2026 Masters Betting Models, Picks: Favorites at the Forefront for Augusta

Every single one of the 91 players teeing it up at Augusta National Golf Club hopes to be decked out in a coat colored with Hex Code #006747, better known as the green jacket, come Sunday. It’s time for the Masters and the first major championship of the 2026 golf season.

Designed by Bobby Jones and Alister MacKenzie, Augusta National probably needs no introduction to the majority of golf fans. But in case you were curious, it was established in 1933 and has hosted the Masters since 1934. Of course, Augusta has changed dramatically over 93 years, lengthening now to over 7,500 yards on the scorecard for the par-72 layout, adding trees, the azaleas and so much that we’ve come to know and love as golf fans.

One of the benefits of playing this tournament at Augusta National every year is that the formula for success here is widely proven. We’ll see that as we look into our model this week, and then who fits the bigll the best coming into the 2026 Masters Tournament.

Key Stats for Augusta National

Weighted strokes-gained tee-to-green over last 24 rounds

Augusta may well be the most pure tee-to-green test in the game of golf. Look at various trends for winners, and you’ll see time and again that, despite the reputation of the greens at the Masters, it’s about the shots before that which determine success.

Matt Fitzpatrick (2.679)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.462)
Ludvig Åberg (2.399)
Collin Morikawa (2.303)
Cameron Young (2.275)

Strokes-gained at Augusta National

Once again, it’s worth bringing up how sticky course history at Augusta is. Not only do players who have succeeded at the Masters tend to continue that as long as they’re in good form, but experience also matters indelibly at this place, which means it has to play a significant role in the model this week.

Ludvig Åberg (2.875)
Scottie Scheffler (2.683)
Jordan Spieth (2.021)
Jon Rahm (1.908)
Collin Morikawa (1.684)

Strokes-gained around the green over the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

Because of the diabolically tight lies around the greens and the contours throughout the course, even the best iron players and ball-strikers are going to miss greens. Around the green play is pivotal to success at Augusta, far more than I bake into most other models throughout the year.

Scottie Scheffler (0.617)
Nick Taylor (0.581)
Tommy Fleetwood (0.567)
Alex Noren (0.557)
Harry Hall (0.548)

Strokes-gained on Par 5s over the last 24 rounds (min. 12 rounds)

There’s an adage for the Masters that, paraphrased, says “take advantage of the par-5s and survive the other 14 holes”. If only it were that simple overall, but there’s plenty of truth in that as well. The parr-5s are scorable and have to be taken advantage of, so it only stands to reason to look at the best in the field in doing just that.

Jake Knapp (0.340)
Patrick Reed (0.294)
Matt Fitzpatrick (0.266)
Jon Rahm (0.261)
Scottie Scheffler (0.256)

The Masters model rankings this week

The SG: Tee-to-Green component at the Masters can’t be overstated and it’s not in the model, sitting at a whopping 20% of the pie this week. We then have a pretty heavy but even split between SG: Augusta National, SG: Around the Green, SG: Par 5s, SG: Putting on Fast Greens, and SG: Majors (10% each). We then have SG: Approach (8%) and Proximity from 200-225 yards (7%) before rounding things out with an even mix for Driving Distance, Approach Putt Performance and SG: Hard Courses (5% each). With all of those numbers being run, these are the Top 10 for the model this week.

Ludvig Åberg
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood
Brooks Koepka
Adam Scott
Jordan Spieth

2026 Masters picks

Jon Rahm +1000 (FanDuel)

I’m so bold, pushing Scottie Scheffler at some of the best odds we’ve seen for him in two years to go to the No. 2 on the odds board with Jon Rahm. However, it feels like everything is trending perfectly for Rahm coming into this spot.

Considering that Rahm has a green jacket in his closet, there’s not need to over-belabor the success that he’s had at Augusta in his career. Heck, even in pretty middling form by his standards last year, he still managed to sneak inside the top 15. But his performance has leveled up since then, as he ranks third in SG: Tee-to-Green thus far in the 2026 season, but does so while having a far better short game than the two ahead of him (Fitzpatrick and Morikawa).

After a lull following his departure for LIV Golf, it seems like Rahm is primed to reassert himself as one of the best in the world. Another Masters win would certainly go a long, long way in doing exactly that, and set the tone for the rest of this major season.

Ludvig Åberg +1650 (DraftKings)

As much as I like Rahm coming into this tournament, Ludvig Åberg is at the top of the model this week and the top of my picks. I don’t remotely care about the developing notion that he can’t close. What I know is that he’s an elite ball-striker coming into the Masters in terrific form, reeling off three straight top-5 finishes.

The model breakdown tells a lot of the story. He’s third in weighted SG: Tee-to-Green, which takes into account field strength. He’s also 15th in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds, third in SG: Around the Green over that span, top 5 in SG: Putting on fast greens, and first in Proximity from 200-225 yards. Oh yeah, he’s also got a runner-up and another top-10 finish in his two career starts at Augusta.

He’s going to be chalky, but I’m not scared of it. There are so many signs for him coming into this week, that I’d be kicking myself (win or not) if I didn’t have some backing in Åberg at Augusta this week.

Jordan Spieth +4500 (FanDuel)

Let’s get weird with it, which of course means we’re investing in Jordan Spieth this week. Look, the simple truth of the matter is that Spieth has still put up good finishes at The Masters even when he’s not been playing well. But now he comes to a place where he’s had a ton of success showing some positive signs with his form.

Spieth is quietly top 10 in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 12 rounds, a sign that he’s rounding into some sort of form. He’s also been a positive putter over that span, and there are few players in the field for The Masters who can match his track record at this venue.

I won’t lie, there isn’t as much data to back Spieth as there is someone like Matt Fitzpatrick (who I also like quite a bit this week). But there are enough signs in combination with his course history for me to follow a gut feeling that Spieth is going to put himself into the mix this week.

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