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2022 American Express: Picks, Odds, and Favorites for PGA West

We like Tony Finau at +2000 and Matthew Wolff at +3000 when the PGA Tour returns to the mainland this week in California for the American Express.
At +2000, Tony Finau looks to kickstart his year at a place he almost won last season.

At +2000, Tony Finau looks to kickstart his year at a place he almost won last season.

Some courses and tournaments just love drama and a good playoff. Waialae Country Club is one of those places.

Now four of the past seven Sony Open’s have gone to a playoff and this year it was a duel between reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and a player on the cusp of his first Tour win in five years in Russell Henley. Ultimately, it was the major winner throwing in a dart on the first playoff hole that was too much for Henley who did not make a single birdie on the back. Matsuyama has now followed up his win at Augusta with another win on home soil at the Zozo Championship and now in Hawaii.

The picks last week were like Henley’s closing ability: nonexistent. Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer and Brendan Steele all missed the cut, and we look forward to arriving back on the mainland for potential California gold this week.

First stop not on “island time’’ is The American Express at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif. After a one-year absence, we’ll also see the return of the pro-am portion of this tournament. The tournament will be played over three courses and culminate at Pete Dye’s Stadium Course on Sunday. The past 10 winners of this contest have been an eclectic group ranging from Jon Rahm as the favorite to Andrew Landry as a +20000 underdog. However, the constant that remains is each of those winners firing at least 20-under-par on their way to glory.

According to SI Sportsbook, world No. 1 and 2018 champion Jon Rahm is the favorite at +550. Next up is reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay at +800. To follow is Scottie Scheffler still looking for his first win at +1800. Tony Finau and Sungjae Im at +2000 close out the notables.

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For our favorite, there’s some value in Tony Finau at +2000 as we try and catch him back on the upswing. To begin this season, Finau did not finish better than T-45 in his first three starts. Fall ball may not be his thing. However, he recently took seventh at the Hero World Challenge and placed 19th in Kapalua where each round got better and better. Last year, Finau finally got the monkey off his back winning The Northern Trust and he now arrives at a place he finished fourth last year. Finau is very capable of continuing the positive momentum this week.

For a midrange pick, there’s no value here, but Matthew Wolff at 30-1 must be the play. In his four fall starts, Wolff finished T-17th, 2nd, T-5th and T-11th to lay a foundation of consistency we have not seen out him for a while. In his last twelve rounds, he’s top-10 on Tour in strokes gained: total, short game, around-the-green, tee-to-green and putting. Most importantly, birdies are needed at PGA West and Wolff ranks 11th on Tour in birdie average. The bounce-back season has already started for Wolff, just a matter of when he cashes the big check.

For a sleeper, Canadian Adam Hadwin looks right at 75-1. The one-time Tour winner finished last season missing seven of his last ten cuts. However, there is something about PGA West that brings the best out of him. He’s never missed the weekend in his six starts here and from 2016–19, he finished in the top-10 each year including setting a course record in 2019 with a 59 in the third round. To begin this season, Hadwin has made five straight cuts, so look him to make a strong push up the leaderboard if he makes the latter half of the contest once again.

2021-22 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 1
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s:
Top 20s: 1

2022 American Express: Odds

Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:

  • Jon Rahm +550
  • Patrick Cantlay +800
  • Scottie Scheffler +1800
  • Tony Finau +2000
  • Sungjae Im +2000
  • Corey Conners +2200
  • Abraham Ancer +2800
  • Patrick Reed +3000
  • Matthew Wolff +3000
  • Russell Henley +3300
  • Talor Gooch +3300
  • Seamus Power +3300
  • Will Zalatoris +4000
  • Cameron Tringale +4500
  • Justin Rose +4500
  • Rickie Fowler +5000
  • Alex Noren +5000
  • Si-Woo Kim +5000
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
  • Jhonattan Vegas +6600
  • Charles Howell +7000
  • Carlos Ortiz +7000
  • Adam Hadwin +7500
  • Brian Harman +8000
  • Gary Woodland +8000
  • Cameron Champ +8000
  • Luke List +8000
  • Chris Kirk +8000
  • Sebastian Munoz +8000
  • Russell Knox +9000
  • Adam Long +10000
  • Denny McCarthy +10000
  • Michael Thompson +10000
  • Andrew Landry +10000
  • Jason Day +10000
  • Phil Mickelson +10000
  • Brendan Steele +10000
  • Brendon Todd +10000
  • Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
  • Chez Reavie +10000
  • Harold Varner +10000
  • Kevin Streelman +10000
  • Patrick Rodgers +10000
  • Lanto Griffin +10000
  • Lucas Glover +10000
  • Emiliano Grillo +12500
  • Patton Kizzire +12500
  • Hayden Buckley +12500
  • Taylor Moore +12500
  • Aaron Rai +12500
  • Henrik Norlander +12500
  • Doug Ghim +12500
  • Kramer Hickok +12500
  • Taylor Pendrith +12500
  • Dylan Frittelli +12500
  • Danny Lee +12500
  • Adam Svensson +12500
  • Troy Merritt +12500
  • Vincent Whaley +12500
  • Zach Johnson +12500
  • Andrew Putnam +12500
  • Tom Hoge +12500
  • Hudson Swafford +15000
  • Robert Streb +15000
  • Rory Sabbatini +15000
  • Martin Laird +15000
  • John Huh +15000
  • Alex Smalley +15000
  • Wyndham Clark +15000
  • Scott Piercy +15000
  • Chad Ramey +15000
  • Brandt Snedeker +15000
  • Matthew NeSmith +15000
  • C.T. Pan +15000
  • Francesco Molinari +15000
  • Adam Schenk +17500
  • Harry Higgs +20000
  • Nick Taylor +20000
  • J.J. Spaun +20000
  • Dylan Wu +20000
  • Greyson Sigg +20000
  • Nick Hardy +20000
  • Scott Stallings +20000
  • Davis Riley +20000
  • Brian Stuard +20000
  • Cameron Young +20000
  • Sahith Theegala +20000
  • Hank Lebioda +20000
  • Sepp Straka +20000