2023 Valspar Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Innisbrook Resort
Thanks to the world’s newly No. 1-ranked player, we now have two wins in three weeks on the PGA Tour. Just as the Florida Swing is about to wrap up, we find ourselves on fire in the Sunshine State.
Eighty-five of the 144 players who competed at the Players Championship have made the trek across Florida to compete in the Valspar Championship.
- Seven of the top 30 (22 of top 100) in OWGR are competing for an $8.1 million purse.
- The top 65 and ties will play this weekend trying to win $1.458 million for first place.
The Innisbrook Resort and its Copperhead course is the venue. Annually one of the top eight toughest on the PGA TOUR, the last leg of the Florida swing has some bite.
- The scorecard reads 7,340 yards and is a par 71.
- There are five par 3s, four par 5s, and nine par 4s.
- 74 bunkers adorn the landscape along with nine holes where water comes into play.
- Just like last week, the course has been overseeded on the greens with Poa trivialis and the rough with rye grass.
We nailed the Players narrative and I believe we can lock in again on the Copperhead. In the last five years, there have been two different winners as Sam Burns (2021-22) and Paul Casey (2018-19) both won back-to-back. When you look at their winning skill sets, there’s three very distinct trends. The Copperhead course is a very specific test. Like last week, the competitors must be accurate.
The biggest difference between the two host courses comes in the length of approach shots. Nearly 50% of the iron shots at Innisbrook come from 175 yards or longer. Not many courses test your mid-to-long iron game like this. That is why when we look at Burns, Casey, and the rest of the recent winners these traits stand out.
- Approach play is the biggest differentiator in this field. With so many iron shots coming in from 175 yards and longer, players must hit as many greens in regulation (GIR) as possible. The tournament history tells us players are only successful 60% of the time, well below the Tour average.
The impact of this advantage can really be seen on the par 3s. The collection of five play a half-shot over par (+.55) and 28% of your 72-hole score will come from these holes. With a perfect lie on the tee box, playing these holes for the week under par is a priority. If you do, your iron game will put you in contention like the past champions.
- Since the players miss approximately 40% of their greens on the Copperhead, short-game scoring skill has helped each of those champs to the title. In the last decade, winners have gained nearly three shots (2.7) on the field from around the green. Scrambling sets them apart so much that it is triple the average amount gained by leaders off the tee (0.7).
The Copperhead Course is one of, if not the most, positional courses the men play from off the tee. Eleven of the 13 tee shots have fairway movement. By forcing players to drive the ball into the same exact landing areas, the proximity contest becomes even more impactful. Not to mention scoring from short range when they miss.
- Tough courses test you all the way into the hole. The Copperhead course is no different. Players miss well more than Tour average from five feet and in. Please don’t read into the overseed arguments or Bermudagrass storylines. I have spoken with multiple elite coaches at TPC Sawgrass where they overseed the same way. These greens aren’t very grainy. In fact, they will putt like bentgrass when mown this tight.
In looking through this field, we need a great putter to win here, or have the propensity for the putter to get hot. Winners have gained over five strokes (5.3) against the field in the last 10 years. As a PGA coach, I include putting with short game. There’s no doubt the winner on Sunday will as well.
The forecast in Palm Harbor, Fla., looks a little unpredictable. Temperatures outside of Tampa will range from high 60s to mid-70s. Innisbrook is located a little over a mile from the Gulf of Mexico. The wind is predicted to blow in the low teens, but as we saw last week, coastal breezes can change significantly. Over the weekend, rain is expected with an 80% chance on Saturday and then another 60% on Sunday.
The superintendent’s report made a point to mention the rough height has been increased from three inches to 3.75”. I guess Burns winning back-to-back with scores of 17 under par was not appreciated. I bet the teeth will be sharp this week in the 2023 edition. Get ready for a big dose of “snake pit” talk as well. The closing three holes on the Copperhead course are tough. They have an average bogey rate of 21%.
To navigate those holes and the 15 others, stick to the story outlined above. Get the ball in the fairway and hit greens in regulation. Keep the short game sharp and score when you can from close range. Par-5 scoring has been a strong indicator of recent success. Balance your birdie-or-better percentage with an ability to avoid bogeys. Prioritize these and the three trends listed earlier in the article. When you do, the win, place, show for the Valspar Championship reads like this.
Win: Denny McCarthy
Our winner this week has the fifth best scoring average on the Copperhead in this field. Denny McCarthy is great on courses where short game and putting makes a big difference. Perennially the best putter on the PGA Tour, Denny will seize those short putts. His short game rivals that flatstick and the approach game has gained strokes over his last five starts. He finished T13 at the Players and T14 at the Genesis Invitational. We can win three out of the last four weeks, just make sure your McCarthy bet +3300 (SI Sportsbook) is in before Thursday.
Last week's pick: Scottie Scheffler delivered at 10-1, and hope you got him pre-event at that price since it vanished fast once the event started.
Place: Wyndham Clark
The placement market was tough at the Players. Imagine losing over a million dollars in earnings like Taylor Montgomery did in his closing stretch of holes. Thankfully, the Copperhead course's finish is tough, but not nearly as volatile. Wyndham Clark’s iron game has been on fire. He has gained 3.7 strokes on approach over his last five starts. He’s made 10 cuts in a row dating back to October. At +163 (SI Sportsbook) you can pick him to finish in the Top 20. Clark is a great outright pick for Valspar so T20 is a very reasonable expectation.
Last week's pick: Justin Thomas made the cut on the number and didn't come close to rallying for a top-20.
Showdown: Ben Griffin Over Taylor Moore
Our head-to-head history is solid. This week, we are going to get behind another great rookie from the Korn Ferry Tour. Ben Griffin had a very respectable first trip to the Players (T35). With six top-40 finishes in 2023 in seven events, his accuracy off the tee and stellar short game makes him a very capable competitor. Taylor Moore is an equally good ball striker but can’t compete with Griffin around the greens. Take Griffin over Moore at the Valspar -110 (DraftKings) and keep collecting on matchups.
Last week's pick: A rare whiff in the matchup of Harris English over Brian Harman, as English missed the cut.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Matt Fitzpatrick +1400
Sam Burns +1600
Adam Hadwin +2200
Justin Rose +2200
Keegan Bradley +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Davis Riley +3000
Brian Harman +3300
Denny McCarthy +3300
Justin Suh +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Gary Woodland +4000
Ben Griffin +4500
Maverick McNealy +4500
Brandon Wu +5000