2022 Valero Texas Open: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks for TPC San Antonio

In the final tune-up before Augusta, we recommend looking to players who have played TPC San Antonio well in the past.

Match play is generally volatile, yet last week the final four came down to three very dependable faces at Austin Country Club.

2017 champion Dustin Johnson, 2019 champion Kevin Kisner and last year’s runner-up Scottie Scheffler arrived on Sunday to battle it out with Canadian Corey Conners. In the end, the trophy landed in the hands of Texas-native and hottest player on Tour right now, Scheffler, who redeemed last year’s close match with Billy Horschel and not only walked away victorious, but is now the No. 1 player in the world.

We bought into the randomness of match play and unfortunately our picks Justin Thomas, Russell Henley and Keith Mitchell did not make it out of their groups. We’ll look for a return to normal service in San Antonio.

In the final tune-up prior to the Masters, the Tour heads down the road to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. This will also be the final chance for some notable players (Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley and others) to qualify for next week’s "Tradition Unlike Any Other.” The 7,500-yard course favors those who can hit the long ball, but also maneuver their way through spring winds. If the conditions are favorable, we should see the winner approach 20-under-par.

According to SI Sportsbook, world No. 9 Rory McIlroy is the favorite as he looks for a solid week of preparation for the one major that has eluded him. He's at +800. Next is defending champion Jordan Spieth at +1400, followed by the aforementioned Conners and defending Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama at +1800. To close out the notables is Abraham Ancer at +2000 coming off a good week in Austin.

For our favorite, we must look at last year’s defending champion Jordan Spieth at +1400. Early April has become his time to shine, and he always enjoys playing in his home state of Texas. Outside of last year’s win, Spieth owns eight top-10 finishes and another victory in this event. Spieth did not get out of his match-play group last week, but a return to normal stroke-play should get the positive juices flowing. Certainly a “horse for the course” in this situation and we believe the friendly confines should do him well.

For a midrange pick, Keegan Bradley at +4000 is enticing. Last week, Bradley did not get out of his group or win a match but halved two of the three for a decent showing. Prior to his missed cut at the Valspar Championship, Bradley had not missed a cut in the new year, including two recent showings of T-11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T-5 at the Players. Now he heads to a place where over the past 24 rounds he ranks top-5 in strokes gained: opportunities gained, off-the-tee and ball-striking, all key statistics to excel at TPC San Antonio. With motivation to play next week in Augusta, Ga., look for Bradley to contend.

For a high sleeper, we’re going to follow the steam on Brendan Steele at +6000. Despite missing the cut in five straight events to begin 2022, he seems to have found something these past few weeks. Steele finished T-26 at Bay Hill and T-13 at TPC Sawgrass and now arrives at a place he’s thrived. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in strokes gained: off-the-tee at this event. Steele has the driving game to set himself up for success on a course that requires it. One of Steele’s three victories on Tour came here in 2011, so he knows how to win and if his putter can get hot for just one week, he’ll surely be high on the leaderboard come Sunday.

2021-22 picks scoreboard:

Events: 20
Winners: 2
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 2
Top 20s: 1

Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:

Rory McIlroy +800
Jordan Spieth +1400
Corey Conners +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Abraham Ancer +2000
Bryson DeChambeau +2200
Gary Woodland +2800
Chris Kirk +3000
Si-Woo Kim +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Maverick McNealy +3300
Adam Hadwin +4000
Keegan Bradley +4000
Jason Day +4500
Jhonattan Vegas +5000
Luke List +5000
Russell Knox +5000
Patton Kizzire +5000
Charley Hoffman +5000
Mito Pereira +5000
Davis Riley +5500
Kevin Streelman +5500
Sahith Theegala +5500
Brendan Steele +6000
Rickie Fowler +6500
Ryan Palmer +6500
Robert MacIntyre +6500
Rasmus Hojgaard +6500
Martin Laird +8000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Scott Stallings +8000
Ian Poulter +8000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +8000
Lucas Glover +8000
Matt Kuchar +8000
Doug Ghim +8000
Anirban Lahiri +8000
Richard Bland +10000
Matthew NeSmith +10000
Lee Westwood +10000
Kramer Hickok +10000
Chad Ramey +10000
Dylan Frittelli +10000
C.T. Pan +10000
Takumi Kanaya +10000
Charles Howell +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Min Woo Lee +10000
Alex Smalley +10000
Brian Stuard +10000
Matt Jones +10000
Aaron Rai +12500
Matthias Schwab +12500
Danny Lee +12500
Branden Grace +12500
David Lipsky +12500
Pat Perez +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Cameron Champ +12500
Beau Hossler +12500
Nate Lashley +12500
Doc Redman +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Austin Smotherman +15000
Brendon Todd +15000
Nick Hardy +15000
Brice Garnett +17500
Joseph Bramlett +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Adam Schenk +15000
Sam Ryder +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Andrew Putnam +17500
Kevin Chappell +17500
Harry Higgs +17500
Tyler Duncan +17500
Lee Hodges +17500
Hank Lebioda +17500