is not dealing with as many distractions this week and has been one of the most consistent players in the world in 2022. Homa has two wins on the season, and he followed up his Wells Fargo Championship with his best ever finish in a major at Southern Hills with a T13. He’s another player that enjoys tough layouts and elite fields, and proved that again at the Memorial with a T5 as well. In his last 36 rounds, Homa ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained: ball striking and total, both key areas to be successful at Brookline. Now that he’s contended on this stage, we believe he’s ready to take the next step.
For a sleeper, Aaron Wise at +8000 looks to be the play. Outside of winning last fall, he might have had the best run of any player on Tour as he did not finish worse than T26 in each of his five starts. Wise regained form during his T17 performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and has only missed one cut since, including a T6 at the Mexico Open and a second-place finish at the Memorial. Wise ranks in the top-30 in strokes gained: approach, tee-to-green and total while also holding steady in the top-20 of greens in regulation and birdie average, both key indicators for success. Wise was in contention early at the PGA Championship and he should build on that experience to be more of a factor on the weekend at The Country Club.
2021-22 picks scoreboard:
Events: 30
Winners: 3
Top 5s: 9
Top 10s: 5
Top 20s: 3
Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:
Rory McIlroy +1000
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Justin Thomas +1200
Jon Rahm +1400
Cameron Smith +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Viktor Hovland +2500
Jordan Spieth +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500
Shane Lowry +2800
Sam Burns +2800
Tony Finau +3000
Joaquin Niemann +3000
Brooks Koepka +3500
Cameron Young +4000
Dustin Johnson +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Max Homa +4000
Sungjae Im +4500
Billy Horschel +4500
Daniel Berger +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Corey Conners +5500
Abraham Ancer +6600
Davis Riley +6600
Justin Rose +6600
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Mito Pereira +6600
Aaron Wise +8000
Patrick Reed +8000
Talor Gooch +8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Adam Scott +9000
Harold Varner III +9000
Keegan Bradley +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Seamus Power +10000
More U.S. Open Coverage From Morning Read:
> LIV Golf Questions? Brooks Koepka Is Not Here for It
> Rory McIlroy Reaffirms Commitment to the PGA Tour
> Jon Rahm Is Concerned About Ryder Cup Ramifications from LIV Golf
> The Harder the Better for Xander Schauffele, and Hopefully This Week Is His Best
> The Best U.S. Open Bet is a Rising Star Whose Odds Are 28-1 This Week
> Boston’s Other Green Monster
> Listen: NBC’s Dan Hicks on Brookline, His Favorite U.S. Open and Ryder Cup Moments
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