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2021 Hero World Challenge: Odds, Best Bets for Albany Golf Course

Although he hasn't won the Hero — yet — we like Bahamas resident Justin Rose at +2500 because of his solid track record here.
Back home in Nassau, Justin Rose at 28-1 (+2500) will look to find some momentum heading into 2022.

Back home in Nassau, Justin Rose at 28-1 (+2500) will look to find some momentum heading into 2022.

Never be afraid to fade yourself.

For all the reasons we looked at Bryson DeChambeau in The Match V, is exactly why Brooks Koepka won in dominating fashion. We believed the more outspoken and focused DeChambeau would be too much in a 12-hole duel, but whenever Koepka comes in under-the-radar or seemingly not at his best, that’s when he strikes. His cool natured approach to the entire circus that Vegas can be was exactly what was needed while DeChambeau was gripping the putter handle a bit too tight to make anything.

The unofficial holiday tour now takes us down to the sunny Bahamas for the Hero World Challenge where Tiger Woods hosts and proceeds benefit the Tiger Woods Foundation and local Nassau community. 

There is a sense of optimism in the air this year with not only the tournament returning after being cancelled last year because of the pandemic, but with Woods offering hope towards another comeback. He kept his expectations extremely low in his onsite press conference, but if golf fans know anything of his past, he will certainly give it his best shot. Henrik Stenson returns as the defending champion from 2019 along with 17 of the world’s top-25 players.

According to SI Sportsbook, the slight favorite is Rory McIlroy at +700 over recent Race to Dubai winner Collin Morikawa at +750. They are followed by Justin Thomas and Mayakoba champion Viktor Hovland at +1000.

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For just an elite 20-man field, we’ll provide two picks to finish in the top five or better.

For a favorite, we are going to make the case for trending Justin Thomas at +1000. For most players in the world, if they had won a tournament on the same level of prestige as The Players, they would have called it a very successful year. Not Thomas. Outside of his win at TPC Sawgrass, there were no other trophies for a player who expects a lot from himself. However, his recent refocus has led to finishing fourth or better in three of his last five starts and has finished fifth – 12th – 11th in his three starts at Albany. We believe Thomas will treat this week a springboard into 2022 rather than one into the nearby resort pool.

For a value pick, Justin Rose looks to be the play at +2500. Even though Rosey has not triumphed in the Hero World Challenge, he loves playing at Albany. In his last three starts, he’s finished third, T-5 and T-5. Rose seems to always be in contention probably because he lives just around the corner. Throw in the fact he just finished T-12 at the RSM Classic as well, so Rose will look to find some form after missing the FedEx Cup playoffs last season.

2021-22 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 1
Top 5s: 3
Top 10s:
Top 20s: 1

  • Odds according to SI Sportsbook:
  • Rory McIlroy +700
  • Collin Morikawa +750
  • Justin Thomas +1000
  • Viktor Hovland +1000
  • Bryson DeChambeau +1100
  • Jordan Spieth +1100
  • Xander Schauffele +1200
  • Sam Burns +1600
  • Scottie Scheffler +1600
  • Tony Finau +1600
  • Abraham Ancer +1800
  • Daniel Berger +1800
  • Brooks Koepka +2000
  • Webb Simpson +2000
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200
  • Justin Rose +2500
  • Patrick Reed +2800
  • Tyrrell Hatton +2800
  • Harris English +3300
  • Henrik Stenson +5500