2022 Valspar Championship: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites, Sleeper Picks for Innisbrook Resort
Amid a sodden and wacky week at the Players, so much was up for grabs, yet it all ended up in familiar hands.
The week saw a multitude of contenders, some of whom we’re familiar with each week and many trying to kickstart their season. However, one of the most consistent players on Tour in recent years, Cam Smith aka “The Mullet,” used his unrivaled short game and an absolute dart on the famed 17th hole in Monday’s final round to capture his biggest victory. A visit with the water on 18 still could not deny Smith, now second in the FedEx Cup standings and a favorite to add a major to his resume sooner than later.
As for the picks, they were as convoluted as the weather last week. Favorite Hideki Matsuyama dropped out due to injury before play began, mid-range pick Billy Horschel withdrew midway through his third round and sleeper Alex Noren just missed a top-20 finish, so we hope you tapped into the top-30 and top-40 markets for him.
We end the Florida Swing down in Palm Harbor, Florida, for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Like all the Sunshine State layouts prior to this week, the Copperhead Course is one of the sternest tests on Tour. In the last eight years, the winning score has only surpassed 10 under par twice. It is perhaps because the closing three holes are the some of the most unforgiving in the country and infamously known as “The Snake Pit.” Conquer the pit each day, and you’ll be in contention.
According to SI Sportsbook, the favorite is ball-striking wizard Justin Thomas at +1000. To follow are reigning British Open champion Collin Morikawa and Norwegian star Viktor Hovland at +1100. Next up is Dustin Johnson, coming off a closing-round 63 at the Players, at +1400. To close out the notables is world No. 9 Xander Schauffele at +2000.
Instead of giving you a favorite this week, we’re going to provide two high mid-range players offering more value.
The first is Mexican star Abraham Ancer at +3000. Ancer flew under the radar last week because he did not miss the cut nor did he ever get into real contention. Ancer has had middling results after a solid fall performance, but the Copperhead Course should suit his eye. It is not a bomber’s layout and creativity will be needed. Ancer is one of the world’s best-ball strikers and ranks in the top-30 in putting average. To set up his elite approach game, he also ranks seventh in driving accuracy, which will be paramount to contend at all. Ancer finished fifth here last year, so look for him to seriously contend again this week.
The second is Jason Kokrak at +3300, another player who had a lackluster week at the Players, but still managed to make the cut amid the randomness. Kokrak has not only played his best golf over the past two seasons, but he loves the Copperhead Course. He has made the cut six out of his last seven trips here, which includes five top-15s and a runner-up performance in 2019. In his last 24 rounds in Palm Harbor, Kokrak ranks in the top-3 in each key strokes-gained metric: tee-to-green, ball striking, approach, off-the-tee and total. With two-time winner Paul Casey off the board after withdrawing Tuesday, there is no better horse for the course this year.
For a deep sleeper, we’re going with a guy who is coming in without all The Players baggage in Adam Svensson at +12500. The once Canadian wonderkid has shown flashes of his potential this year with a seventh-place finish at The Sony Open and a T9 at The Honda Classic. The most recent performance at PGA National is one that catches our eye because the Champion course also has a tough closing stretch of three holes and favors crafty ball-strikers. Svensson just added Bryson DeChambeau’s former caddie, Tim Tucker, to his bag and it seems like the two of have hit it off as well. He’s made seven of his last 10 cuts and we would be shocked if he doesn’t make it this week as well.
2021-22 picks scoreboard:
Events: 18
Winners: 2
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 2
Top 20s: 1
Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:
Justin Thomas +1000
Viktor Hovland +1100
Collin Morikawa +1100
Dustin Johnson +1400
Xander Schauffele +2000
Louis Oosthuizen +2200
Sam Burns +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Brooks Koepka +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Shane Lowry +2500
Abraham Ancer +3000
Jason Kokrak +3300
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Bubba Watson +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Alex Noren +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Jason Day +5500
Keegan Bradley +5500
Russell Knox +6000
Webb Simpson +6000
Adam Hadwin +6000
Kevin Kisner +6000
Brian Harman +6600
Cameron Tringale +6600
Harold Varner +6600
Mackenzie Hughes +6600
Aaron Wise +6600
Sebastian Munoz +7000
Denny McCarthy +7500
Bernd Wiesberger +8000
Lanto Griffin +9000
Matthias Schwab +9000
Jhonattan Vegas +9000
Martin Kaymer +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
Francesco Molinari +10000
C.T. Pan +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Adam Svensson +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Doc Redman +12500
Joel Dahmen +12500
Alex Smalley +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Charley Hoffman +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Carlos Ortiz +12500
Mito Pereira +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Scott Stallings +12500
Danny Willett +12500
Stewart Cink +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Vaughn Taylor +15000
John Huh +15000
Branden Grace +15000
Troy Merritt +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Chad Ramey +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Adam Long +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Danny Lee +15000
Sahith Theegala +15000
Brandon Wu +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000