2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Detroit Golf Club
Most golf handicappers consider the Rocket Mortgage Classic a simple putting contest. I believe winning in the Motor City takes more than just a prolific putter. The tournament started four years ago, and each edition has been hosted by the Detroit Golf Club. A suburban setting of 36 holes designed by Donald Ross the championship course is collection from both courses.
- The par-72 scorecard measures 7,370 yards.
- There are a traditional amount of par 4s (10), par 5s (four), and par 3s (four).
- Water comes into play on one hole and there are 87 bunkers.
- The composite course routing includes the North and the South Course.
- Front nine: North 8, 9, South 1, North 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- Back Nine: North 10-18 (in order)
The region where DGC sets was hit by storms on Sunday night into Monday morning. The course took severe tree and grandstand damage. Thankfully, nobody was hurt, and the maintenance crews will have the grounds ready in time for round one. Nearly an inch of rain (.92) fell in the storm. That doubled the amount of rainfall Detroit has received in June. Like most of the Northeast, it has been dry. The surface may have been softened a touch by the rain, but overall, the course is in championship shape.
The field is 156 players is competing for $8.8 million and $1.584 million for first place. Seven of the top 25 (37 of the top 100) are on property to try and stop Tony Finau from defending his title. The +1200 favorite from one year ago won the Rocket Mortgage in record scoring fashion (26 under par). In four rounds, he had 27 birdies and ONE bogey! Similar scoring will be needed to contend on Sunday.
Last week’s winner Keegan Bradley is in the field. He and the rest who competed in Connecticut just torched the Travelers making well over 1,500 birdies. I know it is summertime on the PGA Tour, but that’s more than hot. Fact is, successfully taking home the Rocket Mortgage trophy follows a similar blueprint. The players must create as many birdie chances (putts of 15 feet or less) as possible. The average winning score at Detroit Golf Club over the past four years is 23 under par.
Temperatures are expected to be hot and humid so the ball will be flying. That matches one of the skill sets needed to succeed. Players here average 13 yards more than the Tour average off the tee. Each will give up a little accuracy for length on the Donald design. Just look at the four winners: Tony Finau, Nate Lashley, Cam Davis, and Bryson DeChambeau. Each average over 300 yards off the tee.
The Travelers is a perfect preview from an approach perspective. The men will need the same clubs to be accurate as 63% of the approach shots happen between 100-175 yards to the hole. The average cutline is 3 under par, so getting inside the top 65 and ties through 36 holes will take an aggressive game plan. Detroit Golf Club has four par-5s, so start by bombing away there. Alongside those hot and humid temperatures, there is some rain in the forecast for Thursday night, Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitation will only make those greens more receptive to scoring. Birdie-or-better percentage is the key to winning and that’s why most consider this just a flatstick affair. I believe you will need plenty of power off the tee. Then scoring savvy takes over and only those great with a wedge should apply at the Rocket Mortgage. The greens average 5,150 square feet so collecting as many GIRs from 175 and in is really the major priority.
Converting those birdie putts counts, but realistically players need to hit it close. The proximity leaders will create 35+ of those 15-foot (or less) opportunities over 72 holes. The scoring recipe is straightforward, and we have plenty of warm putters from last week to choose from. Around the green skill only matters if you are trying to get up and down for birdie. Bogey avoidance may keep you below par, but it won’t keep you in contention.
This shootout requires a healthy balance of a couple skills. Start with power off the tee and give me grace upon approach. Your winner will excel on both par 5s and 4s. Their proximity to hole will be elite and without a doubt they will gain four or more strokes against the field with the flatstick. When it comes to my Win, Place and Show, I am favoring all-star performers who are hungry for a late season win. It never hurts to have a little fire on Fourth of July weekend.
Win: Rickie Fowler
Rickie Fowler has finished top 15 or better in eight of his last nine starts. The slumping star has looked solid from tee-to-green all season and is going to win this week. Over his last 10 starts, Fowler has gained an average of seven strokes against the field. Rickie’s flatstick is back and the approach game is just as great. The popular pro is ranked first in par-5 scoring and second in birdie-or-better percentage. He’ll continue the hot play from L.A. and finally complete this comeback. Take Rickie Fowler (+1400 SI Sportsbook) to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Last week's pick: We picked Tommy Fleetwood to keep the U.S. Open final-round mojo going, alas he missed the cut.
Place: Hideki Matsuyama
One guy who has been equally impressive with his recent ball striking is Hideki Matsuyama. A birdie machine, Matsuyama ranks first in the field strokes-gained tee-to-green and proximity to the hole. Hideki is also first in par-4 scoring and second in strokes-gained approach. He is hitting it so good, he will contend even if his putter doesn’t perform. Take Hideki Matsuyama to finish top 20 (-105 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Xander Schauffele was our pick to place in the top 10, alas he finished T19.
Showdown: Sungjae Im over Justin Thomas
My showdown strategy is well-known to the readers; look for a weakness and take advantage. Justin Thomas finished ninth at the Travelers last weekend after two missed cuts in a row. He still doesn’t have the putter completely cured and he will need it to contend. Sungjae Im has been far more consistent this season. With five top 10s and a very solid all-around Travelers experience, Im is ready to blast past Thomas. Take Sungjae Im over Justin Thomas head-to-head.
Last week's pick: Winner! We picked Russell Henley over Collin Morikawa, and when Morikawa surprisingly missed the cut, that was all we needed to cash. Henley finished T19.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Collin Morikawa +1400
Rickie Fowler +1400
Tony Finau +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Justin Thomas +1600
Tom Kim +1600
Max Homa +1800
Sungjae Im +1800
Keegan Bradley +2500
Cam Davis +3300
Brian Harman +4000
Austin Eckroat +4500
Byeong Hun An +4500
Ludvig Aberg +4500
Stephan Jaeger +4500
Alex Smalley +5000
Chris Kirk +5000