2022 3M Open: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for TPC Twin Cities
When a moment of intuition strikes, stay the course.
We began this column as play resumed on the PGA Tour after the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020. Not once have we made or even thought of a pick prior to the week ahead, let alone six months in advance. However, the moment Cameron Smith won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January, our mind was made up on who was going to light up the Old Course at St. Andrews this year. His game fit perfectly and if he just leaned on his strengths, he’d be Champion Golfer of the Year. Amazingly enough he did just that, even with an over-par round of 73 on Saturday. Apologies to anyone who was rooting for the fairytale moment for Rory McIlroy, but this was Smith’s major to lose and we think he knew that too.
As for the rest of the picks, Tommy Fleetwood had a strong weekend to record a T4. But our deepest sleeper to date, Brandon Wu, excruciatingly missed the cut by just one stroke after doubling No. 16 on Friday.
We now ride the wave of positive momentum back across the Atlantic for the remainder of the PGA Tour season. It begins with the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and the most notable change to the now four-year host is the purse has increased by $900,000. The par-71, 7,430-yard layout remains a bomber’s paradise as extra distance off the tee has been key to success. Going low will also be imperative as each of the last three winners were 21 under par, 19 under par and 15 under par.
According to SI Sportsbook, the favorite amidst the weakened field post-Open is Tony Finau at +1300. Just behind is Sony Open winner Hideki Matsuyama at +1600, followed by journeyman Sungjae Im at +1800 and Canadian standout Adam Hadwin at +2000. To close out the notables are both Maverick McNealy and Sahith Theegala at +2200.
For a favorite, we’re not going to take any of those mentioned above and instead look to Davis Riley at +2500. It’s been a promising start to the young man’s first campaign as he’s recorded three top 20s and five top 10s, including a playoff loss at the Valspar Championship in March. We also like a few others near him on the board, but he did not travel to and from Scotland this week. Furthermore, over his past 24 rounds, Riley ranks top 10 in each key strokes-gained category for TPC Twin Cities: total, tee-to-green, approach and off-the-tee. He’s taken some time off and should be refreshed to contend again for his first win.
For a midrange pick, we’re going back to Chris Gotterup at +4500 after his success at the John Deere Classic when we took him as a sleeper. As a refresher, he was honored with the 2022 Haskins and Nicklaus awards as the country's top college player. In just five total starts, he’s made four cuts, including his first PGA Tour start at the Puerto Rico Open and the aforementioned John Deere Classic where he took advantage of the light competition both times and finished T7 and T4, respectively. He’s coming off a missed cut at the Barbasol, but shot 67 in his second round. This looks to be another spot where he can excel.
For a sleeper, we’re going with the last guy on our board below and taking Callum Tarren at +9500. He’s had a volatile season on the PGA Tour, but he’s shown more promise in the second half of his season. Tarren has only missed three of his last 10 cuts and that includes a strong run at the U.S. Open where he ultimately finished T31. More recently, he finished T6 at the John Deere Classic and T22 in his last start at the Barracuda Championship. And to dig a bit deeper, Tarren was top-10 in driving distance and greens in regulation at the Tahoe event, which will be crucial for success at the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities should set up well for the Englishman.
2021-22 picks scoreboard:
Events: 35
Winners: 5
Top 5s: 11
Top 10s: 6
Top 20s: 3
Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:
Tony Finau +1300
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Sungjae Im +1800
Adam Hadwin +2000
Maverick McNealy +2200
Sahith Theegala +2200
Cameron Davis +2500
Davis Riley +2500
Cameron Tringale +2800
Mark Hubbard +3000
Adam Long +3300
Brendan Steele +3300
Charles Howell III +3300
Chez Reavie +3300
J.T. Poston +3300
Martin Laird +3300
Brendon Todd +3500
Nick Hardy +3500
Ryan Palmer +4000
Adam Svensson +4000
Chris Gotterup +4500
Jason Day +4500
Rickie Fowler +4500
Cameron Champ +5000
Dylan Frittelli +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Wyndham Clark +5000
Matthew NeSmith +5500
Lanto Griffin +6000
C.T. Pan +6600
Troy Merritt +6600
Austin Smotherman +7000
Doug Ghim +7000
Lucas Glover +7000
Matthias Schwab +7000
Stewart Cink +7000
Erik van Rooyen +7500
Michael Thompson +7500
Greyson Sigg +8000
John Huh +8000
Nick Taylor +8000
Danny Willett +8500
Patton Kizzire +8500
Tyler Duncan +8500
Danny Lee +9000
Hayden Buckley +9000
Stephan Jaeger +9000
Beau Hossler +9500
Callum Tarren +9500